Last updated: 16.01.2024, 08:09 a.m.
By: Moritz Maier
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There is a lot going on in the party landscape. Germany could once again be heading for a two-party coalition. These are the most important developments.
Berlin – Sahra Wagenknecht and her new party BSW are causing a stir in view of future elections. According to polls, the Left Party and the AfD in particular have to fear losing votes. Based on the latest ZDF political barometer, a three-party coalition like the traffic light as of today would hardly be feasible. In addition, 40 percent of the votes may be enough for an absolute majority in the next Bundestag election. Meanwhile, a rare composition of the Bundestag could emerge if the current mood becomes reality.
Successes for Wagenknecht and Free Voters: Will there soon be nine parties in the Bundestag?
According to the latest ZDF political barometer, the CDU/CSU is clearly in first place with 31 percent of the vote, followed by the AfD with 22 percent. They are followed by the Greens (14 percent) and the SPD (13 percent). The FDP and the Left Party would be kicked out of the Bundestag with four percent each. The newly founded party Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and Hubert Aiwanger's Free Voters (FW) are also on four percent.
This creates a special situation: if a party receives at least five percent of the votes in the Bundestag election, it enters parliament. If the FDP and the Left Party stop their downward trend and the new BSW and the Free Voters succeed in making the five percent jump, nine parties could sit in the Bundestag after next year's federal elections, if the CDU and CSU are counted separately. Only in the first German Bundestag from 1949 to 1953 were more parties represented in parliament. To do this, however, the four parties would still have to make gains, according to the current status of the Politbarometer they would be out – which leads to further, special scenarios.
Will 40 percent be enough for an absolute majority in the next federal election?
If Germans vote in 2025 in a similar way to the poll predicted, just over 40 percent of the vote could be enough for an absolute majority. The CDU/CSU would enter parliament, as would the AfD, the Greens and the SPD. Since these parties together account for 80 percent of the absolute votes, half of them are enough for a majority in parliament.
This would leave only four parliamentary groups in the Bundestag, two fewer than at the beginning of the current legislative period. The last time this happened was from 2013 to 2017, when the FDP was kicked out of parliament and a grand coalition was launched under Angela Merkel.
The two-party coalition could come back
However, despite the current poll results, there would be no new grand coalition of the two strongest parties. The CDU/CSU, as the party with the strongest in the polls, rules out cooperation with the second-placed AfD.
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Nevertheless, the current model of the three-party coalition could then be consigned to history. If only four parliamentary groups actually sit in the next Bundestag, the CDU/CSU can already form a majority in parliament with the Greens or SPD in a two-party coalition.
For Wagenknecht and her BSW, things could go high
The new BSW with its frontwoman Wagenknecht can expect a lot from upcoming elections. In addition to the fixed four percent in the survey, another 17 percent of respondents say they are "likely" to vote for the party. The BSW potential is highest among former voters of the Left Party and the AfD. 47 percent of those surveyed, on the other hand, say that they do not want to make their cross at Wagenknecht under any circumstances. The first solid evidence of the popularity of Wagenknecht's party is likely to be provided by the European elections in June, as well as the state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg in autumn 2024.