This is expected to be a significant week in the fighting in Gaza.
Significant for Israel, significant for Hamas.
What happens during it will largely determine the conduct of the weeks, and perhaps even months, that will follow.
The cards are currently in the hands of Hamas.
He must decide whether to give the green light to the promotion of the deal to release hostages in exchange for security prisoners imprisoned in Israel.
At the end of the week it was reported about a dispute between Hamas Gaza, led by Yahya Sinwar, and Hamas outside, led by Ismail Haniyeh.
Gazans want a deal now;
Outside it is conditioned by a complete cessation of fighting.
No one in Israel can guarantee that the abductees will last that long.
Experience shows that the closer the IDF gets to them, the greater the danger to their lives
If these reports are true, there is an encouraging sign in them.
One can learn from them that Sinwar and the leadership around him are tired of fighting and need a break.
In Israel, they will probably argue that this indicates that they are affected by the military pressure, and perhaps also fear for their lives, and hope that the truce will allow them to recover and gather strength to continue.
Those who oppose the deal will say that it should not stop right now: a little more pressure, they will say, and Hamas will collapse.
Sinwar and Haniyeh have not yet responded to Azkah and postponed their planned visit to Cairo, Photo: Reuters, AP
The professional evaluations show otherwise.
Hamas is far from collapsing.
The IDF is indeed pressing him hard in Khan Yunis, but has not yet succeeded in harming the organization's leaders. The IDF has also been operating again in the last few days in the north of the Gaza Strip, but Hamas is discovering the buds of renewed rule there - through police officers stationed on the streets, all of them from among its own people.
And in any case, Rafah and the Philadelphia axis have not yet been dealt with, so at the very least it will take a few more months until the campaign in Gaza is completed.
No one in Israel can guarantee that the abductees will last that long.
The opposite is true: the experience so far shows that the closer the IDF gets to the abductees, the greater the danger to their lives. There is quite a bit of evidence that the Hamas members holding the abductees were instructed to kill them if they sensed danger, and in any case in the poor conditions in which the abductees are held - in terms of medicine, food, Accommodation and sanitation - there is a constant danger to their health, certainly in the harsh winter that afflicts the area.
The maneuver in the Gaza Strip, photo: IDF spokesman
In Israel they have already made a decision to go to the deal.
The question is at what price.
One thing is already clear: for each abductee who is released there will be a day of ceasefire, 35 days initially (and another week to discuss the further process), and a maximum of 143 days, if Hamas releases all the abductees, living and dead, that it holds.
The rest of the matters have not yet been concluded.
As stated, Hamas outside wants a cessation of hostilities.
Israel has made it clear that this will not happen.
what yes
The cessation of activity (including flights), just as the previous outline was conducted in November.
The IDF has already made it clear that they will be able to return to fighting upon completion of the deal, although the truce will have costs in the rehabilitation of Hamas and the redeployment of its people in the field. On the other hand, the truce will also have advantages for Israel in terms of the ability to refresh regular forces, release reservists and handle armored fighting vehicles, and perhaps also return Many of those evacuated to their homes, including in the north (if Hezbollah joins the ceasefire, as it did in the previous round).
Hamas will demand the release of security prisoners as part of the deal.
Since October 7, more than 4,000 new security prisoners have been incarcerated in the prisons. Photo: Tal Cohen
The main challenge will be to bridge the amount and identity of the security prisoners who will be released.
Hamas will want to release as many as possible, including the worst of the terrorists.
Netanyahu has already made it clear that thousands of prisoners will not be released, and there is also opposition to the release of prisoners who participated in the murder of Jews (with blood on their hands).
Even if Israel overcomes this obstacle now, it will face it further down the road when it will be required to release the rest of the abductees, especially the soldiers and members of the standby units.
As prime minister, Netanyahu signed the Shalit deal, under which 1,027 prisoners were released, of which 450 were murderers, including Sinwar himself who felt obligated to release his fellow prisoners who were left behind.
It is doubtful whether he will compromise, and the dilemma the government will face will be difficult and potentially explosive not only in regards to the continuation of the war, but also for the families, the public, and even the future of the coalition.
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