As of: January 23, 2024, 9:56 a.m
Comments
Press
Split
It is the last hope of many Republicans to prevent Donald Trump from being nominated for the 2024 US election.
But the chances are not good.
Manchester, New Hampshire - Nikki Haley marched through New Hampshire on Monday as the last candidate against Donald Trump.
The former UN ambassador urged voters not to assume he will be the Republican presidential nominee as she sought to slow his momentum on the eve of a crucial US primary.
But the Republicans are increasingly falling behind the former president.
U.S. primary election polls show Haley running double-digit deficits.
The window of opportunity for their best chance of stopping or slowing him is about to end.
Haley is making a final attempt in the New Hampshire primary to distinguish herself as the candidate best positioned to defeat President Joe Biden and deliver victories for the party on the ballot in November.
Haley takes on Trump in New Hampshire
Haley appears to have gotten the race she wanted: a one-on-one race with Trump in the state where she has staked much of her presidential bid.
But Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' exit from the contest and Trump's endorsement on Sunday added another potential hurdle to Haley in a difficult stretch after she previously sought to narrow the gap with her rival.
Read The Washington Post for free for four weeks
Your quality ticket from washingtonpost.com: Get exclusive research and 200+ stories free for four weeks.
“Well, I always speak in hard truths.
I voted for Donald Trump twice.
I was proud to serve America in its government.
But rightly or wrongly, chaos follows,” she said Monday morning during a stop in Franklin.
“You all know I’m right.
Chaos follows him.
And we cannot have a country in turmoil and a world in flames and spend four more years in chaos.
We won’t survive this.”
We cannot have a country in turmoil and a world in flames and spend four more years in chaos.
We won't survive this.
Nikki Haley on Donald Trump's possible second term
The results of Tuesday's New Hampshire primary are expected to be pivotal - not only for Haley's future path in the primary, but also for the overall nomination contest.
Trump has drawn support from former rivals, lawmakers and others, including from Haley's home state, and many Republicans believe the campaign could be over as quickly as it began.
New Hampshire is famous for surprises in primary elections
New Hampshire is known for its sometimes surprising results - including Sen. John McCain's victory over George W. Bush in 2000 and Hillary Clinton's comeback victory over Barack Obama in 2008 - and Haley's supporters hope her growing following in in recent days is a sign that voters are joining her.
My news
At Russia's border: Major NATO maneuver reveals Norway as a weak point
Putin has troops relocated: Russia is withdrawing its units from Belarus
Crews resort to unorthodox tactics against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea
Drug commissioner on the cannabis law: Casual stoners must continue to go to the dealer for the time being
New survey hammer: Wagenknecht party swallows the traffic lights in the east
Improvement for the Challenger 3: New hardkill system is intended to eliminate the danger of drones
Trump, who frequently travels to New Hampshire for court hearings, was scheduled to hold a rally in Laconia on Monday evening.
He has repeatedly criticized Haley over the past week, attacking her as a "globalist" who would be soft on the border and jeopardize Social Security.
Haley is the anti-Trump candidate in the US primaries
While Haley has sometimes tiptoed around her criticism of Trump, she has effectively become the anti-Trump candidate and has the support of groups like Americans for Prosperity Action, which are pushing for the party to turn away from the former president.
"It's pretty much, 'I'm not Donald Trump,'" New Hampshire GOP Chairman Chris Ager said, describing Haley's final message.
Ager is neutral in this race.
Haley on the campaign trail in New Hampshire
In recent days, Haley has held back-to-back events and stepped up her attacks on Trump after facing criticism for not taking a tougher stance on him.
She has fielded more questions from reporters than she has in months as she delivers her final speech in New Hampshire, a state where personal approach and authenticity have proven key to victory.
On Sunday, Haley drew the largest crowd ever in the Granite State: more than 1,200 participants at an energetic rally in Exeter.
On Monday, she met with small groups of voters during her retail visits before ending the day with a rally before several hundred people in Salem.
Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College, said he has seen a change in Haley's approach.
“I think in the last 72 hours she has really turned her campaign into a challenge campaign.
Very energetic, lots of appointments, lots of questions,” Levesque said.
“We’ll see if it’s too late.”
New Hampshire primary poll shows Trump ahead of Haley
Haley faces an uphill battle.
A New Hampshire primary poll from the Washington Post and Monmouth University found that 52 percent of potential Republican primary voters support Trump, compared to 34 percent for Haley.
That poll found Haley's support nearly doubled from November, while Trump's support also increased.
Nikki Haley meets New Hampshire voters at a restaurant in Concord on Monday.
She is pinning many of her hopes on Tuesday's primary election.
© Melina Mara/The Washington Post
Even though Haley has repeatedly indicated she is seeking a two-candidate race, some Republican strategists said DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy's decisions to leave the race likely only helped Trump.
And as the latest candidate to oppose Trump, Haley faces the same challenge as DeSantis and others: How to attack him without alienating Republican primary voters who support him or have done so in the past.
Haley intensifies attacks on Trump after Iowa primaries
Haley has escalated her attacks on Trump since her third-place finish in Iowa.
She questioned his mental fitness after he appeared to confuse her and Nancy Pelosi in a speech at a rally, and criticized him for his excessive friendship with dictators while she served in his administration as a United Nations ambassador.
She has also tried to link Trump and Biden while portraying herself as the only candidate who can defeat both.
