Status: 15/01/2024, 21:13 PM
By: Karsten Hinzmann
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Concentrated American firepower: Without more short-range ballistic missiles like the ATACMS, the course of the war looks bleak for Ukraine. But the U.S. is getting tired of war. © IMAGO/US Army /US Army
Volodymyr Zelensky is fighting on two fronts: against Russia's aggression and for US support. But they have other things in mind.
Kiev – The US president is becoming the focus of criticism - especially in his own country. Joe Biden is under fire in the US from accusations that he is starving Ukraine to death in its fight against dictator Vladimir Putin's Russia. The bone of contention is the American Himars air defense system (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) including modern Atacms missiles (Army Tactical Missile System). U.S. military experts tug at Biden and call for more exports to the Ukraine war; and the military leadership there is busy posting videos to convince American politicians of the sense of aid.
It is likely that Ukraine is trying to intimidate Russia and put pressure on Western supporters. Attacks are being made, for example, against the Republicans in the US Congress, against parts of the Democrats and, above all, against the person responsible: President Joe Biden. In addition, the governments of the United States' NATO partners are being criticized.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is fighting for its survival during the Russian invasion. At the same time, however, it is also about the steady supply of armaments from the West; for example, with Himars anti-aircraft missiles. Under the heading "War in the grey area of interfaces", the Bundeswehr also deals with the topic of "hybrid warfare" with a view to the behaviour of the two warring parties: Ukraine is creating a mood with its videos.
Head of state Zelensky's offensive advertising campaign: Ukraine issue divides societies
The pros and cons of constant support for Ukraine are beginning to divide Western societies and endanger NATO's unity. The physical destruction of armed forces is usually not the focus of hybrid warfare, writes the Bundeswehr. Since one of the essential features of hybrid warfare is to blur the boundaries of the battlefield, everything can ultimately become a target.
"The cohesion of a society can be attacked, as can the morality of an actor or the legitimacy of political objectives. All domains such as politics, diplomacy, economics, finance, but also the supply situation or critical infrastructure must be included as potential targets."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky now also has to deal with the war weariness of his partner countries in his constant advertising campaign in Europe. In the meantime, his tones have also become quieter: he demands less and asks more often. Nevertheless, more and more people doubt his credo that Ukraine is fighting on behalf of the world.
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Phillips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, wrote in the Wall Street Journal that the U.S. had denied the Ukrainians the weapons they needed to attack Russian targets. He questioned whether President Joe Biden really wants Ukraine to win. Newsweek also deals with this in detail and rolls out O'Brien's question about the extent to which Biden's policies are aimed at pushing Ukraine into a horse-trading with Russia for peace. According to O'Brien, the reluctance to supply weapons supports this thesis.
"By depriving Ukrainians of the ability to launch a sustained, far-reaching campaign against Russia, the administration is leaving Kyiv without the capability it needs to win," he added to Newsweek. He finds support in retired U.S. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges: The former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe has also repeatedly publicly called for Ukraine to be rearmed in such a way that it develops the capability to reconquer Crimea. Several observers assume that the decision on the Ukraine war will be made on the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.
Dictator Putin's Supposed Future: Defeat in Crimea
Both opponents see Crimea as the linchpin of the Ukraine war. Since its annexation in 2014, Russia has refused to recognise Crimea and its capital Simferopol as Ukrainian territory and to treat it autonomously. On the contrary, they used the time to develop Crimea into a military fortress, to build airfields, to deploy massive air defense systems and to have the Black Sea Fleet operate from there. Military economist Marcus Keupp told the tagesschau: "Crimea is not only the logistical center, it is also the military powerhouse of the entire Russian operation against Ukraine, and therefore it will also be the grand finale of the war and possibly faster than some will expect."
