The survey was done with
only 150 interviews
, but individuals.
It included
politicians, businessmen, journalists and consultants
, among other influential groups.
What is known as
"establishment"
or
"red circle"
.
And in the
ranking of images
of leaders, there was one that was more than postponed.
Statistically destroyed.
This is
Máximo Kirchner
, who had
a 98% negative rating
.
And 0% positive.
The survey belongs to
Poliarquía
, one of the most prestigious consulting firms in the market,
historically linked to Macrism
.
In the last campaign, for example, he actively measured for the former head of government and presidential candidate Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
The firm has been publishing this interesting study for years.
What does it consist of?
They explain it at the beginning of the report:
What is the objective of the study?
"The study is aimed at knowing
the vision of the local establishment
on the most relevant issues of national events. To this end, Poliarquía Consultores has been conducting a survey of leaders and opinion makers in Argentina since 2008."
Who are the opinion leaders?
"They are those people who, due to their position, knowledge or resources, have the
ability to influence
the attitudes and behaviors of public opinion."
How many opinion leaders participated in the study?
"More than 150 leaders participated in the 2023-2024 edition. Among them, national, provincial and local leaders; legislators; businessmen; journalists and communicators; academics and researchers from public and private universities; consultants and professionals."
The survey was carried out from December 11 (the next day Milei took office) until January 15.
Milei the most supported, Máximo the most rejected
10 politicians plus Pope Francis
were included in the table of evaluated leaders
.
The poles were well marked: Milei was the most supported and Máximo, the most rejected.
The
President
clearly achieves better numbers in the "red circle" than what he is showing in the general public.
While in traditional surveys, he usually combines almost as much positive as negative image, here the balance is well in his favor.
It is
59% positive
(15% "very good" and 44% "good"), 19% average and
18% negative
(9% "bad" and 9% "very bad").
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The look of the red circle 2
Based on a survey of 150 interviews with politicians, businessmen, journalists and consultants
Source:
Clarín
Infographic:
Clarín
In the son of the former president, the rejection is exacerbated: he is 0% positive, 1% fair and 98% negative. In both cases they complete with marginal figures of "does not know/does not answer".
Sorted by positive image and
with more support than rejection
, below Milei are:
2° Victoria Villarruel
: 52% positive, 20% regular, 24% negative and 4% nas/nc.
3rd Patricia Bullrich
:
49% positive
, 23% regular, 26% negative and 2% nas/nc.
4th Pope Francis
:
46% positive
, 29% regular, 24% negative and 1% nas/nc.
5° Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
:
35% positive
, 37% regular, 27% negative and 2% nas/nc.
6° Karina Milei
:
29% positive
, 24% regular, 23% negative and 24% nas/nc.
Disapproved
, that is, with a negative image balance,
in addition to Máximo Kirchner
are:
7th Mauricio Macri
: 29% positive, 24% regular,
46% negative
and 1% nas/nc.
8° Axel Kicillof
: 11% positive, 20% regular,
67% negative
and 2% nas/nc.
9th Sergio Massa
: 8% positive, 18% regular,
73% negative
and 1% nas/nc.
10° Cristina Kirchner
: 1% positive, 10% regular,
87% negative
and 2% no/no.
Inflation and dollar forecasts, and fear of social conflicts
These are the main conclusions of the rest of the topics addressed by the "establishment" respondents:
General situation of the country
"The evaluation of leaders and opinion makers about the country's situation in this measurement remains
among the most critical levels
since the beginning of this study in 2008."
"
94% evaluate the general context negatively
and eight out of ten think that the situation has worsened compared to the last year. The prospects for improvement for the next 12 months grow. They rise from 11% to 45%, the highest value since 2018 ".
"When considering the
Argentine economy
, the negative evaluation of the current context reaches a
new negative record
, rising to 96%."
"
Inflation once again leads the ranking of the main problems
at the national level with 29%, followed by the fiscal deficit (20%). Economic problems accumulate 54% of the mentions together, while institutional problems gather 28%" .
Economic outlook
"Leaders and opinion makers predict on average a
drop in GDP of 0.9% by 2024 and inflation of 237%
."
"Almost two out of three leaders (62%) think that by the end of 2024 there will be a single unified exchange rate. The leaders expect a price of the
official dollar at $ 1,905 by the end of the year
and, if there were not a single exchange rate , from the
parallel dollar to $ 2,307
".
v1.7 0421
The look of the red circle 1
Based on a survey of 150 interviews with politicians, businessmen, journalists and consultants
Source:
Clarín
Infographic:
Clarín
"On the other hand, half of the respondents believe that
Argentina will not be able to achieve a primary fiscal surplus
during 2024."
"
80%
consider that it is a
bad idea to promote dollarization
of the economy."
"Finally,
64% of leaders believe that Argentina will have a cycle of recovery and growth
over the next few years, while 29% believe that it will continue to stagnate or deteriorate further."
Evaluation of the new government
"The
evaluation of the new government
is largely positive. The first impressions of the La Libertad Avanza administration are 54% positive, while the negative views are 19%, and the regular ones are 21%."
"The
president
and
vice president
are the two political leaders with
the best personal image among those evaluated
. The positive image of Javier Milei is 59% and that of Victoria Villaruel is 52%.
Governance perspectives for 2024
"
65%
believe that it is
very or quite likely
that the government will reach
agreements
that allow it
to approve reforms
in Congress."
"For their part, the vast majority (82%) expect episodes of severe social conflict to occur during the course of this year."
"However,
54%
of respondents believe that it is
unlikely or not at all likely
that a
governance crisis
will occur during 2024."