But Trump's attacks have put them on the defensive.
Even in her more intimate appearances, where she only speaks for a few minutes, she often spends some of the time verifying his claims about her.
Haley's supporters reject Donald Trump as a candidate
In interviews, many voters at Haley's events said they support her primarily because she is not Trump.
One of them is Brad Marshall, who left the stage with a big smile after shaking Haley's hand, chatting briefly with her and taking a photo with her as she performed at the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Franklin.
“I plan on voting for Nikki,” said Marshall, 80, an independent voter.
Why?
He didn't give a single reason why he likes Haley.
“Donald Trump did a good job when he was still there.
But he has accumulated so much garbage around him and distractions, and Democrats have spent years pursuing him.”
A wild card in Tuesday's Republican primary is the question of how many independent voters turn out to vote.
These voters, who have chosen neither major party, make up the largest share of the state's electorate.
Haley needs historic win against Trump in New Hampshire
New Hampshire Secretary of State David M. Scanlan has predicted a record GOP primary turnout of 322,000 voters.
To make the race truly competitive, Haley would need to have a historically high percentage of unregistered voters participating in the primary, and she would also need a significant lead over Trump among those voters.
In the Post-Monmouth poll released Monday, Haley led Trump by 10 percentage points among those voters - 48 percent to 38 percent - and they made up 47 percent of the likely electorate.
If that percentage increased to 55 percent of the electorate, 10 points above the 2012 peak, Trump would still be leading by double digits.
Nikki Haley holds 16-month-old Arthur during a lunchtime campaign stop at T-Bones bar in Concord, NH, on Monday.
© Melina Mara/The Washington Post
Public polls have shown Haley's support among undeclared voters in New Hampshire inconsistent.
While the Post-Monmouth poll gave her a 10-point lead, the most recent tracking poll from Suffolk University, Boston Globe and NBC 10 put her lead among those voters at 23 points and showed those voters increasing their support for her.
Impeachments against Trump could harm the ex-president
While some Trump critics wanted Haley to more directly attack the former president over his behavior, accusations and other matters, much of her pitch to voters focused on the claim that he would be weak in the 2024 US election.
“When you hear Trump talk, what is he talking about?
About past grievances.
He talks about vendetta... Biden talks about investigations,” she said here.
“Neither of them talk about the future.”
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who has actively campaigned with Haley across the state, emphasized that nominating Haley as the party's nominee would not only ensure that Republicans win the White House, but also would lead to victories on the lower electoral lists.
“We haven’t won very often lately with Trump as the standard bearer.
I want winners.
I've had enough of losers," he said when the candidate was introduced in Franklin.
Haley wants to continue - regardless of the outcome of the New Hampshire primary
Haley has indicated she will persevere in New Hampshire regardless of the outcome.
But getting there could prove difficult, with South Carolina - Haley's home state where Trump remains popular - set to be one of the next big contests in February.
At a restaurant in Manchester on Monday afternoon, a man shaking Haley's hand urged her to stay in the race.
“Don’t worry,” she replied.
“We’re going on to South Carolina.
Trump has drawn large crowds to his rallies in recent days, reflecting his appeal across the state.
“Trump really got everything moving and I'm so happy that he's back in office and things are getting back to normal,” said Caroline Gagan, 60, of Hampton Beach, an independent Trump supporter.
“I’m brand new to volunteer work.
I’ve never been politically active, but I’m just done with what’s happening here.”
Haley is planning further campaign appearances in the USA
Some Republican officials in New Hampshire noted that Haley's schedule was relatively manageable immediately after the Iowa caucuses and viewed her decision to skip a debate with DeSantis as a missed opportunity.
Haley's campaign said she returned to South Carolina one of the days after her father was hospitalized - and in the days after that, she increased her schedule.
“If you want to overtake President Trump, you want as much airtime as possible, and people thought it was unusual for someone trying to catch up to turn down the best television opportunity you can have in this state,” Ager said.
“When you're behind, you don't play it safe and run through the middle, you throw a Hail Mary.
I don’t think we’ve seen enough of a Hail Mary from her in a normal year to catch up.”
Donna and Tom Waldron stood in the morning cold, bundled up and eager to hear Haley make her final argument for why New Hampshire voters should support her in Tuesday's primary.
For her, the reason was simple: She is not Trump.
“It's more of a vote against Trump than anything else,” said Tom, 68, an independent voter.
Donna, 67, nodded in agreement.
When asked why he was voting against Trump, he laughed: "Do you have enough time for this list?"
However, both expressed concern about the size of the Veterans of Foreign Wars post in which she spoke.
Donna paused: “I can’t say I’m really optimistic.
But I don't have to give up hope that people will give Haley a chance.
“I hope that there is a bigger anti-Trump movement than people think - and that they will come out,” she added.
Dan Balz in New Hampshire and Emily Guskin contributed to this report.
To the authors
Marianne LeVine
is a national political reporter for The Washington Post.
Dylan Wells
is a campaign reporter at The Washington Post.
She previously covered Congress and campaigns at USA Today, National Journal Hotline and CNN.
Sabrina Rodriguez
is a national politics reporter at The Washington Post.
She reports on the changing demographics in battleground states and the ways candidates, campaigns and interest groups are trying to mobilize large and small groups of voters.
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on January 23, 2024 at the “Washingtonpost.com” - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.