As of: January 26, 2024, 5:59 a.m
By: Tadhg Nagel
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Press
Split
Ukraine has recently been unable to change the course of the front line.
Despite great efforts, things don't seem to be progressing.
A report contradicts this.
Kiev – Things don't seem to be going particularly well for the defenders in the Ukraine war recently.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in June 2023 is considered a failure, military aid from Western allies is in constant decline and Vladimir Putin appears more confident than ever before.
It's not all that bad, according to a report from the US think tank Atlantic Coucil - after all, Ukraine still achieved considerable success last year.
The Atlantic Council agrees with the rest of the reporting on the Ukraine war on one thing: there is not much left of the optimism that was the dominant position at the beginning of 2023.
In its place has been a far bleaker outlook, reflecting both the failure of the counteroffensive and growing concerns about delays in military assistance from Ukraine's international partners.
Courage, skill and ingenuity – but no dead end in the Ukraine war?
Still, the think tank said, it is too early to call Ukraine's efforts a dead end.
Although the 1,000-kilometer-long front line of the conflict has barely moved in the past twelve months, events elsewhere suggest that a military breakthrough is still realistic.
According to the Atlantic Council, it was a mistake for the international media to focus on the bloody but largely static battlefields of eastern and southern Ukraine.
According to the report, the most dynamic developments during this period took place at sea.
Can Ukraine be helped by more arms supplies?
© IMAGO/Ukraine Presidency/Ukrainian Pre
The fact that Ukraine managed to force Putin's fleet to withdraw from Crimea and break the Russian naval blockade of the Ukrainian Black Sea ports is remarkable - all the more so since the country does not have its own fleet.
Thanks to the courage, skill and ingenuity of the Ukrainian military, they were still able to be victorious - which could now become a model for a greater victory over Russia.
Weapons deliveries without restrictions - Moscow is relying on the West's indecision
However, it is essential that the Ukrainian military has sufficient Western weapons and knows how to use them.
Even more important, however, is that Ukrainian efforts are not hampered by restrictions on the use of these weapons.
These restrictions, the report said, were based on misguided fears among Western allies about possible escalation.
Since the beginning of the war, Western leaders have withheld key categories of weapons while limiting Ukraine's ability to strike back at Russia out of fear of a possible reaction from Moscow.
There is no question that Putin tried to take advantage of the West's apparent timidity.
At the same time, the Russian head of state took no further steps - despite increasingly bold Ukrainian attacks on targets in Crimea.
Moscow only threatened because it believed in Western indecision.
Therefore, it is time for Ukraine's partners to ignore the Kremlin's saber rattling and abandon the self-imposed red lines.
The Western fear of Russian escalation is Putin's secret weapon - now he must be disarmed.
Volodymyr Zelenskyj wants peace – can this be achieved through more arms deliveries?
The report also highlights that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week that Ukrainian officials had repeatedly heard the same "no escalation" mantra from the country's allies.
Every “don’t escalate” sounded to Ukraine like a “you will win” to Putin.
However, unlike the 2023 World Economic Forum, the Ukrainian leader did not directly ask for weapons for new offensives on the battlefield this year.
While he called for tougher sanctions on Moscow, his main focus was on calling for peace with Russia.
This is what the New York Times
writes
.
My news
Putin's shambles: Russia's army is “cannibalizing refrigerators” to repair tanks
Traffic light revolt at Taurus ring exchange: “If Putin wins, then God have mercy on us” read
The struggle for Taurus is ongoing: How much does a cruise missile actually cost? read
Eyewitnesses come forward after the plane crash – Claudia Major warns of “propaganda effect” read
New defense plan for Germany: Bundeswehr sets the course
Confused Lavrov thesis: USA should supposedly equip Ukraine with “old junk”.
According to Emma Ashford, a columnist at
Foreign Policy
and a senior fellow in the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center, the Ukrainian offensive needs to be talked about again.
One must ask oneself what the best approach is: a long war of attrition or an attempt to find a ceasefire.
Both have their downsides, but you shouldn't fool yourself into thinking that there is another way out.
No matter how many weapons are delivered, the fact that an offensive is more difficult than a defense cannot be changed.
Barry Posen, a professor of political science at MIT, also pointed out in the magazine that military history suggests "that the challenges here are also more formidable than is commonly understood - at least among the Western public."
Russia had months to entrench itself and build fortifications.
It has at least three fortified lines, known as “defenses in depth,” with significant minefields that Ukrainian forces must clear as they advance.
In addition, both sides would increasingly use inadequately trained conscripts.
No matter how you twist it, you have to at least admit that Ukraine is fighting a difficult battle.
(tpn)