1. The Hamas leadership was dealt a blow but was not completely eliminated. So far, 3 very senior heads of the terrorist organization have been eliminated. Salah Arouri – "commander of the West Bank" who was based in Beirut, Ahmad Ghandour – "commander of the northern Gaza Strip," and Ayman Nofal – "commander of the central Gaza Strip." In addition to them, dozens of battalion commanders and company commanders of the military wing were eliminated. This is an attack that should not be taken lightly, because it affects Hamas' ability to carry out attacks. Not to mention that at least 8,000 terrorists were killed in battle, and many thousands more were wounded. In addition, hundreds, if not thousands, of wanted Hamas operatives were detained in the Judea and Samaria area.
If you go up a floor, then these are the dry data:
In power: 8 out of 21 members killed
Military wing command: 3 out of 12 killed (Ghandour, Nofal, Ayman Siyam)
In the General Bureau: Apart from 5 representatives who overlap with the military and governmental leadership in Gaza, there are another 13 members. Of the 13, one senior operative has been killed so far, Saleh Arouri.
In summary: 12 out of 46 people in the leadership were eliminated. 26%.
This is a start, and the elimination of most of the governmental and military leadership will lead to organizational collapse. What Hamas is already planning is to try to survive at least as a party, and somehow integrate into the PLO. This is a form that it believes will enable it to rehabilitate, and this must be prevented by striving for total annihilation.
2. Hamas battalions. Of the 24 battalions, at least 15 collapsed. This includes the two northern brigades (12) and three battalions in the Khan Yunis area, where two more battalions are believed to remain functioning. It can be said that about 60% of the organized military force has been destroyed. Within a few months, it can be assumed that the remaining battalions will be disbanded and the IDF will completely remove the threat of raids on the surrounding communities. It should be noted that the battalions in Rafah (3) and the central camps (4) are weaker than those in Khan Yunis and the northern Gaza Strip.
3. The rocket and aerial systems (drones). Most of the members of these systems were eliminated. In addition, many rocket factories and missile stockpiles were destroyed. That is why there has been a tendentious and steep decline in launches from the Gaza Strip in general and from the center in particular. According to statistics, there is a steep decline from dozens of launches to single launches.
Still, Hamas tries to falsely pretend that it is functioning normally, and therefore sought the timing of New Year's Eve in order to maximize a cognitive effect. Even when he fires at the center, he will do it ahead of prime time so that our commentators can say that Hamas is still firing rockets after three months. The organization also exploits humanitarian zones where tens of thousands are staying.
4. Abductees. Out of 250 people, 110 have been released alive, 107 remain in captivity, 11 have been murdered and their bodies returned, and 22 bodies of civilians and soldiers are still being held in Gaza. In other words, many of the abductees were released. If Hamas is pushed further to the wall, it will have no other choice but to reach a second agreement for the release of the hostages. The longer the cuts by the ruling leadership abroad and in Gaza continue, the closer it will get. In such a situation, we will hopefully reach a large majority of the abductees who will be returned alive.
5. These are tactical achievements. But is there also a strategic change of the map? This is really difficult to measure, but it can be said that Hamas is on its way to losing control of the Gaza Strip, and the Palestinians will also lose territory from it because of the security zone that the IDF is building along the border.
Moreover, the northern Gaza Strip has been destroyed to such an extent that it is impossible to live there. The mayors of northern Gaza held a press conference this week in which they said they were unable to provide basic services and that the infrastructure in the area had been shut down. So in practice, the Palestinians lost 50% of the area of the Gaza Strip, which was reduced to rubble. In addition, the southern Gaza Strip has become a refugee camp with all that entails. Over time, they will remember who brought this disaster upon them.
6. What are Hamas' strategic achievements? First of all, the evacuation of tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes in the border areas – in the south and north. Besides, he doubled his approval ratings among Palestinians in the West Bank. It created a social rift over the issue of abductees, and led to damage to normalization contacts with Arab countries, and to Israel's standing in the world. These achievements are temporary and depend mainly on whether Israel goes all the way and completely destroys Hamas.
7. If Israel does not do so, and is forced into a political process courtesy of the American administration, Hamas will get credit for it, become the master of the Palestinians and over time will take over the West Bank. Therefore, the first condition for canceling Hamas's achievements is its ongoing destruction, so that it will be rewarded with its loss. An amorphous achievement such as "restoring deterrence in the region," as one senior military official put it, must not suffice.
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