As of: January 25, 2024, 10:44 a.m
By: Felix Busjaeger
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The crash of a plane in Russia is the dramatic incident in the Ukraine war.
The background is unclear, but the Kremlin is taking advantage of this.
Moscow/Kiev – A dramatic incident in the Ukraine war raises questions.
A Russian military transport plane crashed on the border with Ukraine on Wednesday (January 24), according to the Defense Ministry.
All 74 occupants of the Ilyushin Il-76 were killed.
The background is completely unclear.
However, the Russian government claims that Ukraine also shot down Ukrainian prisoners of war with the plane.
Studies will now clarify to what extent this could be true.
What is known so far – an overview.
Plane crashed in Russia: background to the crash is still unclear
The day after the plane crash near Belgorod, the information situation is still confusing: there is no independent information about the plane's passengers or cargo.
The reason for the crash of the plane from Russia is still unclear.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj called for the incident to be clarified with international support in a speech on Wednesday evening.
Kiev did not confirm the version from Moscow that Ukrainian prisoners of war were on board the crashed Russian plane and are now dead.
An Ilyushin IL-76 transport plane lands at the airfield.
A Russian military transport plane carrying more than 70 people reportedly crashed over the Belgorod region on the border with Ukraine on Wednesday.
© Azhar Rahim/EPA/dpa
The Ukrainian military intelligence said: “We currently have no reliable and comprehensive information about who exactly and how many were on board the plane.” The Russian Defense Ministry, however, reported shortly after the crash that there were 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war on board the plane found.
The Ukrainians only confirmed that a prisoner exchange had been planned, but then fell through.
Ukrainian military intelligence also told HUR: “According to the agreement, the Russian side had to ensure the safety of our defenders.
At the same time, the Ukrainian side was not informed about the need to ensure the safety of the airspace in the area […].”
Plane crash in Russia raises questions: prisoners of war or missiles on board?
Experts from the
US Institute for War Studies
(ISW) in Washington said about the plane crash in Russia that neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian information could be independently verified.
The day after the plane crashed, Russian authorities released the names of the killed pilot and five other crew members.
“This is an irreparable loss for everyone.
Our condolences go out to the families and friends of the heroes,” the Orenburg region authorities said on Thursday.
A list of names and dates of birth of the 65 alleged Ukrainian soldiers was also published in Russian state media.
However, there are doubts about this.
It cannot be verified whether there were actually prisoners of war from Ukraine on the plane.
Shortly after the first reports of the accident,
the news portal
Ukrayinska Pravda reported that the Ukrainian military suspected supplies of Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missiles in the plane.
Information about possible reasons for the crash was later removed, according to news agencies.
Russia's plane crashed: when and where the incident occurred - and what the suspected cause is
The plane's crash site may be near the town of Jablonowo, almost 50 kilometers northeast of Belgorod.
As the Tagesschau writes based on information from the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti, the accident probably occurred around 11 a.m. local time (9 a.m. CET).
The plane took off from Tschkalovsky airfield to Belgorod.
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The Ilyushin was shot down by Ukraine with Western anti-aircraft weapons, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
The head of the Defense Committee in the Russian Parliament, Andrei Kartapolov, also made a similar statement in Moscow.
After the crash, he explained that the military aircraft had been brought down from the sky with three anti-aircraft missiles from either the US Patriot system or the German Iris-T system.
The Russian Defense Ministry said that two rocket launches had been detected.
According to the German Press Agency, however, the range of the Iris-T is less than the distance from Ukraine to the crash site.
Experts also doubt that Ukraine has set up the expensive anti-aircraft systems right on the border, where they are easy for Russia to combat.
Plane shot down over Russia in Ukraine war?
Experts suspect Putin's propaganda
“It has not yet been fully clarified what happened; investigators only began examining the remains of the plane yesterday,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday, according to Russian agencies.
Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin was informed by the military, it said.
There should therefore only be a reaction when open questions have been clarified.
For this purpose, the seized flight recorders should also be evaluated, as state media in Moscow reported.
According to ISW, there is a simple reason why Russia is currently publicly demonstratively emphasizing the fate of the people who were allegedly killed: According to the ISW, the Russian leadership would exploit the crash of the plane in order to sow distrust in Ukrainian society towards its own government in Kiev.
In particular, the question of exchanging prisoners of war is seen as a sensitive issue that triggers emotions for Ukrainians and Russians alike, according to a published analysis.
Doubts about Russia's version of the plane crash: legitimate shooting down in the Ukraine war?
The US magazine
Forbes
also reports on the crash of the plane from Russia and presents a different version: According to this, Russia would have had no opportunity to deny the incident because there were several video recordings.
This can also be used to prove a possible rocket impact - and the prisoner exchange variant is untenable.
A video from the crash site doesn't show many bodies.
And a list of prisoners the Russians claimed were on the Il-76 reportedly includes names of Ukrainian prisoners of war that Russia has already exchanged.
The video evidence would likely indicate a real shoot down of a legitimate military target.
Forbes
also believes it is possible that Ukraine could use air defense to reach targets over Belgorod.
A slow transport aircraft carrying equipment for the front may therefore have been an attractive target for the defenders.
However, this version cannot be independently verified either.
“Russian propaganda”: Inconsistencies in explanations about the plane crash from Russia
Military expert Nico Lange also told Tagesspiegel that he suspected it was shot down by anti-aircraft defenses - but sees Russian systems as the
cause
.
“Russian S-300 systems have been repeatedly active in the Russian area in question in recent weeks.
Activities of Patriot, Iris-T or other modern Western systems owned by Ukraine have not been observed there so far,” the expert said.
Lange also sees Russia's explanations about the plane crash as a quick attempt to make as many advantages as possible out of the accident due to inconsistencies in the names of those presumably killed.
“The story that Ukraine shot down its own prisoners of war sounds a lot like Russian propaganda.” (fbu/dpa)