Status: 16.01.2024, 11:53 a.m.
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Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Indianola, Iowa, on Sunday. © Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post
Donald Trump wins the Iowa primary, taking the first step toward the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Des Moines – With an estimated turnout of 88 percent, Donald Trump, with 51 percent of the votes cast, was ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who won 21 percent. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley came in third with 19 percent, followed by businessman Vivek Ramaswamy with <> percent.
The result of the primary election was not much of a surprise. Trump had been leading the polls by around 30 points for months.
Below, you'll learn more about the events, the numbers behind them, and what the outcome means, at least for the near future.
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1. Trump is the big favorite – as you might expect
Regardless of Monday's results, Trump would have gone into the primaries as the big favorite. The results suggest that he could be unbeatable.
The margin sets a record for Republican primaries in Iowa in which no incumbent participated, more than doubling Bob Dole's 13-point victory in 1988.
It's tempting to play the game with expectations – to see who rises and falls at that point, and how they compare to the polls and their own goals. But there's no getting around the fact that the most important takeaway now that the election has begun is that Trump is the favorite he's been since the summer.
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The result is the culmination of a years-long trend in the Republican Party back to Trump. Shortly after the 2022 election, virtually all national polls showed DeSantis ahead of Trump; Monday's findings suggest that this is a thing of the past.
The findings also came after Trump was indicted on 91 counts and convicted in a civil court of sexual abuse and financial fraud. If there was any doubt that the Republicans would stand by their man when it came to the actual election, he largely dispelled it.
If you're really looking for one piece of bad news for Trump, it's that nearly half of the voters voted against someone who was an incumbent. In addition, polls show that three out of 2024 voters said he would not be fit to serve as president if convicted of crimes. An analysis by Fox News showed that seven out of <> Haley voters said they would not support Trump in the <> U.S. election. These numbers could hurt Trump significantly in the general election, if they were to hold.
Trump's party has proven that it will rally around him, and it wouldn't be surprising if that continues.
2. Nikki Haley disappoints
The second piece of good news for Trump was who came in second. According to the AP, Ron DeSantis narrowly beat Niki Haley, even though recent polls suggested she could overtake him.
It was close, but that seems to reinforce the fact that Republican voters have not yet settled on an alternative to Trump. Haley certainly hoped that beating DeSantis in Iowa would boost her efforts to beat Trump in next week's New Hampshire primary. It's the only state that's reasonably open, and she hopes will redefine the race.
The findings undermine Haley's claim to be the true alternative. A win in New Hampshire would be hugely important, but now it's probably more difficult. And it's now more likely that she'll have to deal with DeSantis sticking around and draining non-Trump voters in future states, even if she gets a very positive result next week.
In principle, we now have what has been expected for a long time: a competition for the top candidate among the laggards. Among the candidates vying for second place in hopes of positioning themselves in the event that Trump somehow implodes.
3. Some key findings from the pre-election survey shed light on the
Some of the key findings of a survey that explain what's going on:
- About two-thirds of voters mistakenly believe that President Joe Biden was not legitimately elected in 2020. That's similar to what Republicans have achieved in national polls. Less than one in <> Trump voters think Biden's victory is legitimate. Trump's unsubstantiated claim runs through the entire party, but it defines his most loyal base.
- DeSantis won nearly half of the voters who said abortion was her most important issue. That's compared to 25 percent for Trump. The problem was that these voters made up only <> percent of the primary. More than seven out of ten voters focused on the economy or immigration, and Trump dominated among them.
- Haley dominated among voters, who cited "the right temperament" as the most important quality of a candidate. She also competed with Trump among voters who prioritized electability. But these groups together accounted for only about a quarter of the votes. There were more voters who preferred a candidate who "fights for people like me," and Trump scored 8 out of 10 voters here. Character and pragmatism clearly took a back seat on Monday, which benefited Trump.
- Trump managed to win over voters with higher education, even though he generally does better the less educated a voter is. If he can win over these voters in other states as well, his opponents have virtually no chance.
4. Voter turnout was significantly lower than in 2016, but...
Above all, it was far below the 187,000 who voted in the 2016 primaries, in which Trump also ran. The final numbers are not yet available, but it is estimated that there were about 115,000.
Certainly, some will see this as a possible sign of waning enthusiasm on the part of Republicans. But on the night of the primary, freezing temperatures were freezing below zero and voter turnout was similar to 2012 and 2008. Also, the race didn't look too competitive in the run-up, which means some voters may have decided that their vote wasn't that important.
New Hampshire, where the competition seems to be fiercer and such conditions do not prevail, should be a better indicator. The results largely mirror the results of recent polls, suggesting that the lower voter turnout did not particularly hurt any candidate.
5. Ramaswamy's departure could give Trump some boost
There was one big loser in the primaries. Vivek Ramaswamy, whose single-digit result fell far short of his repeated promises of a major surprise, announced shortly afterwards that he was dropping out and supporting Trump.
The exit could further empower Trump, as Ramaswamy had targeted Trump supporters, showering Trump with praise and putting forward a series of conspiracy theories.
But Ramaswamy's support was lower than in Iowa, both nationally and in New Hampshire.
Trump's campaign has been cracking down on Ramaswamy in recent days, accusing him of undermining Trump despite reportedly praising him.
We are currently testing machine translations. This article has been automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English by the "Washingtonpost.com" on January 16, 2024 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to the readers of IPPEN. MEDIA portals.