Status: 04.01.2024, 20:52 PM
By: Felix Herz
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Not only in Germany, but also in Bavaria, 2023 was the warmest year since weather records began. A look at the data shows the ominous trend.
Munich – Temperature fluctuations have always existed on Earth. But not in such a short time as in recent decades. In terms of geological history, the year 1881, in which weather records began, was just a blink of an eye ago. But the temperature has changed a lot in these little more than 142 years.
2023 in Bavaria: A year of extremes – Germany's hottest and coldest day in Bavaria
2023 was the warmest year since weather records began in Bavaria. According to the German Weather Service (DWD), "with an average temperature of 10.3 °C, the 10-degree mark was broken for the first time since records began".
Bavaria was a state of extremes. In Bavaria, there was the nationwide hottest day of the year (8.8 °C on 15 July in Möhrendorf-Kleinseebach in Middle Franconia) and the coldest day of the year nationwide (on 3 December with -18.9 °C in Gottfrieding in Lower Bavaria).
Temperature anomalies since 1881: New high in Bavaria in 2023
A look at the weather data confirms the trend of warming temperatures. For example, temperature anomalies: These data show how many degrees warmer or colder it has been compared to a set reference period. In order to show the development of the temperature as up-to-date as possible, one always chooses a reference period that is as close back as possible, but sufficiently long.
2023 was the warmest year in Bavaria since weather records began in 1881. The trend is easy to see when looking at the weather data. © German Weather Service / Wolfgang Maria Weber / IMAGO / Merkur-Collage
The annual temperature anomalies in Bavaria are compared with the years 1981-2010 in the DWD data. The temperature of each year is therefore compared with the temperature in the years of the reference period. These data not only show that since 2010, with one exception (2013), it has always been warmer than in the reference period.
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The increase in temperature in Bavaria is particularly evident in comparison with the reference period 1961-1990. © Time series and trends / German Weather Service
Of course, this is even more evident in comparison with the reference period 1961-1990. With the exception of 2010, it has been warmer than the average for the reference period in every year since 1997. Finally, 2023 represents the peak of this development for the time being.
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2023 also a very wet year: Repeated flood risk in Bavaria
"Almost 1005 liters per square meter of precipitation fell in the last twelve months," writes the German Weather Service in its annual report on Bavaria. In Germany in general, the climate was characterized by warm, humid conditions with high amounts of precipitation – in contrast to the warm years of previous years, which were interspersed with periods of heat and drought.
This can be explained by the rising temperatures. Dr. Jakob Zscheischler from the University of Bern explains in an interview with sciencemediacenter.de: "More than ten years ago, climate researchers predicted that extreme precipitation would be more severe and occur more frequently as a result of climate change. This is mainly due to the fact that a warmer atmosphere can absorb more water vapour, which then falls as rain during a precipitation event."
The number of extreme weather events is also increasing. However, not all of them can be directly explained by climate change – but their accumulation can. "If you have more energy in the atmosphere near the ground because greenhouse gas concentrations have risen and cause a higher heat content in the lower layers of the atmosphere, then you should assume that there will be more extreme events in the future from the point of view of physical plausibility alone," explains Professor Heiko Paeth from the Julius-Maximilian University of Würzburg at ard-alpha.de.
Many people in Bavaria can tell you a thing or two about this in 2023. In the last twelve months, there have been repeated floods throughout the Free State, each as a direct result of persistent rainfall. And hardly anyone will forget the heavy hailstorms until late summer, when the municipality of Bad Bayersoien, among other places, was devastated. And even now, at the beginning of 2024, the German Weather Service warns of continuous rain - there is a risk of flooding in the north of the Free State. (FHZ)
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