Politics
Written by: Luo Jiaqing
2020-01-20 07:00
Last updated: 2020-01-20 07:00After sweeping 388 seats in the district board elections, the democrats are more ambitious about the next war and the Legislative Council elections to be held in September. Dai Yaoting, an associate professor of law at the University of Hong Kong who proposed the "Thunder Plan" and "Feng Yun Plan", proposed "decentralization" "Thunderbolt 2.0" means that democrats are expected to capture more than half of the seats in the Legislative Assembly elections in September and regain parliamentary dominance.
Dai Yaoting accepted an interview with "Hong Kong 01" and talked about the concept and details of "Thunder 2.0". Dai said that "Thunder 2.0" is a trilogy of negotiations, primary elections and polls, and there will no longer be a "centralized" support list. Regarding the 2016 Legislative Assembly election, the "Thunder Plan" was accused of failure in deployment and operation, which caused some democrats to lose their seats. Dai admitted that due to insufficient strategic voters, "the clever woman can hardly be a rice cooker", which eventually made the operation process It is complicated and poses a lot of problems. Today, it is expected that the number of voters in the strategy has increased significantly, reaching half or even more. I believe that voters can allocate their own votes.
If the Democrats can take down more than half of the seats in the Legislative Council, will they represent a closer distance from the double universal suffrage? Dai Yaoting described the Legislative Council as a shield, mainly guarding nature. If the Democrats have won more than half of the seats in the Legislative Council, they can set up a special committee to investigate the 721 and 831 incidents, and prevent the passage of the "Budget" and police raises. "" The power to protect Hong Kong is huge. "
Dai Yaoting believes that as long as the public sentiment remains unchanged, the voter turnout rate in the Legislative Council can still be maintained at 70%. Unless the government launches a double universal suffrage, even if Chief Executive Lin Zheng Yue'e announces his resignation, the public sentiment will not change much. (Photo by Liang Pengwei)
Before the election, Dai Yaoting had expected that the Democrats would seize 300 seats. The outside world thought it was difficult to achieve, but in the end it was overfulfilled. He proposed a storm plan in 2018 to train amateur candidates to fill the White District. Dai Yaoting said that he had not been optimistic about the district election situation before the judgment of the Occupy Central Case. He did not expect an anti-revision law campaign to sweep the entire territory. As soon as he came out, a large number of amateurs had scattered around the district to run for election. Dai Yaoting described the fact that he finally won 388 seats was beyond imagination.
The district election war has just ended, and the Legislative Council elections have begun. The election is only half a year away. Dai Yaoting believes that as long as the public sentiment remains unchanged, the Legislative Council vote rate can still maintain 70%. He believes that unless the government launches dual universal suffrage, even if Chief Executive Lin Zheng Yue'e announces his resignation, there will not be much change in public sentiment. "Without one day of fundamental reforms in the system, you can imagine that the chance of a change in public sentiment is low."
Expect strategic voters to increase to more than half or more
In the 2016 Legislative Council election, Dai Yaoting had proposed a thunder plan, calling for voters to vote strategically and play "Thunder Rescue" on the day of the election. However, some candidates thought that the deployment was disrupted and the plan caused controversy. Drawing on the experience of the previous session, this time Dai Yaoting adjusted his plan and proposed "Decentralization" Thunderbolt 2.0. He calculated that only 15-20% of the strategic voters were elected before the 2016 Legislative Council election, and it increased to 40% after the vote. Until now, more than half are expected. More strategic voters, "I am willing to vote for my favorite candidate, but I am willing to vote for candidates from the same camp. This kind of voting with a good fit (in line with) proportional representation system has a great chance of successful voting. "
This time Dai Yaoting advocated the trilogy of coordination, primary elections, and polls, and there would no longer be a voting recommendation list. He believes that strategic voters already know how to vote. "When the base of strategic voters is large enough, the more diverse the voting methods, the more accurate." For example, if the Democrats compete for three seats in the Kowloon East Constituency, "three members of a family (each person Each candidate is a democratic candidate, "stressing that there is no need to be overly complicated. Voters can divide their own work and avoid the situation of the previous term. Dai Yaoting emphasized that the last time needed "Thunder to save the soldiers", all due to insufficient strategic voters, and "smart women are hard to cook without rice", which led to a complicated operation process and constituted a lot of problems. They believed that "IKEA has a lot of rice", and voters have mastered the method of voting .
Dai Yaoting suggested that those who intend to elect the Legislative Assembly should make their statements before March, because it takes time to conduct consultations. If the negotiation is not successful, a preliminary election can be held. The preliminary election can be conducted before the nomination period, and it is the responsibility of groups such as Democratic Power. . (Photo by Hong Jiahui)
"Poll is the last line of insurance" advocated for election in early July
Dai Yaoting suggested that those who intend to elect the Legislative Council should make their statements before March. It will take time to conduct consultations. If the negotiation is not successful, a preliminary election can be held. The primary election can be conducted in early July, that is, before the nomination period. ; Because it is not excluded that organizations are unwilling to conduct primary elections, there is a need for polls, and he described them as the last line of insurance.
