Iowa primaries in arctic temperatures - Blizzard plays into Trump's hands

Status: 15.01.2024, 21:59 PM

By: Christian Stör

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In Iowa, the Republican primaries are about to begin. Who plays the leading role: Trump, Haley, DeSantis or the freezing cold?

Des Moines – Now it's getting serious. In Iowa, Republican primaries begin on Jan. 15. This could be the first indication of who the Grand Old Party will send into the race for the White House in the 2024 US election. According to the latest polls, everything points to a clear victory for former US President Donald Trump.

Two questions in particular are therefore exciting: How well does Trump actually do in the Iowa primary? And who will secure second place? It boils down to a neck-and-neck race between former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

Anything less than a clear victory for Donald Trump in the Republican primary in Iowa would be a surprise. © CHRISTIAN MONTERROSA/AFP

Why is the Republican primary so important in Iowa?

In the U.S., the party base selects the candidate for the presidential election. Voting will take place in the 50 states, the Capital District and the overseas territories. The primaries are conducted by the respective states according to their own laws and rules. Each state then sends delegates to the respective party conventions in the summer, depending on its population size, where the formal nomination takes place. If you want to win the Republican primary, you have to get at least 1215,2429 votes out of a total of <>,<> delegates behind you.

In this respect, the rural state of Iowa has rather little significance. After all, only 40 delegate votes are up for grabs here. Much more important, however, is the momentum that a primary campaign develops on the basis of the previous results. Those who do well in the first primaries go into the later votes with a tailwind. Donald Trump is an example. In the 2016 election campaign, he laid the foundation for his later nomination with a second place in Iowa and a clear victory in New Hampshire. On the other hand, those who do poorly in Iowa after months of campaigning are likely to think twice about whether it is still worth continuing.

How is the Republican primary going in Iowa?

The primaries in the U.S. are organized in different ways depending on the state. Basically, they can be divided into "primary" (public primary election with voting at polling stations) and "caucus" (election meeting). Public elections are organised by regional authorities, while assemblies are organised by political parties. In most states, primaries are held, but not for Republicans in Iowa. They vote in the traditional form of the "caucus".

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Pre-U.S. primaries begin today in Iowa: Who is running for the Republicans

The process of this primary election is different from that of a normal vote. But what does this mean in concrete terms, especially for the people of Iowa? Well, on Monday evening (19:00 p.m. local time, 2:00 a.m. CET), the Republicans will march through ice and snow to their respective meeting places in the freezing cold. In schools, churches, community halls or sports halls in the 1700,<> electoral districts, they will debate Trump, Haley, DeSantis or whoever in small groups. As a rule, there is no fixed list of candidates. Eligible voters simply write a name on the ballot paper. Postal voting is not possible. Within a few hours, the Commission announced the results of the Iowa primary.

Will the weather throw a spanner in the works for Trump in the Republican primary in Iowa?

Due to these special election conditions, the weather could play a big role. In any case, a winter storm in Iowa has already slowed down the election campaign mightily in the run-up. Donald Trump, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis had to cancel planned appearances in Iowa at short notice over the weekend. The lowest temperatures in the small state in the Midwest of the USA were as low as minus 28 degrees. Snow and icy winds made for chaotic conditions. Almost all flights to the capital Des Moines were canceled, roads were closed.

The snow-capped Capitol in Des Moines, the seat of government of the U.S. state of Iowa, where the Republican primaries begin. © CHRISTIAN MONTERROSA/AFP

Even on the day of the Republican primary, the weather in Iowa is expected to remain frosty. For 15 January, temperatures of less than minus 30 degrees are predicted in some cases. This could mean that fewer people than usual will come to the vote in the evening. It is questionable who this could harm. Because Trump has a clear lead in the polls, his fans could think his victory is a foregone conclusion and not even go to the polls. On the other hand, Trump enjoys an enormous amount of popularity among his particularly committed fans. So the winter storm could also help him.

What's next after the Republican primary in Iowa?

It is important for Trump to win more than 50 percent of the vote in the Republican primary in Iowa. If he doesn't reach that mark, the competition still has a chance to defeat Trump, according to political analyst Alex Avetoom. A result below 50 percent would be "the first significant sign that Trump can be defeated," Avetoom is quoted as saying by the AFP news agency. Ultimately, however, this would only be possible if the remaining Republicans united "behind an anti-Trump candidate."

The next Republican primary is scheduled for January 23 in New Hampshire. Here, Haley was surprisingly close on Trump's heels in recent polls. After that, more primaries are scheduled in states such as South Carolina and Nevada. A milestone in the primary campaign will be "Super Tuesday" at the beginning of March with primaries in several important states. (cs)