After the resounding 48% in the first round of 2019,
Alberto Fernández
achieved a political milestone unthinkable for the time: in the midst of the crack, he added the support of Macrista sympathizers.
It was during the start of the pandemic and the then-endorsed quarantine.
It was a fleeting accompaniment, which later added another less expected release.
As the economy became more complicated and the deaths from Covid piled up, the President of the Frente de Todos began to be questioned by moderate voters who had opted for better management.
This group was called
"the disenchanted
. "
Now, a new survey warns that something similar could be brewing around Javier Milei. Incipient and minor, for now, but dangerous data in the end.
It happens that although Milei has been in power for less than three months, his confrontational style, combined with a deep and rapid adjustment, keeps the economic and political scenario altered.
This newspaper has already warned about the new polarization that has formed around his figure.
It is in this context that we must analyze the study that
Clarín
accessed and which shows leaks in support for the libertarian.
It is from
Opinaia
, one of the consulting firms
that first and best warned about the Milei phenomenon
.
Video
Dominique Kantor called on the president to apologize publicly after liking a discriminatory tweet.
Between February 9 and 16, the pollster - a pioneer in online measurements - conducted a
national survey of 1,200 cases
, with +/- 3% margin of error.
Main conclusions
At the outset, the report outlines its main conclusions.
Says so:
- "An increasingly polarized scenario
is presented
: half of Argentines approve of the management, while the other has a negative or critical view."
- "In terms of attributes,
Milei is seen as an honest president
, with strong leadership, but with a low predisposition to dialogue and little social sensitivity."
- "
Inflation continues to be the country's main problem
, and it is also the main complaint for the current government. Lowering inflation is indicated as the main objective that the Milei administration should have both among its voters and those of the opposition ".
- "The
only leaders with a favorable image balance
belong to the ruling party:
Victoria Villarruel, Javier Milei and Patricia Bullrich
. As in previous measurements, they continue to be the politicians with the best positioning."
- "There
is still no defined opposition leadership
. In a scenario of dispersion, Cristina Kirchner is positioned as the most prominent, although mostly within the electorate of La Libertad Avanza. For the voters of Unión por la Patria, Axel Kicillof continues to be the main Referrer".
The disenchanted are few, but they increase
As explained at the beginning of the note, one of the most interesting points is linked to Milei's support base.
How much does she retain today of that almost 56% that she obtained in the runoff?
The question arises in the midst of an interesting debate about its legitimacy.
Especially in the Interior, where the President faced a tough fight with the governors.
As
Clarín
said , the hard core of support for Milei is the one who voted for him in the PASO and the general election (30%).
But a large part of the 26% that joined for the second round also accompanies him.
They are basically Patricia Bullrich's voters in the first round.
Opinaia
approached the issue with a basic question:
"Would you vote for Javier Milei again?"
.
The basis of the study was all the respondents who voted for it in the runoff.
Of those 56 points, according to the survey, the libertarian today retains 40. Another 11 do not know and 5 assure that they would not elect him again. This last group of "disenchanted" people, although low, doubled compared to previous measurements.
The consultant asked the same question four times since Milei assumed the presidency.
One in December, two in January and this last one in February.
Those who would not vote for the libertarian again evolved like this: 2%, 3%, 2% and 5%
.
Those who would vote for him again were 43%, 43%, 42% and 40%.
And the undecided: 11%, 10%, 12% and 11%.
v1.7 0421
Milei 2 vote retention
Based on a national survey of 1,200 cases
Source:
Opinaia
Infographic:
Clarín
Then, the study advanced on the profile of La Libertad Avanza voters.
With three filters: sex, age and socioeconomic level.
Those most loyal to Milei are men (78% would vote for him again), those over 50 years of age (80%) and those with a high economic level (76%).