As of: January 21, 2024, 12:49 p.m
By: Sok Eng Lim, Marie Ries, Moritz Maier
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There is widespread resistance to the AfD - and yet the right-wing party is on the rise.
Where the AfD is currently strongest.
Berlin – Never before have so many people in Germany mobilized so decisively against the AfD.
After the secret meeting in Potsdam became known, at which AfD members also spoke about the expulsion of millions of German citizens with a migrant background, there was huge outrage.
At the same time, according to surveys, the AfD is stronger than ever in Brandenburg, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia.
AfD poll numbers: East Germany is dark blue
When you look at the map of current AfD poll numbers, a west-east divide quickly becomes clear.
Eastern federal states in particular are colored dark blue.
This imbalance is not new, but given the AfD's overall increasing approval ratings, it is taking on new relevance.
The AfD is particularly strong in the three federal states where state elections are taking place this year.
In Brandenburg, according to an election survey by the market and social research institute Insa on January 17th, the party has 28 percent of all votes.
Although the party achieved 23.5 percent in the last election in 2019, another election victory for the party, which is partly right-wing extremist, would make it much more difficult for Brandenburg's democratic parties to form a coalition.
Political expert: AfD has “real chances of gaining power in Saxony and Thuringia”
This development can also be seen in Saxony and Thuringia, where elections will also take place in the fall.
In Thuringia, according to the Insa survey, the AfD is at 31 percent, in Saxony a current Forsa survey even gives the right-wing party 34 percent.
Since the respective prime minister parties in these two countries (Left in Thuringia, CDU in Saxony) are currently doing poorly in the same surveys, an AfD government is no longer unlikely, says political scientist and right-wing extremism expert Hajo Funke.
“The AfD is a right-wing extremist party that wants to know and that has real chances of gaining power in Saxony and Thuringia,” says Funke, professor emeritus at the Free University of Berlin, to our editorial team.
“Power” starts with an election result of 33 percent.
This would mean that the AfD itself would be strong enough as an opposition party to have a blocking minority in parliament and to block important legislative procedures.
Funke therefore says: “A victory for the AfD in Saxony, with 33 to 35 percent, with a weak CDU and weak left is not unlikely.”
Right-wing parties are on the rise across Germany
Although the danger of an anti-democratic government is greatest in Saxony and Thuringia, the AfD is gaining strength throughout Germany.
In every federal state, the party is doing better in the current polls than it did in the last elections.
In Baden-Württemberg, the AfD is doubling its approval rating from 9.7 percent in the last election in 2021 to 18 percent, according to a current survey by Infratest dimap.
A similar number of people want to vote for the AfD in Lower Saxony and Rhineland-Palatinate.
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Bremen and Hesse are statistical exceptions; there are no current survey results here.
In Bremen, the AfD regional association was excluded from the 2023 election, so it is no longer taken into account in some surveys.
There has not been a survey in Hesse since the state elections last fall.
The AfD's election result from last year, at 18.4 percent, clearly shows that the AfD has become stronger here too (2018: 13.1 percent).
What can be done about the AfD's rise?
Like many people at the moment, political expert Funke also speaks out in favor of a “courageous and defensive democracy” in view of these values.
In the fight against the AfD, he names two crucial factors: On the one hand, other parties should fight the AfD with their radical demands: “It makes sense not to demonize the AfD, but to make it clear what dangers it poses,” says Funke.
On the other hand, he believes that a strong and active population that positions itself against the right is essential.
As positive examples, he cites the mayoral election in Nordhausen, Thuringia, and the “Cosmopolitan Thuringia” alliance, in which citizens and companies have come together and thus stand up to the AfD.