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Possible scenarios after operation that killed Soleimani 1:33
(CNN) - The US drone attack on Qasem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), may have been an “objective of opportunity, ”but he clearly had presidential authorization for longer than last night. The United States wants to send the signal that this is deliberate. But he is a climber and takes the region back to the edge of chaos.
So how could the US authorities possibly calculate that this was a good idea?
- Who was Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian commander killed in a US attack. with a drone?
- Minute by minute: the latest on the US attack against Qasem Soleimani
Well, Iran has been attacking the United States and its allies through representatives for months. They are accused of hitting Saudi oil fields. An American drone before this. Tankers in the Persian Gulf. And this week they directed attacks against the US embassy in Baghdad, says the United States.
Officials could argue that the United States is already being attacked by pro-Iranian forces, so the US logic could be that any response from Iran will be a worsening of the same asymmetric strikes that are already being inflicted.
It is true that Iran does not have the military power to face the United States in a conventional open war. US officials can argue that they should send a strong signal that this White House was not shy and would combat violence with violence, regardless of any refusal by Tehran.
They may have decided that the strength of this US resolution signal. UU. - and the removal of Soleimani's hard line from the equation - it would be worth the risk of the coming weeks of chaos and reprisals.
- Russian Foreign Ministry: The death of Soleimani in US attack will bring "serious consequences"
But, as with all strategies, there is a flaw. The Iranians have a plan. They had one for Iraq, where they continue to have influence despite the protests, while the United States really doesn't. They have one for Syria, from which the United States continues to want to withdraw. They have representatives in Yemen, Lebanon and Syria, all capable of extracting a price from US allies. They can also extract a price from Israel, where Hezbollah from Lebanon has rockets aimed at this key US ally, and a direct line to Iran. Iran is strategic and patient.
Iran also faces a White House where key personnel change annually. There is little Iranian experience around President Donald Trump at this time: key officials are often chosen simply because of their hard line stance.
Brian Hook, Trump's key man in Iran, has limited experience in this.
There is great experience in the State Department and other agencies, but their morals are surely not at their peak after recent cuts and turmoil.
Therefore, we have an emphatic signal that changes the game of the United States, made with the belief that the consequences will be unknown, but probably manageable. A certainty will be that Tehran will seek to demand a price in such a way that this belief is broken.
Qasem Soleimani
