OPINION | Coronavirus: myth and reality

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Editor's Note : Roberto Izurieta is Director of Latin American Projects at George Washington University. He has worked in political campaigns in several countries in Latin America and Spain and has been an adviser to Presidents Alejandro Toledo of Peru, Vicente Fox of Mexico and Alvaro Colom of Guatemala. Izurieta is also a political analyst on CNN en Español. The opinions expressed in this column are exclusive to the author.

(CNN Spanish) - The coronavirus pandemic is one of the most important in modern history, comparable in severity and lethality to the 1918-1919 influenza (erroneously called the Spanish flu), but with one important difference: the influenza pandemic He discriminated less against his dead, frequently killing young people, pregnant women and children.

Several studies have shown that coronavirus cases in young children tend to be mild, and that cases in youth or adults have low mortality rates. But in the elderly, particularly among those over 80 years of age or those who suffer from chronic respiratory, heart or diabetes diseases, it has a mortality rate of 8% or even higher.

This means that the coronavirus follows rules close to those studied by Darwin: natural selection, affecting the weakest, the oldest and the chronically ill ... which is very sad and continues to be serious.

• MORE: This map shows you the situation of the coronavirus in the world in real time

There are more cruel viruses, such as Ebola or rabies, that do not discriminate and kill most of those exposed, regardless of their age or state of health. And there are many others, that even when patients are cured, they leave them with affectations for the rest of their lives.

But there is a question on everyone's mind: when is it going to end? Is there an answer? Well, yes there is. The epidemic is going to end or decrease significantly - until it becomes a footnote - before the end of winter 2020-2021 in the northern hemisphere, or probably by March or April 2021. Why? For two reasons:

The world population is not protected, but as people become infected, the population's level of immunity increases. And when the level of immunity approaches half the population, the virus will no longer be able to spread indiscriminately. For this reason, when a couple of epidemic waves have passed, one this winter and another, the next, a good part of the population will have already been exposed. To continue spreading any epidemic, or pandemic, you need a high proportion of the population to be susceptible.

Given the urgency, the economic / productive incentives of pharmaceutical companies and the level of development of technology, it is expected that by the end of next winter there will be one or more vaccines. If necessary, those vaccines will surely be licensed under "emergent use" rules. It is also quite likely that more specific coronavirus antivirals will be available by then that will most likely be available before the vaccine.

So we have to remain cautious for another year or so, but we must return to normality prudently so that the consequences on the household economy are not greater than those of the disease. Until then, avoid keeping close contacts, do not go to places where there are crowds, do not go near people who cough, wash your hands very often (also remember to clean your cell phone which is the most touched and used in these modern times) And, above all, do not celebrate your 80 years accompanied by all your loved ones, healthy or not.

A recent study published in the official journal of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (CDC, for its English churches) assures that when sharing the house with a sick person, 10.5% of the people registered symptoms of Covid-19; while among other contacts classified as close, the contagion was less than 1%.

The recommendations are:

coronavirus