Tamar Herman
Democracy researcher
Senior Fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
Professor Emerita at the Department of Sociology, Political Science and Communication at the Open University
Prof. Tamar Hermann, during 2024, half of the world's population is expected to vote in democratic elections to be held around the globe. According to The Economist, this will be the most democratic year in history; On the other hand, we know that some democracies exhibit authoritarian features. Is the year ahead likely to be the year of popular rule, or just a misrepresentation of it?
"Even if half the world's population votes this year, that doesn't mean the election will be democratic. Non-democratic regimes also pride themselves on holding elections. In 2007, 97% voted for Assad in Syria. Even in the USSR during its most totalitarian periods, 'democratic' elections were held. Today there is a certain cheapening of the word democracy. Only a few countries do not boast of the word democracy by their official name, even though in many of them elections are nothing more than procedure rather than substance."
Prof. Tamar Hermann, Photo: Yehoshua Yosef
The difference between democracy and dictatorship has become elusive over the years.
"There is a continuum of regimes between absolute dictatorship and ideal democracy. There has never been a perfect democracy, and there are even signs in quite a few places around the world of disillusionment with the democratic regime in its liberal form, which is a relatively new type of regime that does not always meet expectations from it. Moreover, we have seen quite a few modern, supposedly elaborate democracies collapse, such as the Weimar Republic. In historical terms, modern liberal democracy does not have a good record of its life expectancy."
Nor is the relative longevity of a democratic regime an insurance against decline.
"That's true. The erosion of regimes can stem not necessarily from their own values or structures, but, for example, from economic distress. It is known that the peaks of the French Revolution came after increases in bread prices. To your question, the fathers of liberal, representative democracy believed and even convinced millions that this form of government would bring good to the entire population. In practice, these promises were not fully fulfilled. Not only does not everyone enjoy the democratic 'good', but we often see the development of elites with narrow interests, as predicted by the 'iron law of the oligarchy'.
Two girls celebrate New Year's Eve in India, Photo: AFP
I mean?
"Even in a democracy, when a group has been in power for too long, there are phenomena of interested, uncontrolled use of governmental power, and even corruption. At this stage, there is a distance between the government and the electorate. The oligarchy is therefore often tempted to harm the authorities so that it cannot be replaced, and a coup d'état is created. Economic crises also highlight the presence of an oligarchy, albeit informally: since the 2008 crisis, there have been harsh claims by citizens in the United States that the democratic regime betrayed them, which led not only to Wall Street protests but also to the rise of Trump.
"Following the crisis, we saw deals between the government and banks in the US, and there was a widespread feeling in wide circles of the public that perhaps capital-government relations are more important than relations between the government and its voters. In practice, the great promise of democracy disappointed many. Sometimes, during a global crisis, the regime does try to act in the public interest, but an image is created that it is inattentive and may even exploit the situation to its advantage. During the coronavirus, the restrictions imposed were interpreted more than once or twice as if the government had interests that caused it to restrict civil liberties."
Anti-Assad poster at Druze demonstrations in Syria, photo: AP
This has to do with the fact that liberal democracies are inherently slow and cumbersome.
"But this slowness often goes against the public's desire for a quick response. Nor do their leaders have the aura of kings, although some sections of the public yearn for a high-ranking ruler, just as the clothes of the tsars in Russia included longer sleeves than their hands. Why? To show that they are doing nothing with their hands. In democracies, too, there are parts of the public that see this as a natural derivative of the ruling class – that those at the top allow themselves actions for which others are held accountable."
Is this the governmental order that the public thirsts for?
"Especially in times of uncertainty, many citizens like to feel that there is a kind of 'big father.' After Stalin's reign of terror fell, after Khrushchev's speech and perestroika, people admitted their longing for Stalin's rule. They said: We knew what had to be done, what the rules were. We knew what to expect. Democracy leaves citizens more self-responsible, and a lot of people don't like self-responsibility."
The citizen as a child
It is also important to say that democracy, in the Western sense of the term, is not suitable for every country. In our background conversation, you told me about an interesting anecdote on this subject.
"For years I have been participating in a forum with representatives from across the Middle East. In one of the working groups I participated in about a decade ago, we discussed the question of how to take undemocratic regimes and transfer them processes of change to democracy. After the collapse of the hopes brought about by the Arab Spring, we met again, and the participants from Arab countries assured the participants from the West that we had cultivated in them the illusion that democracy fits everywhere, and that the toolbox we gave them did not suit their societies at all. They said that we had misled them, that we had not warned them that in order for democracy to grow, cultural and other preconditions are needed."
They could have stopped, adapted the needs to their countries.
"But that's exactly the childish situation: People like someone to take them by the hand, and if something doesn't work, it's supposedly blame on whoever tried to lead them."
So those representatives of the Arab states believed that democracy, in retrospect, was not suitable for their countries. Do democratic ideas fit Israel?
"Israel sees itself as part of Western society. De facto, large parts of the Israeli public, certainly during the years of the Great Migration, did not come from a background of democratic regimes. It is very difficult to instill relevant values when large parts of the public do not come from a democratic political culture or do not value it as worthy."
Another relevant point is that the State of Israel is in constant conflict with its surroundings.
"Therefore, it is difficult to reach a balance between the security reality and democratic needs. We know how quickly the United States threw away some of its democratic values after September 11. Emergency regulations did not come from democratic tradition. If Israel had legislated a constitution at the outset, the rules of the game here would have been much clearer. But unfortunately we don't have a constitution, and there wasn't a constitutional moment when we could say: reset the clock and write a constitution."
