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A year and a half after Trump terminated the nuclear deal and began his strategy of maximum pressure against Iran, the U.S. is on the brink of an armed conflict with the regime in Tehran.
With Qasem Soleimani, the US military, on the orders of President Donald Trump, killed the second most powerful man in the Islamic Republic, a key military and political figure in the regime. This is a completely new quality in the current conflict between Washington and Tehran - and far beyond. There has been nothing like it in four decades of hostility between Iran and the United States.
An escalation has become inevitable. It is impossible that Iran will not react with retaliatory strikes, which in turn would result in American counter-strikes. This is how wars begin.
Trump's decision is a significant victory for hardliners in the United States
If there were still hopes of easing the conflict between Washington and Tehran by Thursday, these are now a thing of the past. Discussions of the kind that France's President Emmanuel Macron last tried to convey in September have become unthinkable. Trump's decision is therefore a significant victory for the hardliners in the US, who are facing confrontation with Iran.
The killing of Soleimani is the tentative culmination of a development that began with the U.S.’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May 2018. Trump replaced Europeans' negotiating strategy with "maximum pressure", which Iran replied last summer with "maximum resistance": provocations such as attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf, oil plants in Saudi Arabia and US targets in Iraq. Although Iran did not officially acknowledge most of the attacks, it showed the vulnerability of the Americans and their allies in the region.
Trump, whose stated goal is to withdraw US troops from the region, initially reacted with caution - in order to escalate the conflict with maximum provocation.
Because the importance of Soleimani in the power structure of Iran can hardly be overestimated. He was much more than the commander of an elite force. The Revolutionary Guards, whose Al-Quds unit he led, have long been a state within the state, and their power extends far into the country's politics and economy. Many see them as the real rulers of the Islamic Republic.
Soleimani's killing will close the ranks of the regime even more tightly
Soleimani shaped not only the Iranian foreign and defense strategy, the actions in the region from Lebanon to Syria and Yemen to Iraq. He was also a key political player and was acted as a possible successor to President Hassan Rohani. What is certain is that he would have had a decisive influence in the succession of the aged Ayatollah Ali Khameinei. And he was a popular symbol of Shiite resistance to American dominance in the Middle East far beyond Iran.
His assassination will tighten the ranks in Iran and mobilize support for the regime, which has recently faced mass protests across the country against mismanagement and corruption.
And Iran, the religious leader Ali Khamenei has announced, will retaliate. Thanks to its numerous allied militias in the region, there are plenty of opportunities. If the Iranians target US targets, it is very likely that American soldiers will soon die too. That in turn could not and would not leave Trump unanswered.
A proxy war threatens in Iraq
Iraq threatens to become the most important scene of this conflict. While Trump recently strengthened the troops there, Iran will do everything it can to force the Americans to withdraw from the neighboring country. Almost 17 years after the US invasion, Iraq has been torn apart by internal struggles.
Demonstrations in recent months that have been directed against corruption and mismanagement, but also against Iranian influence in the neighboring country, have been brutally suppressed. There were hundreds dead. Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi and President Barham Salih have resigned. Now the already unstable country threatens to become the scene of a proxy war.
The killing of Soleimani is a major blow to the Iranian leadership, now facing the question of how quickly retaliation will come and how violent it should be. An extraordinary session of the National Security Council was already scheduled for Friday. What is certain is that the general, revered by many regime loyal Iranians, will still serve those in power after his death: glorified as a martyr, whose legacy must now be preserved.
