By trickery you will make war, not only on the battlefield but also in the political arena. This seems to explain the current move of the campaign in Gaza to the next stage. A hint of this was provided last night at a meeting of the Likud faction by the prime minister when he said: "International room for maneuver is required and we are working to preserve it."
Blinken: "Israel cannot manage the Gaza Strip" (Nov. 08, 11) // Reuters
What does this mean? The Israeli announcements of "moving to the next stage" were issued ahead of the arrival in Israel of Secretary of State Antony Blinken. At the same time, President Biden announced that he had quietly worked with Israel to "significantly reduce its presence in Gaza." His envoy for Iranian affairs, Avram Paley, makes it clear that "the United States is not looking for a confrontation with Iran" – a message that is no worse so as not to deter Iran. In this feeble atmosphere comes Blinken, who is considered the toughest marker in the US administration towards Israel. With Biden focused on the election and Secretary of State Austin in hospital, Blinken is the one left free to take care of us — that's what's there.
To alleviate Blinken's pressure on the war in advance, Israel announced a "transition to the next stage." That way, the War Cabinet could tell him, "Mr. Secretary, we've already shifted gears in Gaza. There is a limit to how much you can ask of us. Now it's your turn to give us something in return."
"Moving to the next level." Fighting in Gaza (archive), photo: IDF Spokesperson
And what is that reward? Israel wants American backing for the inevitable campaign in the north – a campaign that the administration insists on preventing. Israel may need an American veto in the Security Council against a future ICC decree. In addition, reducing military pressure in part of the Gaza Strip may improve the atmosphere for a hostage deal. All this in return for a phase that was already planned three months ago and which suits many of the IDF's needs.
It's not perfect, and last night's barrage into the center demonstrates that there is a risk in the new operational phase. In the end, Hamas can return to any area evacuated, and there is, of course, a risk to the soldiers still in the Gaza Strip. The promises made by Netanyahu and Galant to continue the war for months to come, and these changes – if they come – may explain the rationale behind Israel's moves.
Israel wants American backing. Fighting in the north, photo: AFP
Throw a political bone to get a lot of military meat. At the end of the day, it's an election year in the United States, and Blinken also understands that if Israel shouts "Gewald," his party will be hurt at the ballot box.
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