Wasn't the reform of the judicial system such a moment?
"You saw what an internal rift this experience caused. Imagine what would happen if they wanted to write an entire constitution. Entire populations would fight to the point of bloodshed. This still happened relatively moderately following the attempt at government reform. Kaplan's protest was based on massive economic and other fundraising by groups that saw the reform as a fatal blow to the foundations of democracy. They were confronted by those who claimed with no less self-conviction that the protesters were harming democracy – because they were opposing the move of an elected government."
Most Israelis - on the Right
We are at the end of a dramatic week in which the High Court of Justice struck down Basic Law: Reasonableness on Cole's Side. Were you excited about what happened here before October 7 when it comes to reforming the justice system?
"The answer is complex. I am convinced that the changes they wanted to introduce were biased by political interests, and no effort was made by the initiators to pass them in a more acceptable version. Their transfer would have harmed the governmental system. But even the activity of the other side was not without problems. For example, not all of the people of Israel were there, but a very specific group from a socio-demographic point of view. And this group also did not strive for understandings, which exacerbated the conflict. It may be worth noting that the protest movement was a citizens' movement, but it was the government itself that stood up to it. The few and relatively small right-wing demonstrations were largely organized by officials in and around the government. At the same time, I was encouraged by the public debate surrounding the reform. It was the best citizenship lesson the State of Israel has ever received."
President Roosevelt (center) with British Prime Minister Churchill (right) and Stalin, photo: AP
What you say about Israeli democracy also comes up in the various surveys you conduct?
"Yes, we see a loss of trust in government institutions, and sometimes also in support for democratic values even among those who voted for incumbent governments. In addition, over the years we have seen a decline in trust in the Supreme Court. Then there will be those who will claim that it is only because of the 'poison machine'. But a poison machine manages to operate only against a suitable background. Anger against the judicial system began to simmer even before the reform. For example, for years we have been receiving large numbers of respondents in surveys who answer that the judicial system does not give equal treatment to all those who stand before it, and that the Supreme Court is ideologically biased and interferes too much in government decisions. As part of the country's rehabilitation process, the judicial system also needs to make self-correction."
How will the war affect our democracy?
"We know what happened after the Yom Kippur War. Golda was re-elected, because sometimes the response at the ballot box is delayed."
Do you see a scenario in which Netanyahu is reelected?
"Possibly. It also depends on who will run against him. To an open question we recently asked, 'Who would you like to be prime minister after the war?' more than 20 percent answered Gantz, and 15 percent answered Netanyahu. Next in line received much lower percentages. So will the Golda case come back again? Hanging. It is important to remember that Golda accepted responsibility. Assuming Netanyahu does not accept responsibility, people can disavow him at the ballot box.
"Of course, there is also weight here in the way the state will deal with populations that traditionally vote for Netanyahu, for example in Ofakim, Sderot, Netivot. If the state doesn't take care of them, they may not vote at all. However, the likelihood that we will see an overall turnaround is quite low. Most Jewish Israelis, 55%-60%, are on the right. The left gets 12-14% and the center 30-35%."
How is the war expected to affect the local elections here in Israel?
"It depends on how the local authority operated during the war. Beyond that, the candidates did not have time to conduct a serious election campaign. I'm not sure we'll see dramatic exchanges."
From the perspective of history, when does democracy begin and end?
"Sometimes democracy begins after a revolution. Sometimes it is a centuries-old process, as in Britain, where the rights of the aristocracy were reduced and the rights of public participation were gradually expanded. Where does it collapse? Either in the form of collapse or reversibility, or gradual decline. In Trump's case, many worried about the end of American democracy. That didn't happen, and I doubt it will happen even if he's reelected. There is a Constitution there, and the Supreme Court justices appointed by Trump are also loyal to the values of the Constitution."
As the years go by, will we see a greater transition from substantive democracies to flawed, procedural democracies?
"There are many elements that can influence the global political future. For example, the climate crisis. In the event that the climate becomes extreme, regimes will have to deal with extreme situations, and these challenges do not always allow democratic means to suffice. I'm talking about moving populations within the country or preventing migration from entering disaster areas. Moreover, terrorism has led to the erosion of democratic principles in the past. But in the end, it all comes down to the question of how much people will feel that the government is meeting their needs."
Can 2024 be remembered as a turning point due to the many elections that will take place there?
"As I said, dystopias make me doubt. The good is not always as good as we imagine, and the bad is not always as bad as we fear. The truth lies in the gray areas, in the middle. Even after wars and epidemics, there are stabilizing factors in the world. People prefer stability, not dramatic changes."
So democracy is here to stay?
"Global democracy is undergoing changes and acting in accordance with the challenges it faces. As long as it tackles the challenges with reasonable success, it is here to stay. As for Israel, I don't see the collapse of Israeli democracy in the near future.
"Our advantage as a people is that we do not surrender to one authority. We are a people that is difficult to control, in the positive sense, and difficult to lead, in the negative sense. It would be difficult, if not impossible, to turn us into a public that cooperates with a dictatorial regime. At the same time, we have a lot of construction work to do – to create a common identity here. At the moment, many people in the Jewish people believe that there is no unifying identity factor in Israel. And if we don't succeed in creating such a unifying factor, external enemies, and perhaps internal ones, will be waiting for us around the corner."
Wrong? We'll fix it! If you find a mistake in the article, please share with us