A working paper, prepared by senior members of the National Security Council and the Ministry of Defense and obtained by Israel Today, reveals: The three submarines that Israel intended to purchase from Germany were intended to replace three of the old submarines. • The document, prepared ahead of Netanyahu's meeting with Merkel in 2015, contradicts Ya'alon's claims "Heavy corruption"
Submarine of Chai Lehim // Photo: Kfir Ziv
Israel did not intend to hold a total of more than six submarines - according to a document obtained by Israel Today and revealed for the first time.
It is a working paper, prepared jointly by the most senior officials in the National Security Council and the Ministry of Defense who dealt with the issue. The paper was prepared for the meeting of the Prime Minister and German Chancellor in Berlin on October 21, 2015. This draft was also presented to Merkel and her adviser. For National Security Christoph Heisgen on another visit by Benjamin Netanyahu to the German capital, in late February 2016. This draft is the same document that was ejected from the red fax in the office of the Director General of the Ministry of Defense, and senior officials looked at it "in utter astonishment". Recent ".
The working paper, recently approved for publication, details the background to the understandings between Israel and Germany for the purchase of submarines in recent years and in the coming years.
"The submarine's contribution to Israel's security is enormous," the paper said. "The Israeli government sees great importance in the ongoing cooperation in the region, with the aim of preserving production lines in Germany and preserving the number of submarines in the coming decades."
It goes on to state that "the German government has provided the Israeli government with six submarines (five in practice, one in the future)".
These are three "Dolphin" submarines, the oldest of which will be out of service in 2028, two more advanced AIP dolphin submarines, which came into use in 2014 and 2016, and a sixth submarine, which was originally planned to arrive last year but is delayed for professional reasons and is now expected to enter For use towards 2023.
The second part of the working paper deals with "proposal and request", which states that the parties "will sign a framework agreement for the supply of three additional submarines (9,8,7) to be sent (from Germany to Israel) in the years 2027 - 2031".
These advanced submarines are classified in the working paper as "futures".
Head to Head
A diagram that appears at the end of the paper makes it clear that those three advanced submarines (7-9) are not in addition to the current ones, but in their place.
For example: the oldest submarine, which will be out of use in eight years, was intended to be replaced that very year (2028) by the first future submarine that Germany will supply to Israel - that is, a head-to-head replacement.
Subsequent exchanges were scheduled for 2030 and 2032.
That is, any new submarine that is supposed to come into use will replace an old submarine that retires from the Order of Forces.
Meaning: At any given time, Israel will hold a maximum total of six submarines - no more than that.
In response to Israel Today's request, the deputy head of the National Security Council until January 2016 and later the National Security Adviser and the current head of the National Security Council, Brigadier General (Res.) Yaakov Nagel, clarified that the working paper was "not prepared in the dark," as claimed. The headquarters for his writing was done in full cooperation with the responsible person in the Ministry of Defense for the issue of submarines, whose identity can not be revealed for security reasons. - Moshe (Boogie) Ya'alon and Dan Harel, and the changes they sought to include in it were included in the draft.
Ya'alon and Harel, as well as other senior members of the defense establishment, now claim that they witnessed improper conduct that requires an investigation into the submarine deal (Ya'alon even claims "heavy corruption").
These facts seemingly contradict the versions given by the Minister of Defense at the time, Ya'alon.
According to Ya'alon, in February 2016, he revealed "in case the Prime Minister intends to travel to Germany for a meeting with the Chancellor and intends to sign a contract with her to supply 3 more submarines."
In practice, the working paper revealed here, on which the memorandum of understanding to which Ya'alon referred was based, refutes many of his claims.
First, the working paper was prepared before the first meeting between Chancellor Merkel and the prime minister in Berlin in October 2015, that is, four full months before Ya'alon "discovered by chance" that Netanyahu was going to travel to Germany again and discuss the submarines;
And second, the working paper clearly indicates that Israel will continue to hold no more than 6 submarines at a time.
In other words, this is not "another 3 submarines", in a way that will increase the fleet to 9, as Ya'alon claims, but 3 submarines that will replace 3 old submarines.
Difficulty getting a thesis
The paper also disproves parts of Ronen Bergman's Yedioth Ahronoth investigation from last July, in which it was claimed that affidavits from senior defense officials "reveal that the oldest submarine in the navy is only half its life - and can operate successfully for another 15 years."
According to the investigation in Yedioth Ahronoth, this exposure ostensibly proves that the claim that new submarines must be purchased soon in order to replace the current ones, which will soon have to be replaced in any case, is "fundamentally flawed."
In practice, as the working paper shows, the oldest submarine, a dolphin, will retire in just eight years, not 15. In fact, the next two submarines will retire in less than 15 years - by 2032. This means: contrary to what is claimed In the investigation, there was certainly an immediate need to enter into a process that would lead to the purchase of 3 new submarines in order to replace the old one, in order to meet the decision of the political echelon and maintain a total of 6 submarines.
It should be noted that the minimum time for supplying a submarine and making it operational, from the moment of signing a development and equipment contract, is nine years, sometimes even 12 years.
This figure makes it very difficult to accept a thesis, according to which Israel planned to increase its submarine fleet to 9, as Ya'alon claimed and as Raviv Drucker wrote recently in an article in Haaretz.
If this was the intention, Israel would have to purchase 6 submarines - 3 that will replace the old ones that will be deployed in the years 2028-2032, and 3 more news.
On the other hand, according to Drucker, "the procurement will be scheduled so that the three new submarines will arrive long before the old ones become obsolete" - but as stated, this scenario does not reconcile with the schedules and submarine ages specified in the working paper.
Moreover, since to date no agreement has been signed with the German shipyards, it is already clear with almost complete certainty that the submarine that will retire from operations in 2028 will not be replaced by a newer submarine.
If no agreement is signed in the next two years, then in 2030 the total number of submarines in Israel will drop to 4, and to only 3 submarines in 2032 - if the deal is not signed soon.
Former Defense Minister and Chief of Staff, MK Moshe (Boogie) Ya'alon, responded: "At no point, at that time, did an operational demand arise from the Ministry of Defense or the IDF and the Navy to purchase 3 submarines and 2 anti-submarine ships. I do not know "No working paper on this issue from October 2015. When I discovered the draft memorandum of understanding that Netanyahu intended to sign in his meeting with the Chancellor in the amount of about 2 billion euros, I objected and refused to sign it."
