By Mithil Aggarwal —
NBC News
Is Kim Jong Un about to lead North Korea into war?
For decades, this isolated country has stated that its goal is to peacefully reunify with its “compatriots” in South Korea.
But now Kim has formally scrapped that goal, calling his neighbors “the enemy” as he steps up his threats and nuclear tests, and raising concerns that, while the world is focused on wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the dictator might be about to start another conflict.
Although threats and angry rhetoric are nothing new from North Korea, a state led by Kim's grandfather and father before him, two senior American analysts say its latest events go beyond its "typical bluster." ” and suggest that he could be preparing an attack against South Korea, a US ally.
Travelers at the train station in Seoul, South Korea, watch a video of a meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sept. 12, 2023. Associated Press
“We believe that, like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made the strategic decision to go to war,” former State Department official Robert L. Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker wrote this month in a very commented on the American website 38 North.
This analysis, as well as Kim's continued actions, have sparked intense debate about how concerned the world should be.
A reading error
In a historic step, Kim declared last week that communist North Korea would no longer seek reconciliation with the democratic South and that the Constitution would be amended to eliminate the idea of a shared state between the two countries, which have remained technically in conflict since The Korean War ended with an armistice in 1953.
At a meeting of his Parliament on January 15, Kim stated that South Korea was the “main enemy,” and that although North Korea—which possesses nuclear weapons—does
not want war, “we have no intention of avoiding it.”
He also stated that he would abolish all government agencies responsible for promoting cooperation and reunification with the South and that he would demolish the Reunification Arch built outside Pyongyang in 2001 as a symbol of a united Korean peninsula.
Kim threatens to “annihilate” South Korea
The situation on the Korean Peninsula has worsened since the beginning of the year.
On January 1, state media reported that Kim had vowed to “annihilate” South Korea if provoked.
Days later, North Korea fired artillery shells near the disputed maritime border on South Korea's western coast, prompting the South to conduct its own live-fire exercises.
Last week, North Korea declared that it had flight-tested an intermediate-range solid-fuel missile with a hypersonic warhead, in its first ballistic test of the year.
It also carried out another test with nuclear-capable underwater attack drones, in protest of the joint military exercises of the United States, South Korea and Japan.
These tests constitute a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.
Tensions had already risen throughout 2023, when North Korea launched its first spy satellite and its first solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile.
In response to the spy satellite launch on Nov. 21, South Korea suspended part of a 2018 military agreement aimed at easing tensions between the two countries, resuming aerial surveillance near the border.
North Korea then suspended the agreement entirely, restoring border guard posts and other military measures.
A dangerous alliance with China and Russia
North Korea has also maintained close ties with China and strengthened its relationship with Russia, where Kim had a summit last year with President Putin in what was his first trip abroad since before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Last week, during a visit to Moscow by the North Korean foreign minister, Russia stated that North Korea was a "very important partner" and that both countries were developing relations in all areas, including "sensitive" issues.
The United States and its allies have accused North Korea of supplying Russia with missiles and artillery for its war in Ukraine, something both countries deny.
Carlin and Hecker maintain that North Korea gave up diplomacy with the United States in 2019, when Kim and then-President Donald Trump held a failed summit in Vietnam.
Since then, talks over North Korea's nuclear and missile programs have stalled and the country has carried out a record series of weapons tests, developing more advanced and difficult-to-detect missiles that could be capable of reaching the US mainland. of Guam, as well as South Korea and Japan, which host thousands of US troops.
The United States says it is willing to negotiate with North Korea anywhere, at any time and without preconditions.
But he also warns that any North Korean attack against the United States or its allies would receive an “overwhelming” response and would spell the end of the Kim regime.
Assuming that this threat will prevent Kim from acting, Carlin and Hecker said, is a
“fundamental error in reading his vision of history
and a serious lack of imagination” that could lead to “disaster.”
Obstacles to war
North Korea experts generally agree that the situation on the Korean Peninsula is increasingly dangerous and that it has shifted its focus in recent years, leaning more on China and Russia to challenge the United States on the world stage.
“There is a greater willingness to engage in confrontation with South Korea
because there is a sense that it is protected
,” said Scott Snyder, senior fellow in Korea studies and director of the program on US-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. .
At the same time, South Korea's conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol, elected in 2022, has taken a harder line on North Korea than his predecessor.
“The two leaders are closing the dialogue and more willing to show their military power,” says Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
But most experts disagree with Carlin and Hecker that North Korea is on the brink of war, saying its provocations are still primarily aimed at getting other countries to negotiate and that Kim may be timing them with US and South Korean elections this year.
They also noted that Kim may also be trying to shore up his regime in the face of domestic instability, where the economy is not in good shape and there are reports that people are going hungry as he openly spends on weapons programs.
Kim “will continue to drop word bombs to maintain a high level of tension,” says former South Korean Defense Minister Shin Beom-chul.
“But I think he cannot move from words to deeds because his leadership
will be seriously damaged as soon as he launches a serious military provocation
and is stifled by the South Korea-U.S. alliance.”
There is always the risk of an involuntary conflict or a more limited attack, say experts, who point to episodes such as this month's North Korean bombing.
“Things can get out of control quickly,” said Lami Kim, a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Center for Asia-Pacific Security Studies in Honolulu.
“Small-scale bombings or provocations can be very dangerous.”
It would be “suicidal” for Kim to attack South Korea
But when it comes to premeditated war, there are several factors that stand in North Korea's way.
Its conventional weapons are no match for South Korea's, and the North lacks the food and oil reserves it would need to fight such a conflict.
More importantly, North Korea lacks support from China and Russia, which prefer to maintain the status quo, Yang says.
The United States must leverage China's influence over North Korea, he added, "because expanded deterrence between the United States and South Korea alone cannot control and stop North Korean aggression."
In South Korea, Kim's rhetoric has not impressed citizens like Margie Kim, who
says it would be "suicidal" for him to attack the South.
“Kim Jong Un cannot be serious about his idea of going to war against South Korea,” adds Kim, a Seoul resident.
“I've heard it time and time again, and that's why I can't take your threats seriously.”