For now, this is just a statement, a hypothesis that should not be ruled out.
But she hopes to sound like a warning shot.
Failing to be able to send weapons and ammunition in sufficient numbers, or to offer Ukraine a prospect of membership in NATO, which would offer it the guarantee of protection of Article 5, France would be ready to consider sending ground troops to anchor its solidarity with kyiv against the Russian army.
By displaying this determination at the end of the meeting organized at the Élysée on Monday, Head of State Emmanuel Macron took a new step.
“
Nothing must be excluded to pursue our objective: Russia cannot and must not win this war
,” he declared, assuming “
strategic ambiguity
.”
This ambiguity is supposed to discourage Vladimir Putin.
To discover
Follow information on the war in Ukraine with the Figaro application
Since the start of the conflict two years ago, Westerners have gradually increased their involvement: defensive equipment initially, then artillery, tanks, air defense systems... F16 planes should soon appear in the Ukrainian sky.
Pilot training is being completed and the aircraft are expected to be delivered in the first half of the year.
All the stages which appeared to be thresholds of co-belligerence were successively crossed without allowing kyiv to achieve a victory.
Ukraine is in a more difficult position today.
His counter-offensive failed.
His army is short of ammunition.
It is losing ground, even slightly, on the front.
“
The Ukrainians can hold
,” however, assures a French military source, who does not believe in Russian capabilities to relaunch an offensive.
“
There is a lot of misinformation in what the Russians say
,” we add.
But Western support must be sustained over time.
The threshold of cobelligerence, discussed for two years, is getting closer.
The concept is militarily vague.
Only sending soldiers on the ground makes a real difference.
“There is a need for a start”
For several weeks, Europeans have been worried about a possible extension of the war.
By receiving Volodymyr Zelensky at the Élysée on February 16, the head of state also denounced Russia's increasingly aggressive posture.
“
There is a need for a start
,” he said, hoping for the opening of a “
new phase of strategic and operational reflection
”.
By considering military engagement, the head of state is responding to the Kremlin's escalation.
But Emmanuel Macron admitted that his interlocutors were divided.
“
There is no consensus today to send in an official, assertive manner and endorse ground troops
,” he said.
The formula is also ambiguous.
Whatever the case, Emmanuel Macron seeks to assume military leadership and cause a ripple effect, in line with the concept of a “framework nation”, that is to say a nation capable of supervising a coalition. .
For the moment, he is not following this risk-taking.
Europe does not have the means for war.
The format or nature of any possible deployment is unknown.
Within the general staff, certain officers also discovered the president's announcements at the same time as the public... The head of state mentioned five areas of increased cooperation with Ukraine: "
cyber defense, co-production of arms, military capabilities, munitions in Ukraine, the defense of countries directly threatened by the Russian offensive in Ukraine, in particular Moldova, the capacity to support Ukraine on its border with Belarus with non-military forces military, and mine clearance operations
,” he listed.
“
If these points were fully implemented, we should not exclude the possibility that they would require security measures which would then justify some elements of deployment
,” he specified.
Support close to the front
These deployments, which would therefore not be military elements with an offensive vocation, would be Western personnel.
Maintenance of the F16, for example, will certainly require the presence of American technicians, given the complexity of the devices.
For other equipment, there is also a need for support closer to the front.
The president did not specify what the “
non-military forces
” would be on the Belarusian border.
For all these sensitive missions, protection forces could accompany these deployments.
The commitment imagined by the president is limited and targeted.
These are supports.
In practice, this already exists with the sharing of intelligence.
But claiming it is a symbolic step.
Before the start of the war, the US military had withdrawn its soldiers deployed in Ukraine, who were carrying out training missions.
This withdrawal had been criticized behind the scenes: it allowed Russia to launch its offensive without taking the risk of hitting the United States.
Washington, like most capitals, believed that Ukraine had little chance of resisting the Russian offensive.
President Joe Biden wanted to avoid the risk of a spiral.
For others, the presence of American soldiers on Ukrainian territory would have dissuaded Vladimir Putin from attacking.