As of: January 26, 2024, 5:17 p.m
By: Amy Walker
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The budget verdict of November 2023 will continue to cause headaches for the traffic light coalition for a long time.
According to the Ministry of Finance, billions will also be missing for the coming year.
Berlin – According to the Federal Ministry of Finance, there is a double-digit billion gap in the budget plans for 2025.
The ministry is “currently assuming a need for action in the lower double-digit billion range,” a spokeswoman told the
Reuters
news agency on Friday (January 26) .
The medium-term financial plan up to 2027, which was decided in 2023, had already resulted in a need for savings of around five billion euros per year.
The spokeswoman explained that further burdens had been added.
The previous financial plan was decided before the far-reaching Federal Constitutional Court ruling of November 2023.
The ruling had deleted 60 billion euros from the climate and transformation fund, thereby opening up further gaps in the federal budget for 2024.
After a long struggle, the governing parties made up of the SPD, Greens and FDP agreed on a new budget for this year in mid-January.
When it comes to the year 2025, there is now another tough battle.
Traffic light dispute over the 2025 budget is already inevitable
The Handelsblatt
first
reported on the missing billions for 2025.
Accordingly, the gap is at least 13 billion euros - but depending on the calculation, it could also be over 20 billion euros.
If that were the case, the gap would be even larger than this year, when a dispute over 17 billion euros dragged on for weeks.
This means that conflict in the government is almost inevitable, again.
There is a risk of violent distribution battles between the ministries again; Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) believes there will have to be an austerity program.
But where could the government find money now?
According to the
Handelsblatt
, the consultations between Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens) and Finance Minister Lindner at the end of last year ensured that around five billion euros more will be available in 2025 than without austerity measures.
But on the other hand, there are actually even more expenses.
The federal government now has to provide aid for the victims of the Ahr Valley flood from its regular budget.
The government wants to negotiate with the Union about whether an exception to the debt brake can be agreed for this specific case.
Budget financing is likely to still be a headache for Christian Lindner (FDP).
© Michael Kappeler/dpa
Then there is the introduction of basic child welfare, which will demand a total of 7.5 billion euros per year from 2025.
The introduction of stock pensions could also be at risk due to a new budget dispute; after all, ten billion euros should be invested in it every year from 2024 in order to stabilize pension levels until the 2030s.
There are also costs for the general renovation of the railway, in which the federal government wants to contribute, and Habeck is currently promoting his power plant strategy, which could also cost billions.
The SPD and the Greens have been calling for the introduction of climate money next year for weeks in order to ensure social compensation for the higher CO₂ price - but that would further reduce the existing capital in the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), at the expense of other energy transition projects .
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The fundamental question is the reform of the debt brake
So no matter where you look: the government doesn't have the money lying around.
If the traffic light wants to stick to all of these projects, then it will have to make savings elsewhere, that should be clear to everyone.
But the austerity measures that the government had decided on for the 2024 budget alone caused an outcry.
Just think of the farmers' protests over the abolition of agricultural diesel subsidies or the early abolition of the environmental bonus for electric vehicles.
The topic is likely to raise the fundamental question of the debt brake again.
The SPD and the Greens are in favor of reforming the rule anchored in the Basic Law in order to make important investments, for example in the energy transition.
The FDP around Finance Minister Lindner strictly rejects any reform.
In addition, such a change to the Basic Law would require a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag - which would only be possible with votes from the CDU and CSU.
And she is probably already rubbing her hands in the face of the new traffic light trouble and smells the next election victory.