As of: January 19, 2024, 8:26 a.m
By: Sven Hauberg
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North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-un has rejected reunification with South Korea.
© AFP/KCNA
Is there still a chance for a united Korea?
In an interview, an expert names possible steps - including an amnesty for North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-un.
Communist North Korea is toughening its tone towards its democratic neighbor to the south: At the end of last year, dictator Kim Jong-un said in a speech that he considered reunification with South Korea to be impossible.
A little later he declared South Korea “enemy state number one”.
Phrases such as “independence, peaceful reunification and great national unity” must be deleted from the country’s constitution, Kim said.
So is unification of the country, which has been divided since the Korean War, off the table?
In an interview, Korea expert Ramon Pacheco Pardo outlines what a rapprochement between the enemy states could look like.
Mr. Pacheco Pardo, Kim Jong-un has recently rejected reunification with the South several times.
Did that surprise you?
No not really.
Kim Jong-un has been very disappointed with the West for a long time.
In 2019, the summit between Kim and then US President Donald Trump in Hanoi failed, and the South Korean government - in his eyes - also failed to keep the promises it made.
Because of this, Kim has lost trust in the South and the USA.
So does Kim mean it seriously when he now declares South Korea his “number one enemy”?
I believe that the North currently sees no possibility of a reconciliation process with the South or with the USA, as we saw in 2018 and 2019.
That's why Kim actually feels threatened and is now further strengthening his military capabilities.
In fact, it is the case that South Korea is also arming itself, that it is under the nuclear protection umbrella of the USA, and that there are even discussions in South Korea about becoming a nuclear power itself.
To person
Ramon Pacheco Pardo is Professor of International Relations at King's College London.
His most recent book, “Korea.
A New History of North and South” (with Victor Cha).
Both Koreas want reunification on their own terms: The North wants a Korea under Kim family rule, the South wants a democratic Korea.
How can there ever be an understanding?
One possibility would be something like “one country, two systems”, i.e. a reunification in which each half of the country retains its political system.
But that is hardly possible at the moment;
Unless, of course, the Kim regime collapses.
But it doesn't look like that.
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“First there would be a need for a peace declaration between North Korea and South Korea.”
For Kim Jong-un, reunification on the South's terms would not only mean the end of his rule, but possibly his own end as well.
Not necessarily.
We have seen in Vietnam and China that a country can open up economically without its regime changing.
So if both Koreas intensify economic exchange and generally get along better with each other, then one day they could agree on a common political system - and on an amnesty for the North's leadership elite, including the Kim family.
Don't you think many Koreans would demand retribution for the Kim clan's crimes?
That is possible.
But the example of Vietnam also showed how many people, even after a war, are able to say: Yes, what happened was bad, but we must now look forward and move on instead of focusing on revenge and retaliation.
I believe that this would also be possible in Korea, despite the massive human rights violations committed by the Kim family.
When South Korea transformed from dictatorship to democracy in the 1980s, there was no sudden break with the past, but rather a surprising continuity: the country's first democratically elected president was Roh Tae-woo, who had taken part in a military coup a few years earlier of dictator Chun Doo-hwan was involved.
A possible unification would be preceded by reconciliation between the two Koreas.
What could this look like?
First, a declaration of peace between the two countries would be needed.
After all, they are still at war.
Economic exchange would also be a step: that South Korean companies invest in the North again, that tourism is made possible again, that the South helps the North to improve its infrastructure.
And there would need to be regular meetings between the political leaders of the two Koreas.
“It would be extremely expensive to rebuild North Korea”
However, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol does not seem interested in reconciliation with the North.
Yes, I have that impression too.
Of all the presidents since South Korea's democratization, he is the least committed to reunification with the North.
Finally, the South no longer has any illusions about North Korea.
On the other hand, if relations between North Korea and the USA improve, then we would probably see a rapprochement between North and South Korea again.
The fact that relations between the two Koreas are currently making no progress is also due to the USA.
Joe Biden's administration has no interest in spending much political capital on North Korea.
Kim Jong-un recently said: “Relations between South and North Korea are no longer relations between people of the same nation.” In fact, both countries have developed in completely opposite directions in recent decades.
Yes, but if you look at the country's history, you'll see that Korea was a unified empire for around 1,000 years.
In contrast, the decades of separation no longer seem so long.
In addition, there are still people living in both Koreas who grew up in a unified Korea, even though the country was under Japanese colonial rule at the time.
If the moment of reunification came, I think people would be very willing to do it.
German reunification deterred many people in South Korea, primarily because it was viewed as too expensive and led to social problems.
Of course, it would be extremely expensive to rebuild North Korea and bring it up to the level of the South.
On the other hand, a reunified Korea would have to spend significantly less money on the military.
And reunification would also bring many advantages that could outweigh the costs.
Namely?
Compulsory military service could be shortened, which young people in particular should welcome.
In addition, the constant threat from the North would no longer be present for the South.
A unified Korea would also have greater influence on the international stage, simply because it would be a larger country with a larger population.
Yes, reunification would be difficult, and some people, especially in the north, would struggle to cope in a modern Korea.
But Koreans realize that the benefits would outweigh the difficulties.