An American drone strike. And it is the Middle East that threatens to rock. It was still dark this Friday in Baghdad, the Iraqi capital, when the Americans destroyed a convoy of military vehicles. Several individuals have been killed, and the identity of at least one has been confirmed: Ghassem Soleimani, 62, Iranian general and strongman of the Republic of Mullah. Earthquake.
Donald Trump hurts Tehran at the heart, depriving it of one of its essential cogs. At the risk of starting a new war and with unforeseeable consequences? Iran has in any case promised that it would take revenge.
What is Iran doing in Iraq?
The Islamic Republic of Iran is a key player in the Middle East and active throughout the region. It has a special unit, the Al-Quds force, dedicated to external operations, which was rightly led by Ghassem Soleimani. Iraq has been the subject of constant tension and rivalry between Washington and Tehran, particularly since 2003, the year of the invasion of Iraq by American forces.
VIDEO. Death of General Soleimani: "This strike is a declaration of war"
The Iranians - Shiites - then took advantage of the fall of the Saddam Hussein (Sunni) regime to further extend their influence in Iraq, providing support to the Shiite Iraqis, who are in the minority. In recent months, Iran's sustained attacks on American positions have intensified. This is what led in particular to the attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad on Tuesday December 31.
Why did Trump do this?
American Foreign Minister Mike Pompeo said Soleimani was preparing to take "far-reaching action" threatening American lives. "He killed or injured thousands of Americans over a long period of time, and was preparing to kill more ... but he got caught! Trump commented on Twitter. Without further details.
General Qassem Soleimani has killed or badly wounded thousands of Americans over an extended period of time, and was plotting to kill many more ... but got caught! He was directly and indirectly responsible for the death of millions of people, including the recent large number ....
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2020The relationship between the United States and Iran has long been in conflict. It has gotten worse again since Trump decided to tear up in 2017 the agreement that limited the proliferation of Iranian nuclear power, co-developed by his predecessor Barack Obama. The American president, who reinstated economic sanctions that weaken Tehran, has repeatedly said that he wanted to destabilize the regime in place. Eliminating Soleimani can be seen as another act of this destabilization campaign.
Another complementary key to interpretation is 100% American. Donald Trump is this year campaigning for his re-election, and it is a safe bet that he will use the patriotic fiber, brandishing the victory against the Iranian sworn enemy, to strengthen the support of his electoral base. Trump's November 2011 tweet surfaced after the Iraqi strike: "To be re-elected, Barack Obama will start a war with Iran," predicted the billionaire.
Now what will Iran do?
In Iran, all TV channels looped on the death of Soleimani on Friday, a black banner inlaid at the top left of the screen. Three days of national mourning have been declared. "It's shit. Winter is coming ( Editor's note: winter is coming, in reference to the Game of Thrones series) ”, sends us by message, Amin (the names have been changed), engineer based in Tehran, worried. "People are afraid it will be chaos for Iran ... it is a catastrophic event. But I don't think we are going to war, ”says Mahmoud *, a young Iranian in military service.
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Now, Tehran's response is expected. His highest authority, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has promised the Americans "severe revenge". "Iran will want to avoid a head-on war with the United States, which it could not win anyway. But there will necessarily be an answer. They announced it, and it's a question of credibility, ”says Thierry Coville, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), a specialist in Iran.
According to him, blocking the Strait of Hormuz, in the south of Iran, through which a large part of the world's oil transits, is one of the possibilities.
VIDEO. General Soleimani dies: thousands of Iranians demonstrate in Tehran
"We can expect confrontations between US forces and Iranian-backed militias, as in Iraq," said Kaleigh Thomas, a Middle East security researcher at the think-tank Center for a New American Security. . They could also target Saudi oil infrastructures, Emirates. The regime is also likely to announce further violations of the nuclear deal. Nothing that would make it possible to envisage a calming of the situation, on the contrary.
Can France play a role?
Friday, Emmanuel Macron met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the two heads of state worried about the risk of "escalation" in the region. The French president then telephoned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Already this summer, Macron had tried to mediate between Washington and Tehran, trying to organize a surprise mediation at the Biarritz summit, hoping to help ease the diplomatic confrontation between the two powers. The Elysee Palace remains lucid, however: “In Iran, the race against the clock has been under way for a long time. But we are entering the heart of the American countryside, things have changed a lot since Biarritz. "
"The world cannot afford another war in the Gulf"
The announcement of the Iranian general's death did not fail to make the international community react. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said "the world cannot afford another war in the Gulf".
Germany also expressed "great concern", like Vladimir Putin's Russia, when a Chinese spokesperson asked "all concerned, especially the United States, to remain calm and exercise restraint to avoid a further escalation of tensions. ”
Iran's allies have denounced American action. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad assured that Soleimani would not be "forgotten" when the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah promised "fair punishment" to the Americans.
For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an ally of the Americans, considered that the United States had the "right" to "defend itself".
