As of: January 23, 2024, 7:36 p.m
By: Max Müller
Comments
Press
Split
There are increasing indications that the threat from Russia to NATO is increasing.
One scenario in particular worries military expert Christian Mölling.
NATO plans to train with around 90,000 soldiers for almost four months starting in February.
It is the largest exercise since the end of the Cold War.
The background to Operation “Steadfast Defender” is the threat from Russia, emphasized the commander in chief of NATO troops in Europe, US General Christopher Cavoli.
The alerting and deployment of national and multinational land forces should be trained by May.
All 31 alliance countries and candidate country Sweden are taking part in the military exercise.
For Christian Mölling, research director at the German Council on Foreign Relations, the announcement underlines how real the threat of a Russian attack is.
“What, if not that, shows how serious the situation is - otherwise they would have left it at a symbolic 15,000 soldiers.” The meaning and purpose of military exercises is always twofold: “It's about the effect on the outside, you want to show Russia how you take the situation seriously.
And of course NATO itself wants to know what it can currently do and what it can’t do,” says the military expert.
“The risk of war for NATO increases if the war in Ukraine comes to a standstill”
The threat from Russia also concerns Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD).
“We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day – most recently against our friends in the Baltics,” the SPD politician told the
Tagesspiegel on Friday.
“So we have to take into account that one day Vladimir Putin will even attack a NATO country.” He currently doesn’t think a Russian attack is likely, but the in-house experts would expect a period of five to eight years in which that would be possible could.
Kharkiv after a Russian missile attack: The security of NATO states is closely linked to the course of the war in Ukraine, says defense expert Christian Mölling.
© Andrii Marienko/dpa
In the same interview, Pistorius rejected calls for more German military aid to Ukraine.
“We cannot go 'all in' as some are demanding.
Otherwise we would be defenseless ourselves,” said the minister.
Defense expert Mölling says that the threat from Russia is largely linked to the war in Ukraine.
“The risk of war for NATO increases from the moment the war in Ukraine comes to a standstill.
Then Russia could use the industrial and human resources used for this purpose elsewhere.”
Military aid for Ukraine: It depends on the USA
It is clear to Mölling that Russia would not stop waging war after a victory in Ukraine.
“President Putin has stated several times that he is not only interested in Ukraine.
He wants to regain influence in Europe and return to his old greatness.” Russia cannot currently withdraw from Ukraine, otherwise Putin would be finished domestically.
It is by no means a given that Russia will win the war.
“This mainly depends on how many resources you are willing to use,” says Mölling.
However, the outcome of the war in Ukraine will not primarily be decided there.
“The crucial question is: Will the US aid package get through Congress?” said Mölling.
Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress are still haggling over a deal to continue military aid.
A conflict that is also indirectly related to Germany.
“We can provide the finances, but the USA is crucial for the device,” says Mölling.
Military expert: “Western hesitation makes a Russian victory more likely”
But that's exactly where things get stuck.
“We are currently procuring on a large scale and at high speed,” emphasized Pistorius on Monday on
ZDF
.
The pace of procurement has been “significantly increased”.
Nevertheless, “we have to admit to ourselves: We can order faster, but the industry has to produce faster.” This applies to relevant areas such as ammunition, armored vehicles and much more.
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This is exactly what is needed in Ukraine now, says military expert Mölling.
“If ammunition is missing there now, Ukraine will lose areas it has already recaptured to Russia.
The hesitant attitude of the West makes a Russian victory more likely.” How much money and time is needed to modernize the Bundeswehr can hardly be reliably quantified, says Mölling.
“It doesn’t really matter whether you throw out the number 600 billion or one trillion.
Nobody currently knows.”
In any case, relying on the USA is not a good idea, says Mölling.
It is more or less irrelevant whether the future US President is called Biden or Trump.
“In both cases, the USA will continue to withdraw – and then Europe itself will have to deal with its security policy risks,” says Mölling.