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Ceasefire in Nagorno Karabakh: "Armenia is the loser"

2020-11-11T05:53:38.186Z


Cheers in Azerbaijan, riots against the government in Armenia: the newly negotiated ceasefire could stabilize the situation in the Caucasus for the time being. That would be thanks neither to NATO nor to the EU.


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After five weeks of war, Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed on a ceasefire in the embattled Nagorno-Karabakh.

Both sides agreed to an agreement that Russia brokered. 

The signing of the agreement resulted in spontaneous celebrations in Azerbaijan.

In the Armenian capital, however, there were riots.

Protesters occupied the government building in Yerevan on Tuesday night.

They smashed furniture, doors and windows.

Some have penetrated into the office of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Maximilian Popp, DER SPIEGEL


"The ceasefire comes only as a partial surprise. In the end, the military superiority of Azerbaijan and its allies, especially Turkey, was probably simply too great. Armenia had to more or less submit. Azerbaijan is clearly the winner of this agreement, Armenia is the loser. Although it has to be said that things could have been worse for Armenia. The Armenians have to withdraw from some of the territories they have held so far, but keep parts of the enclave itself and Russian soldiers are to oversee the ceasefire In Armenia, however, many people perceive this deal as a kind of declaration of surrender, and it is questionable whether Prime Minister Pashinyan will be able to stay in power after these events. 

The new skirmishes in the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh had been going on since the end of September.

The conflict itself has been around for decades.

Azerbaijan lost control of the mountainous area with about 145,000 inhabitants in a war after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Nagorno-Karabakh, mostly populated by Armenians but on Azerbaijani territory, declared itself independent - but is not recognized as a state.

A fragile ceasefire had existed in the region since 1994.   

Maximilian Popp, DER SPIEGEL


"The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan was also an international proxy war from the start. Turkey in particular played an important role. The Turkish government, for example, has sent Syrian mercenaries to the Caucasus and Azerbaijan has supported it with drones. Russia, in turn has held back for a long time. In the end, it was Vladimir Putin who negotiated this decisive ceasefire. Moscow is making it clear that not much can happen in the post-Soviet area without the Kremlin. "

During the past five weeks Azerbaijan was able to conquer part of the area.

In the new ceasefire agreement, Armenia has now pledged to withdraw from the so-called buffer zone around the core area of ​​Nagorno Karabakh.

The sticking point is likely to be a narrow corridor that connects Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia.  

Maximilian Popp, DER SPIEGEL


"In the past few months three cease-fires have failed in Nagorno-Karabakh. This time it could turn out differently. There is one crucial difference. Russia is sending peacekeepers to the region and it is not likely that either of the two warring parties will agree What is striking is that the international community actually plays no role in this conflict, as in northern Syria, as in Libya.In the end, it was again the President of Turkey, Erdoğan and the Russian ruler Putin who negotiated this ceasefire and who now decide on the fate of the region. "

The civilian population carries the suffering.

Around 100,000 people had fled the villages and towns in the past few weeks after massive shelling, most of them to Armenia. 

Maximilian Popp, DER SPIEGEL


"One of the very important questions that now arises is: What happens to the people who have fled the region, to the displaced? Can they return to their homes? Are you sure? The UN should Coordinating this process, on the one hand. On the other hand, the President of Azerbaijan, Aliyev, has called the Armenians 'dogs' and threatened ethnic cleansing. So there is a big question mark. "

Source: spiegel

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