As of: January 25, 2024, 11:11 a.m
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A teacher writes on the blackboard: There could soon be enough teachers in elementary schools.
© Sebastian Gollnow/dpa
Will there soon be a surplus of teachers?
A current calculation suggests this.
Educational researchers see this as an opportunity.
Gütersloh - According to estimates by education experts, the shortage of primary school teachers will be overcome in many places by the next school year.
Because fewer children have recently been born than up to 2021, a forecast by the Bertelsmann Foundation assumes an increasing surplus of teachers in the primary sector in the coming years.
By 2035, there will be around 45,800 more fully trained primary school teachers available than are needed to cover teaching.
Is there a risk of unemployment for educators?
However, a mathematical oversupply of graduates does not necessarily mean unemployment for educators, emphasize the study authors Klaus Klemm and Dirk Zorn.
Rather, politicians are given the scope for quality improvements that is lacking today.
The experts recommend that teachers could be used to expand all-day offerings or to hire more staff at schools in socially difficult situations.
They also suggest that primary school teachers also receive further training for use in the fifth and sixth grades.
With its estimate, the Bertelsmann Foundation deviates significantly from the forecast presented by the Conference of Culture Ministers (KMK) at the end of 2023, which estimated a surplus of only 6,300 graduates in the primary level for 2035.
The background is primarily a turnaround in demographic development, which is not yet reflected in the KMK calculations:
The decline in births in 2022 and 2023 was more than 100,000 more significant than predicted in the federal states' statistical information.
The authors of the Bertelsmann Foundation study will also update the downwardly corrected student numbers accordingly for subsequent years.
However, a shortage of teachers cannot be ruled out in some cases
Fundamentally, forecasts like these are subject to a number of uncertainties.
According to education expert Zorn, expected migration movements are included, but not “exogenous shocks that trigger large refugee movements, such as a new war and catastrophes”.
“One more reason to use additional staff for a resilient school system,” said Zorn.
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In addition, the consideration applies to the whole of Germany, so that more differentiated calculations are required for tailor-made planning according to federal states and regions: “An oversupply in the big city does not rule out the desperate search for primary school teachers in rural areas,” says Zorn.
The situation in other types of schools and certain subjects also remains tense.
There will still be a major shortage of teachers for the foreseeable future, especially in non-gymnasium secondary schools and in MINT subjects.
dpa