The United States is interested in seeing an end to the fighting in Gaza while calming the fighting against Hezbollah and the return of the residents to the northern settlement. In the spirit of the agreements with Hezbollah from the period of Operation Grapes of Wrath in the 90s, the Biden administration is pushing Israel to officially announce the end of the second phase of the war in Gaza, while at the same time advancing understandings with Hezbollah that will lower the flames.
IDF Chief of Staff on the Lebanese Border: We are in very strong readiness in the north, focusing on the fighting in Gaza // IDF Spokesperson
Biden's envoy to the Middle East, Amos Hochstein, who was in charge of the controversial gas agreement, laid out to the political echelon last week the American plan to avoid war on the northern border.
Israel will take the first step and America will mediate
According to the plan presented to Netanyahu, Galant and Gantz, Israel will officially announce the end of the second phase of the war in Gaza in the coming weeks. The Americans will mediate this declaration to Hezbollah as a kind of pretext to stop the attacks on Israel, and at the same time the residents of the north will be returned to their homes.
In other words, without reaching understandings at first – at least according to Hochstein's "vision" – Israel will return the residents of the north to their homes, and Hezbollah, which is not interested in escalation, will not fire on the houses that were repopulated.
Hochstein meeting with Galant and senior defense officials, photo: Ariel Hermony, Ministry of Defense
The political echelon in Israel expressed opposition to Hochstein's plan, according to which the residents would return to their homes even before the "understandings" were established. This is also the reason for the firm announcements issued after the meeting with him by Galant and Netanyahu, according to which a fundamental change in the border is required.
In meetings with him over the weekend, Hochstein was made unequivocally clear in Israel that "Israel is headed for a political settlement, but it is preparing for war." This is what both Netanyahu and Gantz said this morning regarding total support in the cabinet regarding the need to remove the threat politically or militarily.
Hochstein in Beirut, Blinken on his way to Israel
Hochstein was sent to Beirut and from there he is expected to return to Israel with what will succeed in detracting from Hezbollah's willingness to stop firing on communities on the border. Hochstein was told that Israel demanded that the threat of raids on the communities and gunfire be removed not only as a reality that would emerge on the ground, but as a result of an initial signed memorandum of understanding. This gap still exists between Israel and the United States, and this week Secretary of State Blinken will land here to once again press against war in the north.
What is still agreed? Israel is ready for a memorandum of understanding similar to the operation in Lebanon in the 90s. At that time, Israel launched a series of attacks against Hezbollah in order to stop the attacks on Israel, while this operation ended under pressure from the UN and with the establishment of understandings mediated by the United States called "Grapes of Wrath understandings."
The document states that Hezbollah agrees not to fire at Israel anymore and not to harm civilians, population centers and civilian facilities. Will these understandings be reached after a large-scale airstrike campaign or initially? The Americans now have to solve this in a short window of time.
Lebanon. The assassination zone of senior Hamas figure Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut's Dahiya neighborhood, photo: Reuters
At the center of the dispute is another issue for which Blinken will also arrive in Israel this week: the transition to phase three of the war in Gaza, which includes an IDF withdrawal from some of the battle zones in the northern Gaza Strip. As stated, the United States demands an official Israeli declaration on the planned move, but the army opposes such a declaration that could harm the goals of the war. Not only that, but internally, a declaration of withdrawal and an end to part of the war could trigger internal Israeli protests that Netanyahu and Galant are not interested in.
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