As a snowstorm blankets the state, Iowa residents will go out on Monday to choose their Republican presidential candidate.
Over the years, Iowa's elections have been tense and dramatic, but with former President Donald Trump continuing to lead by tens of percentage points over his rivals, it seems that this time the election will be in second place. A recent analysis of polls conducted by ABC News shows Trump leading with an average of 51.3 percent, well ahead of former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley at 17.3 percent. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis gets 16.1% and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy 6.6%. If the former president does reach the approval ratings predicted by Iowa polls, he will break Bob Dole's record of 1988% in 37.
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Iowa is one of the few states where there is no regular primary system, but rather a caucus, a historic and unique system in which registered Republicans gather at different sites—schools, churches, or private homes—to decide who their party's candidate is. This is a system in which voters are obliged to physically arrive at a predetermined predetermined compound according to their place of residence, on the assembly site they are divided into groups and together discuss each candidate aloud, and finally write their choice on a ballot. After receiving the results of the elections at the various assemblies, the party secretariat will announce the winning candidate. By the way, under the Iowa system, independents and Democrats can also attend the convention if they register as Republicans before the event. This time, however, the weather may be unfavorable, and there is a chance that many voters will choose to stay at home rather than go out to vote.
"I'm worried, but at the same time I see the news and they say Trump voters have so much more determination and dedication," Trump said during a live meeting with supporters at a Des Moines hotel over the weekend. "They say that if necessary, they will march on glass (to vote)."
Battle for second place
Haley and DeSantis also held events over the weekend. DeSantis' campaign said the time and effort put into the field would pay off. "It's going to be cold, it's going to be unpleasant, but if you want to go out and fight for me, then I, as president, will fight for you for the next eight years," DeSantis said.
"I will fight for you", Ron de Rantis, photo: AFP
Since Trump leads by tens of percentage points against his rivals, the real drama will be over second place. In recent months, Nikki Haley has gained unprecedented momentum. Along with receiving huge donations, successful appearances in televised debates and growing popularity within the party, the former ambassador manages to attract widespread attention and support, which translates into a rise in the polls. Presumably, this is why Trump decided to adopt a firm line against it. On the other hand, DeSantis, who started the race as a campaign promise with an impressive record as a conservative military man and governor, continues to shuffle with a campaign that has weakened in recent months, even losing second place to Haley in some polls. If he is not elected to second place in Iowa, it could accelerate his weakening, especially his political power with Haley. In recent days, Haley and DeSantis have invested in numerous grassroots events several times a day to try to reach as many local voters as possible.
Iowa Republicans hold conservative positions, especially on immigration and abortion. ABC News said that more than 80 percent of voters in the country see immigration as the issue that will decide who to vote for. To match Trump's tough policy on the issue, Haley promised in the current campaign that she would work to close the southern border. DeSantis proposed stationing a military force at the border. Other issues of concern to Iowa residents are abortion bans and the production of local fuel (ethanol).
Gaining unprecedented momentum, Nikki Haley, Photo: AFP
The results of the local elections are expected to be announced overnight between Monday and Tuesday (US time), but will not allow the chosen candidate to rest long. On the 23rd, the candidates will head to New Hampshire for the first primary, which is already shaping up to be very tense, with Haley tailing Trump by only a few percentage points.
How the method works
In the Republican system of selecting the presidential candidate, a total of 2,429 delegates are distributed, and the goal of each candidate is to receive at least 1,215 delegates that will bring him the coveted nomination. Iowa gives only 40 delegates to the chosen candidate, but it is best known as a state where campaigns kick into high gear and, in this case, hint at the future of Trump's opponents (see commentary).
In early March, Big Tuesday will take place, when Republicans will go out to vote in 15 states with the largest number of delegates. Toward the end of April, most of the party's delegates will be distributed, and in July, during the Republican convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the party's presidential nominee will be announced.
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