The apparent kidnapping deal is expected to provoke deep political controversy.
Israel is required to pay a heavy price for it, and will not return home all the abductees.
The proposed deal includes the release of dozens of abductees - women, adults and the sick.
In return, Israel will be required to release thousands of Palestinian prisoners (according to a key of 100 prisoners per abductee), and will agree to a prolonged ceasefire that will last a total of about a month and a half and a significant increase in the humanitarian aid that will be sent to the Strip.
The Palestinian prisoners who will be released will not include murderers, and Israel will not commit to a cessation of hostilities and a complete withdrawal from the Strip.
Netanyahu, Gallant and Gantz.
Will the deal be approved?, Photo: L.A.M
The proposed deal has two notable advantages: first, it breaks more than two months of deadlock in the negotiations, and outlines an outline for returning abductees home. Second, it does not prevent Israel from returning to the second main goal of the war - the defeat of Hamas, as it did at the end of the previous deal in which 85 were released Israeli abductees.
Minister of Finance Smotritz.
The Nietzsche camp is expected to oppose such a deal, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
The deal also has two notable drawbacks: first, it sets a much higher price for each abductee (in the previous deal the ratio was 3 prisoners for one abductee), and implies that in the future the price will even increase and will require the release of prisoners with blood on their hands in order to return more abductees.
The second, it leaves in the hands of Hamas a large number of hostages, which will be used to advance its goals - primarily the preservation of its rule.
The statements against the reality
Israel's consent in principle to the deal shows the predicament the government has fallen into.
After 116 days of fighting, and contrary to expectations, Israel could not draw up another plan that would allow the return of live abductees to Israel in a reasonable period of time.
The statements that the military pressure promotes the cause of the abductees were not backed up by the results;
In fact, only one abductee (Uri Magidish) was released in a military operation, while a much larger number of abductees were killed by IDF fire or executed by Hamas. The hope that some of the leaders of Hamas would be eliminated by this time was also dashed.
Together with growing public pressure in Israel, the government had to decide.
After the professional elements in the IDF and Shin Bet clarified that they knew how to return to combat even after a relatively long break, it was decided to advance the deal.
Israel is aware that it will allow Hamas a long time to recover and restore damaged infrastructure and fighting frameworks.
It must be admitted that the IDF also needs recovery: some of the units are worn out, the vehicles also require maintenance. A truce will also make it possible to release more reservists, and reduce the heavy burden on the economy.
Shabbat meal in front of the court in The Hague established by the families of the abductees (archive), photo: E.P
The prolonged pause will raise additional dilemmas.
The main one is the question of the return of the residents of the south to their homes.
In the absence of fighting and a threat on the home front, it is unlikely to leave tens of thousands of Israelis in exile for such an extended period of time.
This will oblige the government to act with courage, and tell the residents that rockets may also be launched from Gaza in the future, although at a lower dose than before.
Exceptions will remain the residents of the kibbutzim who live on the border of the Gaza Strip, who are not scheduled to return to their homes until this summer.
During the lull surrounding the previous hostage deal, Hezbollah also stopped shooting in the north.
It is likely that he will behave this way now as well, because he stated that his war is being waged in solidarity with Gaza.
This will make it possible to return most of the residents of the north to their homes, apart from the settlements that border the Lebanese border.
Israel will be able to take advantage of this timeout to try to reach an agreement that will keep Hezbollah away from the fence, and if it fails - to gain legitimacy for an extensive military campaign against the organization in the future.
The deal that is forged will sharpen the political dispute in the government and the public.
On the one hand, the approach according to which the war with Hamas has time, even years, while the time of the abductees is limited and constantly running out, and action must be taken to release them immediately.
In other words: abductees now, Hamas later, for fear that if Hamas is present there will be no abductees left alive later.
According to the second approach, it is necessary to continue to hit Hamas now, until it ends, before the case of the abductees.
The fear is that Hamas will gain time and gain strength, and Israel will lose energy and legitimacy and be left without all the abductees and without the Hamas mituto, and may have to pay even heavier prices in the future.
Netanyahu hinted at his intentions when he gave the Israeli team the green light to move forward with the deal.
It will have the backing of the Zionist camp in his government - led by Gantz, Eisenkot and Aryeh Deri - and the opposition of the Nietzsche camp, led by Ben Gabir and Smotrich.
Netanyahu will be forced to juggle here between the basic commitment of the state to the abductees and the widespread public support for the agreement, and the possibility of defections in the coalition against the background of not exhausting the war moves - especially if follow-on deals are made that will extend the period of non-combat, and against the background of international pressure (which is expected to prevail) to reach agreements on The future of the strip.
Now Israel will be required to clarify its intentions.
Smotrich claimed that there will be a military government in Gaza, and ministers and MKs from the right participated yesterday in a tasteless demonstration of support for the re-establishment of Israeli settlements in Gaza.
Gallant was quick to state that this would not happen, and the US quoted Netanyahu's statements that he pledged that Israel has no intention of controlling the Strip.
Despite its tendency to put political matters ahead of state affairs, Israel will not be able to speak with two voices.
Its desire to promote more deals and renew the fighting requires complex maneuvers, and in the Western and Arab worlds will now require reliable answers to the seriousness of the government's intentions.
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