When a natural disaster such as a hurricane, flood or tsunami is imminent, a warning just 24 hours in advance can reduce damage by 30%.
Countries with low coverage have eight times higher mortality compared to countries with early warning systems, because people and authorities cannot make informed decisions in advance.
It is a reliable and cost-effective solution when it comes to protecting people's lives and livelihoods from natural disasters.
An early warning system (EWS) combines threat monitoring, forecasting and prediction with disaster risk assessment, communication and preparatory activities.
These allow individuals, communities, governments and companies to take preventive actions.
The planet is suffering from increasingly serious and more frequent disasters, which is why these systems are becoming increasingly relevant.
In fact, the development of local risk reduction strategies has been increasing and the number has doubled since 2015. However, only half of the global population is covered.
Within this framework, the UN promotes the global initiative Early Warnings for All (EW4All), with the goal that everyone is protected by 2028. During the implementation phase of the initiative, attention has focused on 30 more countries vulnerable at a global level, including Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Ecuador, Guatemala, Guyana and Haiti.
Additionally, these systems provide a tenfold return on investment.
According to estimates by the UN Global Commission on Adaptation, an investment of $800 million in EWS in developing countries could avoid annual losses of between $3 billion and $16 billion.
For these systems to be effective, it is essential that they have more and better data from meteorological, climate and hydrological services.
However, a study has shown that simply improving the accuracy of weather forecasts will not translate into better results.
In fact, most of the deadliest and most costly hydrometeorological disasters of this century were predicted in advance.
Opportunities for improvement lay in communication and responsiveness.
Last year, extreme weather and climate events had significant impacts around the world, with significant flooding, tropical cyclones and episodes of extreme heat and drought, resulting in wildfires such as the one in Hawaii that killed at least 99 people. .
2023 has been the warmest year on record and the El Niño episode is likely to further intensify the heat in 2024 causing even more extreme events.
Therefore, we must work so that all countries have Multi-Threat Early Warning Systems.
These systems are not a luxury, but a cost-effective tool that saves lives and reduces economic losses.
Bárbara Tapia Cortés is a meteorologist and Technical Services Coordinator at the Regional Office of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Asunción, Paraguay.
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