Both warring parties have made the enemy's air defense structures the focus of their attacks. "The efforts of both Russia and Ukraine to overcome their adversary's ground-based air defense systems continue to be one of the most important flashpoints of the war," the British Ministry of Defense said in early December 2023. The current largely motionless trench warfare is based on the fact that the opponents neutralize each other with their rocket artillery. This is precisely why the American Himars systems are invaluable, because Ukraine's depots are emptying faster than feared due to the doggedness of Russian attacks.
General Zaluzhny's Constant Videos: The Slow Recruitment of Supplies
A few weeks after the invasion, various media outlets even stylized the Himars as a "game changer": With the help of this system, the Ukrainian army could fire missiles from such a great distance that the self-propelled launch bases remained far beyond the range of Russian artillery. Without reloading, the multiple rocket launcher can fire six satellite-guided artillery rockets or an Atacms short-range ballistic missile. In the first case, depending on the ammunition used, it acts over a maximum range of 40 to 75 kilometers. Using an Atacms missile, it can reach targets up to 300 kilometers away. The system was put into service by the Americans in 2010 and has already been used in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.
38 launcher systems with corresponding missiles from US stocks have been delivered to Ukraine. Ukraine's Supreme Commander General Valery Zaluzhnyi recently released a video showing such a highly mobile artillery missile system in successful use amid ongoing fighting between Ukraine and Russia. Newsweek lists other videos that appear to have been released by the Ukrainian side to further illustrate the urgent need for a victory against Russia.
Historian Neitzel's gloomy perspective: Americans more focused on China
Germany's best-known military historian, Sönke Neitzel, had repeated to ARD at the end of November that Hamas' war against Israel alone had shifted the focus of the Americans in favor of Israel. However, Neitzel considers the situation in the Eastern European theater of war to be difficult above all because "the Republicans and parts of the Democrats have always said that the focus is actually China." In his opinion, the Americans are more likely to see the Europeans on the move to help Ukraine. "But we also know that without the United States, Ukraine would no longer exist; and without the US, Europe would also be unable to support Ukraine enough to continue this war."
Since September last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly visited the United States to secure further support. Basically, however, the American people's representatives are now asking themselves to what extent the war in Ukraine is still worthwhile for them. Die Zeit declares 2024 to be the president's fateful year. War weariness persists throughout the entire course of the war – over the front-line soldiers, their relatives and allied societies.
According to Die Zeit, even in Zelensky's own ranks, the tone is changing drastically: "Just a year ago, the US magazine Time chose Zelensky as Person of the Year 2022. In the meantime, even former companions attest to his high-handedness, resistance to advice and an increasingly authoritarian leadership style. Under Zelensky, Ukraine is by no means creating an "open liberal society based on the American model," said Oleksiy Arestovych, a former adviser in the president's office. Rather, it resembles an 'ultra-nationalist state' pumped full of US weapons."
Expert Majors: Ukraine should slowly be worn down
Criticism of the former comedian thrives on the frozen counteroffensive of the ground forces. The allies have long been engaged in escalating debates about the causes of this misery, combined with the question of whether and how something could change in 2024. After all, there is more and more open talk about the fact that the Russians would ultimately fight harder than everyone had hoped.
Experts also criticise the apparent lack of political will in the West for risks, even fearing that there could even be a strategy behind the crippling support, as Zeit Online has political scientist Claudia Major of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs conclude: "It seems as if they want to wear Ukraine down by the long arm until it comes up with the idea of to negotiate. However, the risk is very high. It is hubris to believe that war, a highly complex, sometimes anarchic process of violence, can be controlled in this way."
Although NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg tirelessly tries to invoke the close alliance between the defense pact and Ukraine as close, guarantees of assistance for Ukraine of any kind will remain utopian. The U.S. Congress is still awaiting a decision on a $61 billion package of aid for Ukraine. What if this American aid failed to materialize, Zeit Online asks Peter Rough, an expert on Eastern Europe at the U.S. think tank Hudson Institute: "Then the Ukrainian defense lines will most likely collapse, with potentially catastrophic consequences."