Pence: We will be “watching” while the votes are counted 1:02
(CNN) -
As election night turns into the morning after, there is still
much
we don't know about the race to be the next president and to control the United States Senate.
For an election that attracted more voter interest than any in recent memory, the first results were remarkably predictable.
President Donald Trump won victories in the traditional Republican states.
Former Vice President Joe Biden did the same in credible Democratic states.
The normality of the map, at least as Tuesday night turned into Wednesday morning, in what has been one of the least normal extended periods in American political history, created something of a news vacuum in the early hours. of the scrutiny.
Twitter was quick to fill that void, with skittish Democrats wildly sharing the news that the betting markets had shifted to Trump (which is indicative of not much) and Republicans insisting that we were again seeing the moment of global impact. Trump in 2016. (One thing we
do
know for sure: Democrats' dreams of Biden sweeping through will not happen.)
The truth is, even though the calendar has changed to Nov. 4, it is simply too early to announce the outcome of the race for the presidency and the battle for a majority in the Senate.
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Without definitive answers, where should we keep our collective eyes for the next 24 to 48 hours?
Below are some locations.
1) The Rust Belt, again:
From the beginning of Biden's campaign for the Democratic nomination, he had a simple argument for his party members:
If we can take back Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, we take back the White House.
And I am the best candidate in the party to achieve it.
As the day after the election dawns, Biden's initial promise will be put to the test.
It is not yet clear whether Biden will need to sweep Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan or win two of the three (or one of the three) to reach 270 electoral votes.
But there is little doubt at this point that his fate (and Trump's) hinges on the results in that trio of states.
2) The game of perception:
As most Americans, including on the West Coast, began turning off their televisions and silencing their phones, Biden led the electoral vote tally but Trump was ahead in several key states thanks several of them tabulated the votes cast on Election Day before adding those cast early, either by mail or in person.
How do those conflicting signals influence the way people talk and think about the race through Wednesday (and beyond)?
If the past is prologue, being ahead, even by a single vote (electoral or otherwise) has a huge impact on the public perception of who is likely to win.
(Al Gore's campaign was always fighting the perception that he was losing the race during the Florida recount because George W. Bush was ahead.)
So are people clinging to Biden's likely electoral leadership when he wakes up Wednesday morning?
Or are they looking at possible Trump advantages in raw vote totals in the unannounced states?
3) Trump's tactic:
The president's Twitter account, always the best window on what he's thinking, was relatively quiet overnight Tuesday.
But while Biden was addressing his supporters in Delaware shortly after midnight ET, Trump tweeted this: “We're going BIG, but they're trying to STEAL the election.
We will never allow them to do so.
Votes cannot be cast after the polls are closed! "
That's consistent with his pre-election message: The factless claim that the continued counting of mail-in ballots in urban areas is somehow evidence that the race is being taken away from him.
Due to the fears surrounding the coronavirus, the way the United States voted in this election was simply different, with a massive number (over 100 million) casting votes before Election Day.
That radical change means that the vote count is slower than in past elections.
But that is evidence that the system works, not that it fails.
Of course, Trump is capable of convincing his supporters of anything - to hell with the facts - and he appears to be fully committed to making this bogus argument even when legally cast votes are counted.
Biden, for his part, said in a tweet: “We feel good about where we are.
We believe that we are on our way to winning these elections.
4) Senate Republicans Feel Good:
Nothing, as I noted earlier, is close to ending yet.
But Senate Republicans feel much better about their chances of winning a majority on Wednesday than on Tuesday.
Why?
Because, as in the presidential race, things have generally gone as expected so far.
Yes, Sen. Cory Gardner (Colorado), the most endangered incumbent Republican senator, lost.
But so did Senator Doug Jones (Alabama), the most vulnerable sitting Democratic senator.
Which left the math exactly where we started at the beginning of the night: Democrats need to get three seats for the majority (if Biden wins) or four seats (if he doesn't).
The long chances that Democratic rivals oust Republican rulers in South Carolina and Texas fell by the wayside.
And in delivery races in North Carolina, Maine, and Georgia, incumbent Republican senators held varying sizes of leads over their Democratic opponents.
Those three states, plus Arizona, where Democrat Mark Kelly has a clear advantage over Sen. Martha McSally, will decide which side has the majority in January.
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5) The Lawsuits:
Remember that over the weekend, Trump said this about Pennsylvania and his plan to continue counting mail-in ballots for several days after Tuesday: “Now, I don't know if that's going to change, because we will go on the night of… as soon as the elections are over, we will go with our lawyers.
What he and his legal team do, in Pennsylvania and other states that will continue to count ballots through Wednesday and maybe even Thursday, is anyone's guess.
But Trump has long used litigation (or the threat of litigation) to muddy the waters or intimidate people into giving him what he wants.
That, of course, will not be so easy in a scenario where the presidency is at stake.
Biden and his legal team will reject any attempt to stop the vote counting or invalidate the ballots.
And then, like almost everything, it will come down to lawyers and judges.
Something similar to what happened in the 2000 presidential race. In that contest, the Bush legal team was widely considered to have won the legal fight, allowing the then governor of Texas to win the political fight (and the presidency).
Who will judge history for having won the next legal battle in this election?
Elections 2020 United States