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Can Taylor Swift influence the US elections in November?
This question—somewhat strange—has been repeated for weeks in the United States. The reason is simple: the artist is extremely well-known, has millions of fans, appeals to a relevant electorate (young white people), and also, unlike other celebrities who often discreet, the artist could once again publicly support a candidate, Democrat Joe Biden, as she did in 2020.
I've looked for data to investigate this issue, starting with the basics: what do we know about Swift's fans?
We know a lot.
The first thing is to verify that there are many.
6% of Americans declare themselves a “fan” of the singer;
and up to a third of people call themselves at least “somewhat of a fan,” according to YouGov surveys.
In the graph I show the same data for different groups:
If we look at the declared fans—dark purple—we see that there are more of them among young people, upper-middle incomes, and in the northeast of the country, which is Taylor Swift's region of origin.
But it is interesting to see that her fans do not stand out among the white population, and that there are almost as many among men as among women.
Casual followers are even more heterogeneous: one in four 65-year-olds calls themselves “somewhat of a fan.”
The Pennsylvania singer has a varied following.
Also when we get into the ideological field.
Taylor Swift said in 2020 that she would vote for Joe Biden, which obviously puts her closer to the Democrats, but that doesn't stop her from having Republican fans:
10% of Democratic voters say they are a “fan” of Swift, but also 6% of Republicans.
That's a lot of people on both sides of the political spectrum.
And even more: among her fans there would be almost as many Donald Trump voters as Biden voters in 2020.
It is curious to see that the ideological bias is greater among the “somewhat fans.”
What is my hypothesis?
On the one hand, I imagine that many of her true followers have been for years, perhaps before the singer supported Biden, and they have not reneged on that afterwards.
At the same time, there may be some Democrats who dare to declare themselves “somewhat of a fan” because the singer supported her party.
Finally, let's think about the possible influence of Taylor Swift in the November elections.
The first important thing is to remember that the artist is popular: 54% of Americans have a favorable opinion of her.
His figure is better than those of Biden (48%) and Trump (41%), although not as good as those of other celebrities, such as Morgan Freeman (80%), Will Smith (62%) or Michelle Obama (60%). .
Furthermore, the table above reflects a trend.
This winter Swift appears to have lost popularity among Republicans and independents.
Possibly, as his figure becomes politicized with this debate about his support (or not) of a candidate, the sympathies that he arouses have become polarized.
Its value as an electoral asset is maintained in any case.
First, because this process of polarization is not complete (half of those surveyed claim to not know if Taylor Swift is a Republican or a Democrat).
And second, because even if the singer only appealed to the latter, she could still benefit Democratic interests, favoring participation and pushing to vote sympathizers disconnected from the elections, or young people cold with a candidate who will participate in the elections with more than 80 years.
So, will it matter if Taylor Swift asks to vote for Biden?
I dare say yes.
From the previous data, and also from this one: 15% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans directly recognize that if Taylor Swift supports someone, that will make them more likely to vote for that person.
Other stories
📝 1. The price of being surnamed Zhang or Zhu
After earning a PhD in the United States, Chinese economists with last names from the end of the alphabet—Zhang or Zhu—are 20% more likely to return home rather than pursue a career in the U.S. The reason?
An unfair bias: in economics, the authors of a research study sign it in alphabetical order, regardless of merit, but that does not prevent the first signatories from being more visible.
The Zhangs sign last, for no reason, and that penalizes their careers.
This study shared by Marta Suárez-Varela tells it.
🏡 2. We are looking for 40 rentals on Idealista.
They are all more expensive than the new Government reference
The recently launched State Reference System for Housing Rental Prices portrays a parallel world that does not fit with the current rental market.
We have compared 40 Idealista ads for Madrid and Barcelona with the ministry's indicative prices: all are offered more expensive on the portal, up to double.
It is not a surprise that the price index is pointing downwards.
First, due to the nature of the calculation.
But also because one of the potential purposes of the system is precisely to limit the price.
It could be used to impose a maximum price on rents in areas declared stressed.
For now, only Catalonia has taken that step.
📜 3. An AI to decipher papyri
2,000 years ago, a volcanic eruption buried the Villa of the Papyri, making it the only library from antiquity that survives intact.
But opening its secrets presents a double problem: not only do you have to decipher the spelling, you first have to access the content of the papyrus rolls without them disintegrating.
This is where a competition comes into play, the Vesuvius Challenge 2023, which brought together a community of competitors (and collaborators) to try to solve this challenge with artificial vision and machine learning.
And one team has triumphed: “Today we are happy to announce that our crazy project has been successful.
After 2,000 years, we can finally read the scrolls,” says one of the promoters of the prize.
In the image, the final part of the first read scroll, which contains an unpublished text from the ancient world.
The author, they say, is probably the Epicurean philosopher Philodemus, who writes here about music, food and how to enjoy life's pleasures.
In the closing section, he attacks some nameless ideological adversaries, perhaps the Stoics?, who “have nothing to say about pleasure, either in general or in particular.”
Text of a rolled papyrus never seen in 2,000 years and now deciphered thanks to the use of artificial vision technologyVesuvius challenge
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