The northern sector experienced yesterday (Tuesday) one of the most turbulent and tense days since the beginning of the campaign three months ago.
Since morning, Hezbollah has launched dozens of armed drones, as well as rockets and anti-tank missiles, at several targets in the north, and even managed to hit the Northern Command headquarters in Safed. This was Hezbollah's second attempt to hit a strategic target in the north, after the attack on the air traffic control base in Meron. In contrast to the first attack, which caused damage, the air defense system succeeded in intercepting most of the vehicles aimed at the Northern Command, and the damage to it was only minor.
Artillery crew in the north (archive), photo: AFP
The escalation in Hezbollah's activity is a direct result of assassinations attributed to Israel. While the attack on Meron was carried out in retaliation for the assassination of senior Hamas figure Salah al-Arouri last week, the attack yesterday morning followed the assassination of the new commander of the Radwan forces Wissam al-Tawil, who was a close associate of Hassan Nasrallah and a confidant of the Iranian Quds Force. Later, Ali Hussein Burji, who was Hezbollah's drone commander in southern Lebanon, was also assassinated, and it seems that his operatives continued launching to avenge his death.
Hezbollah commander Wissam Tawil's car after it was hit, Photo: AP
The IDF used these attacks to escalate its responses. In addition to hitting Hezbollah's headquarters and infrastructure along the border and in the Shiite villages of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah's strategic targets north of the Litani were also attacked, including surface-to-air missile batteries and other weapons. At the same time, Israel is careful not to act too forcefully, which would require Hezbollah to respond that could drag the sides into an all-out campaign.
Israel and Hezbollah have overlapping interests in the short term and conflicting interests in the long term. At this time, both sides are careful to clash on the border, and are careful not to deviate from it. Hezbollah thus contributes its part to Hamas' war in Gaza and to the radical axis that acts against Israel, but without being dragged into a war that will wreak havoc on Lebanon and its people. Israel manages to fight in the north without diverting most of the attention and forces to it, which continue to be focused on the main effort to defeat Hamas in Gaza.
Reservists train in the Golan Heights amid rising tensions on the northern border, Photo: Getty Images
This state of affairs also serves Hezbollah in the long run. It is indeed paying a price in infrastructure and people (some 150 of its operatives have been killed so far), but this is tactical damage that can be rehabilitated within a short time, and it is certainly not a change in the equation on the northern border. Israel, on the other hand, is in trouble because it promised residents of the north that they would return to their homes only after the threat of the presence of Radwan forces on the border was lifted – something that is not currently in sight.
This threat can be removed in one of two ways – political or military. The Americans are pressing for an agreement that will prevent war, and Israel is allowing them to hold talks on the issue in order to gain legitimacy for a future war. Still, even if such an agreement is reached, it is doubtful whether it will be honored by Hezbollah, which has already flagrantly violated Security Council Resolution 1701, which was reached after the Second Lebanon War.
A shopping center empty of people on the northern border, photo: AFP
As usual, the Israeli leadership does not share its plans with the public, but it seems that the reasonable outline is that some kind of agreement will be reached that will bring calm to the border area, following which the residents will be allowed to return. The IDF will remain in the region with very large forces to ensure that an October 7-style attack is not carried out in the north, but the threat itself seems far from removed at the moment.
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