As of: January 18, 2024, 3:45 p.m
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Members of the state parliament take part in a vote on the budget during a plenary session in the state parliament of Baden-Württemberg.
© Marijan Murat/dpa
While the Greens' values are stabilizing at a low level, the CDU continues to outpace its coalition partner in a survey.
The AfD, on the other hand, has to accept a setback.
Stuttgart - According to a new survey, the CDU is still on the rise in Baden-Württemberg.
If there were a state election next Sunday, the Christian Democrats would get 32 percent, according to a representative survey by the opinion research institute Infratest dimap on behalf of Südwestrundfunk (SWR) on Thursday.
This is the highest value for the Southwest CDU in eight years, and at the same time it is three percentage points more than in the last survey in September.
Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann's Greens remain unchanged at 22 percent and are now ten percentage points behind their smaller coalition partner and the 2021 election results.
The AfD has suffered a slight setback compared to the last survey.
According to the survey, the right-wing populists came to 18 percent, which is two percentage points less than in September.
The SPD also has to accept losses in favor of voters.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party loses three percentage points compared to the last survey and would only reach nine percent.
The FDP would get seven percent, a slight minus of one percentage point.
In the state elections in March 2021, the Greens achieved 32.6 percent, the CDU got 24.1 percent, the SPD got 11, the FDP got 10.5 and the AfD got 9.7 percent.
The next state election is expected to take place in spring 2026.
However, Freiburg political scientist Michael Wehner advises looking at the numbers with caution.
“In addition to identifying with a party, topics and events such as current wars and crises are also important for a voting decision.
But they are changing and the election is only in two years,” said the expert from the state center for political education.
The Green Party's top candidate has not yet been named.
“Things can change quickly,” Wehner told the German Press Agency.
The only thing that is certain is that the AfD has established itself as a political party.
The general secretary of the Southwest CDU, Nina Warken, called the results “a good signal”.
“People want orientation and stability, and they see themselves more and more in the CDU,” said Warken.
But don't over-evaluate the survey; surveys are always snapshots, she said.
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The good results probably have nothing to do directly with the new CDU party leader Manuel Hagel, who took over the state CDU from Interior Minister Thomas Strobl in November.
Hagel, who is also the parliamentary group leader in the state parliament, is only known to a few people among the population.
According to the survey, more than two thirds of those surveyed do not know him or cannot judge him.
14 percent are satisfied with their work and 18 percent are dissatisfied.
Green party leader Andreas Schwarz spoke of a stable result, but there was still room for improvement.
“However, I can’t be really satisfied with the poll for the Greens,” said Schwarz.
But he sees the reason for the results at the federal level.
“There’s a worm in there nationwide right now.
The dissatisfaction with politics is not a Baden-Württemberg problem, but a Germany problem,” said the FGreen parliamentary group leader.
SPD General Secretary Sascha Binder called the results a “serious setback”.
The SPD needs to become clearer and get its messages across better.
From the perspective of FDP parliamentary group leader Hans-Ulrich Rülke, the survey shows that dissatisfaction with the traffic light coalition is also affecting Baden-Württemberg.
“The FDP voters particularly resent our cooperation with the Greens,” said Rülke.
AfD parliamentary group leader Anton Baron sees his course confirmed by the survey.
“The stability of our vote share well above our previous election results shows that our alternative policies on energy, climate or migration are the right ones,” he said.
According to the survey, citizens are significantly unsettled at the beginning of the new year due to many crises.
Only just under a third are confident about the future, while a majority of 60 percent express concern about the situation in the country.
In addition, people's trust in democracy has also fallen.
Only 43 percent of those surveyed are satisfied with the functioning of democracy in Germany, while 56 percent are critical.
The vast majority of those surveyed understand the farmers' protests in recent weeks: According to the survey, 81 percent support the farmers' protests, while 17 percent have no understanding for them.
For the representative survey, 1,152 people in Baden-Württemberg were interviewed between January 11th and 16th.
The survey was carried out using computer-assisted telephone interviews and an internet or online-based procedure.
The margin of error is between two and three percentage points.
dpa