Iran threatens terrorist attacks and rocket launching revenge on Suleiman elimination, but significant action could come from the Persian Gulf • Revolutionary Guards are able to hit American aircraft carriers and disrupt goods passage in a way that will affect the global market

• "The idea behind the Revolutionary Guards concept is to charge, to hurt." Iranian naval exercise in the Gulf

  Photo:

  AFP

The escalation between the US and Iran came out of the line this week and, for the first time since President Donald Trump entered the White House, an open, direct and undisputed confrontation between the World Power and the Islamic Republic. Eliminating Kassem Suleimani, the blatant Iranian threat of revenge and the Revolutionary Guards missile attack The U.S. military in Iran, how often Washington and Tehran, and consequently the entire region, have exposed a total flare-up.

But while Tehran's ballistic and cruise missile headlines followed the light of Wednesday's attack, Iran's most devastating response channel to both the US presence in the Persian Gulf and the global economy is naval military action in the Persian Gulf.

One who understands the nature of the threat is the United States itself, which issued an unusual warning to the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf vessels against Iran's takeover as a possible response to the Sulimani extermination.

The warning is not theoretical; Iran has taken over a number of vessels in the past year, the most notable of which is the British tanker "Stana Imparo", in response to a similar United Kingdom move against Iranian vessels carrying oil to Syria.

According to Western claims, Iran is also behind the attack on the port of Fujairah, one of the most important oil ports in the UAE, and damaging oil tankers at sea. Tehran has never been held accountable, but the United States has disseminated evidences of the naval power of the Revolutionary Guards returning to the scene.

Suffers one injury

Given the different style of the Iranian offensive in the maritime arena, Iran's empowerment in the field seems mostly confusing. Alongside the construction of advanced weapons such as missile and submarine ships, the Iranians own a vast fleet of small craft they secretly operate. "What is important to understand about Iran's naval power is that it is basically two separate forces," explains Ido Gilad, a research fellow at the Center for Marine Policy and Strategy Research and the Chaikin Chair of Geo-Strategy.

Prof. Shmuel Horev // Photo: University of Haifa

"Alongside the official navy of Iran, which holds an impressive amount, albeit outdated, of the vessels, there is also the naval power of the Revolutionary Guards. , Or actually terrorism, "explains Gilad.

This is one of the ideas that has become the hallmark of the man who was eliminated this week, Kassem Suleimani - to operate in several high stratified and sophisticated arenas, to allow many types of reactions and actions. Indeed, the naval force of the Revolutionary Guards is apparently behind most of Iran's maritime terrorist operations in the past year. The force is frequently used by Iran to send threats to the US. In 2015, the organization held a military exercise in which it attacked and seized an American aircraft carrier, an unmistakable threat to one of the US's most prestigious military assets.

"American aircraft carriers are easy targets for embedding," the Revolutionary Guards Naval Force commander, Admiral Ali Padabi, then boasted: "They are full of missiles, ammunition, aircraft fuel and torpedoes, one hit enough to trigger a wave of secondary explosions." Since then, Iran has repeatedly repeated the threat against American aircraft carriers.

"It is very difficult to hit American aircraft, there is indeed a dimension of ruthlessness here," explains Professor Shaul Horev, head of the Center for Maritime Policy and Strategic Studies at the University of Haifa. "Such a craft, apart from its firepower and aircraft and helicopters on it, is protected by a whole task force of small vessels, submarines, ships and small ships. All this does not eliminate the maritime threat of the Revolutionary Guards. The United States holds a huge navy, the Iranian Navy Not at all against him, but the idea behind the Revolutionary Guards concept is to charge, to hurt, to deter confrontation and escalation. Their tactics, such as using a swarm of small ships armed with missiles to confuse and damage larger vessels, large seashore missiles, and seizing vessels like they did to the US patrol ship, are operations that burn awareness and charge the enemy. "

Don't want to wake up the giant

A sea-level confrontation with Iran in the Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz is not just a military or luxury issue between Iran and the US. Strait of Hormuz is the gateway to more than 20 million barrels of oil a day, for all world markets. Not just the economies of the region's countries. , Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, is dependent on oil revenues but also the entire global energy market, making a confrontation, even relatively small, at bay for a global event.

Despite this, Prof. Horeb believes that there is a real chance that Iran will choose to respond precisely to this area of ​​action because of its high visibility. "The possibility of blocking or partially damaging the Strait of Hormuz is definitely in Tehran's response pool. They may limit the scope of the block or do it with different excuse or by indirect force and without official declaration, as they did in the past when taking over a vessel. "B has how to deal with such a thing," says Horev.

On the other hand, Gilad believes that a complex, even temporary, blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be for the Iranians as "a mental death with the Philistines." According to him, Iran itself depends on its dwindling oil revenues in the Straits, and conflict in the Gulf, even with limited intensity, is the last thing it needs.

Instead, Gilad chooses to look at Iran's operations differently.

"Iran's naval exercise with China and Russia two weeks ago and a storm in the world is intended not only to show that it is not diplomatically isolated, but to make it clear that, together with an alliance of foreign countries with a vested interest in the region such as India, Russia and China, it is able to secure Gulf freedom "They don't want to wake the American giant at this point," Gilad explains.

Whether Tehran is actually seeking to calm the Gulf winds, or preparing to resume terrorist attacks in the Gulf, the risk of the barrel of explosives found in the waters of Hormuz Bay should worry world leaders in general and area rulers in particular.