The October 7 massacre will be remembered not only as the worst terrorist attack Israel has ever known, but also as a strategic turning point in the Jewish state.
The murderous attack that caught the IDF off guard, along with the emerging threat from the north, will have a great impact on Israel's perception of security and the IDF's power building, which will apparently recalculate the path regarding the term "small and smart army" outlined at the time by Chief of Staff Dan Samaria and his successor Ehud Barak. All of these will also throw a lot at Israeli society in the coming years, which in addition to the enormous sacrifice in the current campaign, will sacrifice more financially in order to build a protective force that will adapt to the surrounding threats.
Despite the need to adapt Israel's security concept to the current era, there are still those who believe that political agreements are the answer to Israel's strategic position in the region.
The main claim is that peace is the means that will ensure military security for the citizens of Israel by removing the threat of war, and economic security by enabling growth that will help build the power of the IDF. It is important to remember that peace agreements do not necessarily guarantee security. History shows that peace agreements have been violated many times. in the past. Security is guaranteed first and foremost thanks to the strength of the state, especially the military. This insight is especially true in the Middle East, a region plagued by violence where peace agreements signed by Israel, the only democracy in the Middle East, are made with the government, which is known to be undemocratic and in many cases does not reflect the The will of the people. The same peace agreements were not signed with the general public, which is inherently very hostile to Israel. Surveys conducted in the Arab world over the last decade, including by the Arab Research Center for Policy Studies based in Qatar, clearly show that traditionally more than 85 percent of the Arab world opposes To recognize Israel and reach peace with it. We all remember the fear in Israel and the US for the peace agreement with Egypt, on the day the Muslim Brotherhood seized power there in 2012.
However, even if we go by the method of those who believe that the pursuit of peace agreements is at the heart of Israel's national security, and that Netanyahu's policy has always been wrong, they choose to ignore Israel's attempts to reach an agreement with the Palestinians, both within the framework of the Kerry outline in 2014 and in the Plan of the Century In 2020. Netanyahu's critics have apparently "forgotten" the journey towards the Abraham Accords, which culminated in 2020 with the signing of the normalization agreements with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.
It is not impossible that if the IDF had been properly prepared for the October 7 attack, Israel would have celebrated the normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia today, which would have symbolized the end of the Israeli-Arab conflict. I wonder what those critics would have claimed then, who have already explained to us Nablus and the Arab Because an Israeli-Palestinian agreement is more important than normalization with the Arab world.
If the IDF had been prepared for the October 7 attack, Israel would have celebrated today the normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia - something that would have symbolized the end of the Israeli-Arab conflict
In conclusion, national security is a field that requires risk management in a rapidly changing environment, especially in a place like the Middle East.
It seems that the containment and deterrence strategy against Hamas was called for in the last decade and a half, especially when Israel had more significant security challenges, centered on the Iranian nuclear program, which indisputably poses an existential threat to the Jewish state.
Alongside the focus on the Iranian danger and preventing the strengthening of Hezbollah within the framework of the BAM, the need to keep the Gaza Strip afloat and prevent a humanitarian crisis there is what guided the heads of the political and security echelons. Ultimately, the operational and intelligence failure of the IDF should be investigated and internalize his lessons in order to properly deal with the threats to Israel in the future.
However, while the 2023 failure originated from a tactical failure, it seems that the strategy of striving for normalization with the Arab world while bypassing the Palestinians, who once again proved that their goal is to destroy the Jewish state, remains in effect.
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