Members of the families of the abductees burst into a debate in the Finance Committee of the Knesset, this week.
Your cry also tears the hearts of those who prioritize Mitut Hamas/Flash 90, Oren Ben Hakon
The State of Israel is facing a cruel choice, the likes of which it has never known in all its 76 years.
The public may already be tired of hearing choices, comparisons and measurements regarding the two goals of the operation - the removal of Hamas and the abducted Shabbos, a dilemma that has followed us as a shadow since October 7th.
There is no good and bad here, there are no winners or losers, there is a choice here that may turn out to be a decision between good and bad - and it seems that this time the public is a full partner in the debates that also arise in the closed meetings of the War Cabinet.
The nature of the proposal to outline the release of the abductees is not yet clear, but without looking at the draft, it can be determined that, assuming it exists, it contains two elements without which no deal would be possible: the first is of course the release of the abductees, all or some of them, in a few strokes.
The second element is the cessation of hostilities - complete or limited in time, perhaps also including a certain withdrawal of IDF forces, who at the very least will be required to lay down their weapons.
Here is the plan placed not only at the door of the decision makers, but at the door of every Israeli citizen wherever he is. With the necessary caution, let's assume in advance that a temporary cessation of hostilities in exchange for the release of hostages, on the way that has already brought home more than a hundred hostages, is accepted in one way or another by everyone: from the cabinet, through the government, the IDF and the public - there is no question here at all.
But what will happen if Hamas offers more, but also demands much more?
This is where the horrible and complicated plot gets even more complicated: this morning the results of a survey conducted by
the Israel Democracy Institute
were published , according to which 60% of the Jewish public opposes a hostage deal in exchange for the end of the war and the release of all Palestinian prisoners (in the Arab public, by the way, about 78.5 of the respondents support such a move).
A majority of 60% thinks that it is wrong for Israel to agree to a deal to release all the abductees in exchange for the release of all Palestinian prisoners and the cessation of fighting in Gaza.
Only 25.5% believe that Israel should agree to this.
Netanyahu's dilemma.
In the photo - with the families of the abductees/official website, spokeswoman for the Prime Minister
This is an incredible figure, since the Israeli government went to war to topple Hamas and only as the days and weeks passed did the release of the abductees rise to the top of the agenda.
You don't have to be cynical to assume that one of the reasons for this, beyond the human-moral duty, was the perceived importance of the issue in the eyes of the public.
Has there been a change in public attitudes?
It can be assumed that to some extent yes: the public was tired of the war.
According to the same survey, the majority of the public attests to itself as consuming less and less news - and it is possible that the issue of the abductees is being perceived not only through the emotion it arouses in the hearts, but also as an obstacle to achieving the goals of the war.
Far-fetched as it may sound, we are not far from the day when there will be those who will say what has been said so far only on the margins: "Enough with these snoozes."
This is of course not an endorsement of this position, but it is an acknowledgment that it will be heard by more and more people.
Until yesterday (not as a metaphor. Really until yesterday!), if you will, it seemed that the two goals - the release of the abductees and the war against Hamas, could be combined.
The continuation of military pressure on Hamas, the beginning of which led the organization of the murderers to put on the table an initiative that led to the release of almost half of the abductees, seems to be the only possible way to bring about more strikes.
This was the government's position, but the current proposal - which must be repeatedly reminded of how much we must exercise caution in every detail that comes to light about it (from questioning its very existence to details that could be an exhausting dance of one step forward and two steps back) - which indicates an achievement for Israel's military pressure policy, may also become a trap.
As far as we know, the ceasefire is expected to last about a month (last time it lasted only about nine days).
Meaning - let's assume that all the discussions will end within a week, until the last day of January, then the ceasefire will apply until the month of March.
What are the chances that fighting will resume after that?
It is not clear.
In terms of Israeli readiness and according to public opinion, it must be renewed.
But events have their own dynamics.
The resumption of hostilities after a month, without any more hostages remaining in captivity, could be perceived as an act of aggression by world public opinion and even worse - in the eyes of the American leadership, whose current campaign has only made it clear how critical its support is to Israel's security.
(Enough with Harab's talk about the fact that only we are responsible for our own security, etc.).
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The families of the abductees in the finance committee.
The heart is broken, but there is no good versus bad here or moral versus immoral/Knesset spokeswoman, Danny Shem Tov
Back to October 7th
That is, if we go for such an outline, we have to take into account that what is currently interpreted in our eyes as a methodical break with a tremendous and moving moral value on its side, may turn on us and leave Hamas as sovereign in the Gaza Strip, as if nothing had ever happened.
This is a thought that the majority of the Jewish public in Israel cannot bear.
It will also be more difficult for the politicians, not because their policy failed, but precisely because it succeeded: if the little we know is true, then the military pressure brought Hamas to agree to an outline that was in no way accepted in the past.
What do we do with public opinion?
The cynic will say that it will work itself out: 60% is not such a large majority, the exciting sights of family reunification will have their effect, the aid packages offered to Israel in exchange for not renewing the fighting will be tempting (what's more, the question of the economic cost of the war is beginning to take on frightening proportions).
On top of that, the public will have a unified view of the political system (Ganz and Eisenkot, who think that those who prioritize the promotion of a deal, will not be able to go against the Prime Minister who will agree to it) - and in general after a month of spring and without security threats, which will benefit us, it will be only natural that we want to continue and spend some time Blessed silence, with new releases returning to their natural size.
It is doubtful if, in view of such a reality, they will find someone who will remind us all that this is exactly the mindset that caused the October 7th massacre
.
Perhaps this is a paradox, perhaps a poetic justice, but in a bizarre way, the farther we get on the timeline from October 7th, the more I am drawn to it every time anew, like a kind of black hole: those who require the continuation of the fighting will recall the shock that led us to the desire not only to strike at Hamas, but wipe Gaza off the face of the earth.
Those who oblige a hostage deal - at almost any price - will remind the moral debt owed by the State of Israel, certainly to the citizens among them - people who went to sleep on the eve of Shabbat and a holiday and woke up to a nightmare, only because the State of Israel and its army failed shamefully in their history, in protecting their safety.
There is no right or wrong here, there is no moral or immoral
- the cry of the families of the abductees goes up to heaven, probably in view of the descriptions of the horrors to which we have been exposed in recent days.
At the same time, it is also worth mentioning that it is very possible that a month-long ceasefire will be the end of the war.
The dilemma is terrible, but it seems that the fallout has already fallen due to the element of certainty: the danger that the cease-fire will be a concession to the overthrow of Hamas rule is a matter of speculation, while rescuing the abductees is a clear and immediate need.
No government will survive in the face of giving up on the offer.
How to convince the world that it is time to renew the fire - or alternatively, to convince the Israelis that it will not be renewed, is a perfectly possible task.
More on the same topic:
abducted
Gaza war
Ceasefire