Last updated: 16.01.2024, 05:18 a.m.
By: Kathrin Reikowski
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Germany is arming itself: A secret paper shows how the Bundeswehr could fend off a possible Russian attack. Preparations are already underway.
Berlin – Decades of certainties in Germany have been shaken by Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. Thus began a new era, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) put it. He emphasized the need to strengthen the Bundeswehr and defense spending. Germany has repeatedly supplied weapons to Ukraine.
Boris Pistorius (SPD), Germany's defense minister, has reportedly had a specific scenario developed to prepare the Bundeswehr for a possible Russian attack. The Bild newspaper exclusively reported on an alleged secret document, the authenticity of which, however, has not yet been confirmed by the Ministry of Defense. This is a hypothetical scenario. In fact, the German Ministry of Defense plans to send a brigade of about 2025,5000 soldiers to NATO country Lithuania from <> to strengthen the NATO alliance and deter Russia.
No information on the likelihood of confrontation with Russia
The Bild newspaper itself cannot assess the probability of the scenario from the secret paper. A spokesman did not provide any information about the possibly existing document, but only commented in general terms: "In principle, I can inform you that the consideration of different scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, is part of everyday military business, especially in training." The scenario published by Bild looks like training material that is supposed to prepare the German army for the worst possible emergency.
Minister Pistorius visits Bundeswehr soldiers in Lithuania in June. A secret document is said to show preparations for an attack by Russia. © IMAGO/Funke Foto Services
According to this scenario, the Bundeswehr would prepare for Russia to mobilize an additional 2024,200 soldiers as early as February 000. Due to the lack of Western arms support, Russia could make decisive progress in Ukraine in the spring of 2024 and prepare targeted cyberattacks on Western countries in early summer.
Scenario like at the beginning of the Ukraine war
In addition, in this scenario, Russia would initiate another form of hybrid warfare: it would try to incite ethnic Russian minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which could lead to conflicts. Russia could use this as a pretext for further escalation.
In September, Russia would launch the large-scale exercise "Zapad 2024" and deploy 50,000 troops in western Russia and Belarus. According to Bild, it would not be far from there to a troop build-up on the border of the NATO countries Poland and Lithuania. This scenario is reminiscent of the start of the war in Ukraine.
30,000 soldiers from Germany ready for emergencies
The troop build-up would begin with Russia playing a threat scenario to its exclave of Kaliningrad. At the same time, it would take advantage of a presumed weakness of the US after the elections (a decision between Joe Biden and Donald Trump) in September 2024 to trigger unrest at the so-called Suwalki Gap with several deaths and move more troops. The propaganda could suggest to the Russian population that ethnic Russians are also threatened by the West.
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In response, NATO would be forced to prevent a possible escalation in May 2025. Up to 300,000 NATO troops, including 30,000 from Germany, would then be deployed to the eastern flank. The exercise scenario ends with this case of the transfer of German units to the Baltic States.
Collaborator Nils Hinsberger has inserted this article into an AI language model for optimization at his own discretion. All information has been carefully verified.