* Jérôme Sainte-Marie is president of the PollingVox institute and head of Campus Héméra, the training school of the National Rally.
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Taking place in a cloud of fortuitous events and fleeting controversies, the rise to power of the National Rally lends itself, however, to a reading in terms of successive cycles, logically intertwined with each other.
Such an approach confirms the likelihood of his accession to power in the coming years.
Broadly speaking, the electoral history of the FN, then the RN, can be divided into four periods.
The first, from 1972 to 1983, is, given the marginal scores obtained, “testimony”, or even simple persistence.
From the point of view of the ballot box, things really begin with the European elections of 1984 and the 11% of the votes cast obtained by the Le Pen list.
A long period of “affirmation” begins, second cycle, with the FN asserting an electoral presence of around 15% and even acceding by surprise…
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