A "shabby manipulation" for Marine Le Pen, a "desire of the government to hide the result", according to Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, with the consequence of "breaking the thermometer", also attacked the former leader of Europe Ecology- The Greens, David Cormand. The circular from the Ministry of the Interior, Christophe Castaner, planning to modify the rules for attributing political nuances to candidates in municipal elections, was unanimously opposed in opposition.
In question, in particular, the ceiling below which no political nuance will be given automatically to the candidates, and that the government plans to raise to 9000 inhabitants, against 1000 in 2014. This would also concern all the sub-prefectures of the country, whatever whatever their size.
Friday morning, the Interior Minister told the Parisian that these "small towns", which represent 96% of French municipalities and 52% of the electorate, would not be included in the communication of overall results on election night. Which could have important effects.
Almost two more points for LREM
Failing to be able to look into LREM's score in the 2014 municipal elections, given that the party was only launched in 2016, let's look at the European elections on May 26th. The ballot is obviously not of the same type or the same issue as the municipal ones, but it still gives an idea of the electoral base of the different political forces.
Nationally, the majority list, led by Nathalie Loiseau, obtained 22.4% of the votes, just behind that of the National Rally (23.3%). By taking into account only the municipalities of more than 9000 inhabitants and all the sub-prefectures, the score of the majority party would pass, according to our calculations, to 23.9%, while the RN would drop to 19.2%.
On the side of the two other parties that follow in the ranking, the Republicans would reach 8.1%, while they achieved 8.48% on May 26. For environmentalists, this would give 14.4%, one point more than the 13.48% obtained eight months ago.
The majority party would therefore have been the main beneficiary of such a rule, if it had been applied to a European ballot. "This France of more than 9000 inhabitants, yes, it is a more macronist France, it is a less Lepéniste France. So there, there is perhaps the temptation to hide the inevitable weakness of the Republic on the march in the municipal elections ", estimated the political scientist Pascal Perrineau in" The Eye of 20 hours "of France 2, which applied at the same calculation exercise. Hence the annoyance of the oppositions, and in particular of the RN and its president Marine Le Pen.
New arbitrations expected?
Of course, the municipal ballot has its own specificities. On the one hand, each citizen votes to elect the mayor of his own commune, and not for a national list led by the same head of list everywhere in France. On the other hand, the bonus can be given to an elected official whose political sensitivity is not necessarily shared, but who is deemed good for his municipality, or to the outgoing mayor. However, LREM, launched in 2016, has no outgoing elected representative. Which makes say to the Association of Mayors of France (AMF), on its site, that there is "hardly any sense" to compare the municipal elections with the European ballot.
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Except that the argument of voting without taking into account political affiliation works especially in small municipalities, and therefore with less than 9000 inhabitants, where the proximity between the inhabitants and their mayor is much stronger. And these figures still show the importance of large cities in the electoral base of LREM. This may explain, in part, the anger of the oppositions.
This kind of shabby manipulation must be exposed! We cannot wipe out the voters of 96% of French municipalities, even to please Jupiter !! MLP # Municipales2020 https://t.co/vcvWQ7lveF
- Marine Le Pen (@MLP_officiel) January 16, 2020Especially since the circular also provides, for all cities regardless of size, a new range of political nuances. One of them, LVDC (center), could include mayors invested by an opposition party but supported by the majority, and thus amplify the score of the latter.
Friday late afternoon, the Interior Ministry finally informed us that an arbitration was yet to be rendered on display. New indications could be given in the coming days.
