As of: February 20, 2024, 8:19 p.m
By: Andreas Schmid
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Want to move into Germany's parliaments: Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), Hubert Aiwanger (Free Voters) and Hans-Georg Maaßen (Union of Values) [from left to right] © Political Moments/Imago//Jörg Carstensen/pa//Martin Schutt/pa/ /Michael Kappeler/pa (montage)
The established parties are facing competition from new players.
“A relatively large number of voters are dissatisfied,” says political scientist Jürgen Falter.
But only one party can benefit from this.
The German party landscape is getting bigger.
The Sahra Wagenknecht alliance and the Islamic Dava Association have already shown the way, and the Union of Values followed suit on Saturday.
The association, which in its own words represents the “conservative core brand” of the CDU/CSU, finalized its transformation into a party in Bonn.
All three new faces – BSW, Dava and Values Union – want to run in elections this year and in the Bundestag in 2025.
Just like a party whose origins go back to the 1960s, but which now also longs for more responsibility: the Free Voters.
What do these developments mean for the German party landscape?
What could future governments in Germany look like?
We talk about this with one of Germany's best-known political scientists, Prof. Dr.
Jürgen Falter from the University of Mainz.
Mr. Falter, BSW, Dava and Values Union: Why are a comparatively large number of parties currently being founded?
This is primarily because a relatively large number of voters are dissatisfied with the performance of the government and opposition and that, in the eyes of the electorate, there are areas that the established parties do not adequately cover.
Which areas do you mean?
For example, the connection between left-wing social policy and right-wing social policy, as Sahra Wagenknecht probably has in mind.
In the case of the Maaßen party, these are very conservative people who no longer feel represented by the Union, but also don't want the AfD.
Then there are also the Free Voters, who benefit from a general discomfort with normal party politics.
All of this taken together points to a lack of representation among parties in our society.
Professor Jürgen Falter (University of Mainz).
© IMAGO / Hoffmann
Free voters soon in the Bundestag?
“Aiwanger is unlikely to have much success beyond the Weißwurst equator”
The Free Voters are aiming for the Bundestag.
Can this work?
This will certainly cause problems, as the Free Voters have very different positions.
Sometimes they are more left-wing, sometimes they are more liberal, and very often they are conservative.
The range is very, very large.
Does that mean that the Bavarian Free Voters State Association appears differently than the Brandenburg State Association?
Yes, and there are differences even within the national associations.
They are and have always been very strongly anchored in local politics.
Some state associations don't want to get into federal politics at all, and that was true for the people of Baden-Württemberg for a long time.
For example, the Free Voters in Rhineland-Palatinate have a different schedule than the Free Voters in Bavaria.
It contains an explosive device that will make it difficult to even present a uniform political line within the federal government, let alone pursue it.
Bavaria's deputy prime minister and FW party leader Hubert Aiwanger should present this uniform line to the outside world.
Can he be successful beyond the borders of the Free State?
Hubert Aiwanger is unlikely to have much success beyond the Weißwurst equator.
In the north he is rather laughed at because of his very strong Lower Bavarian character, both linguistically and in terms of his overall habitus.
I don't think he can showcase his populist skills the way he can in Bavaria.
Economics Minister of Bavaria and Deputy Head of Government: Hubert Aiwanger.
Can he also lead his Free Voters to national political success?
Falter is skeptical.
© Karl-Josef Hildenbrand/picture alliance
New parties are changing Germany: “That can influence elections”
According to surveys, the Free Voters and other parties could enter parliament.
How can they influence or even shape future elections?
Whether they shape the party landscape remains to be seen.
I trust the BSW, i.e. the Wagenknecht party, to do that most.
This probably has the best chance of getting over the five percent hurdle.
I'm already skeptical about the Free Voters.
I would definitely bet against it with the Maaßen party and we can't yet see it with the new Turkish party Dava.
But they will definitely influence the party system, simply because they have to get their voters from somewhere.
Taken together, that's well over ten percent, maybe 15 percent.
Where do these “new voters” come from?
Partly from the non-voter camp, but partly also from the established parties and very different.
So the Maaßen party is likely to draw the most from the right wing of the Union parties, probably less from the CSU than from the CDU, and votes are also likely to come from the AfD.
Sahra Wagenknecht will pluck both the left and the extreme right and will also be successful among non-voters.
The Dava is likely to achieve its greatest success among non-voters because many of the migrants who could vote for them have not yet taken part in elections.
And in this respect it can certainly influence elections, for example if the CDU were to lose more votes in favor of these new parties than the Greens and SPD.
Or if the Left has to give up so much that it no longer enters the Bundestag, which is what it looks like at the moment.
What does this mean for future coalition formation?
This makes forming coalitions even more difficult.
There are no longer clear majorities for two or three parties.
My prediction is that we will see more minority governments in the future, at least at the state level.
This will probably become apparent in the East this year.
In Thuringia?
Actually in all eastern countries where elections are held.
Most likely in Thuringia and Saxony.
The AfD is so strong that only an all-party coalition could possibly form a government without it, and that is difficult to get together.
Bringing the Left and the CDU together may be even more difficult than keeping the FDP and the Greens together in a coalition.
Interview: Andreas Schmid