For example, Dai said that if six lists have been selected for the primary election, but other democratic people have signed up before the nomination period, the final poll will show those candidates who are ranked in the top six. After the voters have obtained the relevant information, they can decide who they want to vote for . He said that he had contacted Zhong Tingyao, the chairman and chief executive officer of the Hong Kong Institute of Public Opinion, and proposed to organize a poll, which is expected to begin in mid-July until the results are announced two or three days before the vote. Prospective candidates have indicated their willingness to participate in the primary election, while citizens have indicated their willingness to vote strategically.
Regarding the mode of the primary election, Dai Yaoting said that currently he has heard two plans. Like the seed team, the current Legislative Council members or political parties with current Legislative Council members are not required to participate in the primary election, and other interested participants are required to participate; The second is that all prospective participants need to be primary selected. Dai believes that from the perspective of credibility, it is better for everyone to participate in the primary election. He also expected that most prospective candidates would be willing to go for the primaries, "if they are willing to go for the primaries, they will be disturbed", and "the primaries will give voters a sense of unity."
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Dai Yaoting analyzed that in the 2020 Legislative Council elections, democrats have the opportunity to challenge and succeed in the construction of the park, engineering, and catering industries. (Photo by Yu Junliang)
In this District Council election, a large number of amateurs have risen to win seats, and they have more opportunities to refer to the seats in the legislative council next year. Will the participation of amateurs increase the difficulty of negotiation and primary elections? Dai Yaoting said that the results of the recent district elections showed that the democratic constituencies in the constituencies without primary elections were defeated. On the contrary, the general public in the constituencies who were willing to win the primary elections all won. "," Originally Huangtian will become Huangtian, but Huangtian will not change. "
Democrats are expected to have between 19 and 24 seats
Dai Yaoting analyzed that if the establishment faction adopts an aggressive strategy (sending multiple people to fight for the most seats), the democrats may succeed in stealing chickens and win 24 seats in the regional direct elections. Among them, the East New Territories ideally can win 7 seats and the New Territories. West can win 6 seats, Kowloon West and Hong Kong Island can get 4 seats, while Kowloon East has 3 seats; if the conservative system adopts a conservative strategy (Gu said "stabilizing the wave"), it is expected that Democrats can only win 19-20 Seats. However, he emphasized that in addition to the seven existing functional constituency seats, the construction industry, the construction industry, the engineering industry, the catering industry, etc. also have the opportunity to challenge success; if "the list is evenly divided, there will not be too many". Legislative Council elections can take more than half of the seats.
If more than half of the Democrats are seated, can the distance between the two universal suffrage elections be brought closer? Dai Yaoting said that in fact, it is only defensive enhancement. "The dual universal suffrage system must be aggressive, and the Legislative Council will not allow you to take me away. You can use examples to take away my rights and freedom, and you can mess with me. Save money ", he described the Legislative Council as a shield, guarding nature; district councils are the spears.
So, will the central government give way to issues such as political reform? Dai Yaoting pointed out that he was not optimistic, but "there is no danger of losing our land". For example, the Legislative Council could set up a special committee to investigate the 721 and 831 incidents, and prevent the passage of budgets and police pay increases, emphasizing "the protection of Hong Kong" Great power. "
Dai Yaoting believes that it is more difficult for the democratic to win in the election of the chief executive, but he believes that conditions can be opened to the business community, including the establishment of an independent commission of inquiry and the resumption of political reforms. "Yunken (the Democratic Election Committee) will not vote." (Photo by Liang Pengwei)
The top pick will be "Three Kingdoms Game"
The victory of the Democrats in the District Councils meant that the general public included 117 special preferred votes. Dai Yaoting described the special preferred committee as a "three kingdoms game." He analyzed that the Democrats currently have more than 400 votes. It is expected that the number of votes in some functional constituencies such as the engineering and catering sectors will increase to 500. The centrally-controlled election committee also has about 500 votes. The remaining Most of the votes are business votes. "The strongest Wei is the central government; the democrats are Wu; the business is Shu, which determines the overall situation."
He believes that it is more difficult for Democrats to win in the election of the Chief Executive, but conditions can be given to the business community, including the establishment of an independent commission of inquiry and the resumption of political reform. "Junken (the Democratic Election Committee) will not vote." He expected to implement "True The opportunity for "general election" will be in 2022, or depending on when Lin Zheng resigned, "a by-election will occur as soon as he resigns, and the Three Kingdoms game will start."
In the past, the "Occupy Central", the Thunder Plan, and the Fengyun Plan were mentioned. Before it happened, some people always regarded it as "sky and horses", and eventually it came true, and some were over-completed. Dai Yaoting bluntly said that the plan he has proposed since the beginning is not empty talk. There is data behind it and it can also be practiced in theory. "When it comes to implementation, it is often a matter of doing things with me, because when I mention Idea, everyone is not necessarily Buy In (accept) I am a Plan, it is Buy In my Idea, such as Buy In Fengyun (plan) idea, there is Own idea (completed by my own method). "For this thunder plan, Dai Yaoting Called himself a Sell idea and reiterated that as long as there are enough voters and not used for centralized planning, there is almost a 70% or more chance of success.
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