The first anniversary of the assassination of the Islamic Jihad leader in the Gaza Strip, to be celebrated next week, the corona - also economic - and the loose nerves of terrorist operatives in the Gaza Strip - all provide an area full of explosives for deterioration at the border, with the tunnel exposed in Gaza
Meanwhile, Hamas is trying to prevent an escalation.
IDF engineering tools search for a tunnel in the southern Gaza Strip, a week ago
The Islamic Jihad in Gaza has marked two memorial dates in the past week.
The first is the 25th anniversary of the death of Fathi Shakaki, the leader of the organization that was eliminated in Malta, and the second is the third anniversary of the destruction of the terrorist tunnel dug into Israeli territory, in which 10 members of the organization were killed.
These two Zionist days passed without any unusual events on the part of the organization.
But another event, to be marked next week, is likely to change the trend: the first anniversary of the assassination of Islamic Jihad leader in the Gaza Strip, Baha’u’llah Abu al-Ata.
Despite the promises, the jihad has so far not avenged his death.
Moreover, the organization's leaders in Damascus are urging activists in the Gaza Strip to align themselves with Hamas, and to prioritize calm over escalation.
This moderate line is not acceptable to all the operatives of the organization, especially to the loyalists of Baha.
The IDF is preparing for their action next week. Although the organization's top echelons are trying to prevent this - the activist who launched the last rocket two weeks ago, contrary to instructions, was caught and beaten to death - but their control is partial, and does not reach every activist and rocket.
In Israel, of course, they prefer peace to be maintained, but there are those who believe that it is probably a matter of fitness: if the rebellious elements act, it will be possible to act against them (even at the cost of a few days of unrest in the envelope).
It is likely that Hamas would also like Israel to neutralize for them those who threaten stability and the central government in the Gaza Strip;
By refraining from responding to Baha'i's assassination last year, Hamas has shown that it does not particularly mourn the removal of its rivals, and is certainly unwilling to jeopardize its vital interests.
Production over aid
Gaza (and it has been written many times, and true again and again) is in the worst situation in its history.
It turns out that the bottom of the barrel of poverty and despair is particularly deep, but now it has deepened further with the deadly combination of the medical corona and the economic corona.
If the first wave of the corona survived impressively Gaza - mainly as a result of extreme measures of border closure and isolation - the current wave is hitting it hard.
Although the number of daily tests in the Gaza Strip is low, recent data indicate more than 10% positive and an increasing number of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, to the point of endangering the ability of hospitals to function.
This is joined by the economic situation in the Gaza Strip, which is now deteriorating even further.
Thousands of workers who worked in Israel have been staying at home for months, and traders have been banned from entering and leaving.
This means a further increase in unemployment, and a significant decrease in the purchasing power of the Gazans, many of whom find it difficult to purchase basic basic products as well.
Israel is very concerned about this situation.
The fear is that in desperation, Hamas will abandon the lull and return to the escalation path.
That is why Israel is working to promote a series of economic projects with the Gaza Strip.
The idea is to promote employment and production over aid.
The person appointed to coordinate the issue is the director general of the Ministry of Defense, Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amir Eshel, but in the meantime things are progressing lazily - a combination of corona restrictions, and Israel's insistence on resolving the issue of prisoners and missing persons as a condition for any other progress.
One issue that has been resolved, spotty, is Qatari aid to the Strip.
The monthly payment was transferred to Gaza, this time two months in advance ($ 27 million each month, of which $ 17 million is aid and another $ 10 million for fuel purchases), but Israel is working with the Doha authorities to ensure multi-month assistance, hoping to achieve a long-term truce. Under the terms of the arrangement.
Bahá'u'lláh Abu Aleta
Israel is skeptical about the possibility that the Emirates will help with the Gaza issue, at least not now.
Hamas belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood and enjoys Qatari protection - the declared rival of the Emirates and Iran.
Until the struggle between them is decided (under American auspices), it is doubtful whether the emirates will help Gaza, certainly when it also comes at the expense of the Palestinian Authority, which does not enjoy sympathy in Abu Dhabi but is still preferable to Gaza over the Gaza alternative.
However, Israel is toying with the idea of harnessing the United Arab Emirates as a replacement for UNRWA, a refugee organization that helps hundreds of thousands of Gaza residents, whose funding has been frozen by the United States and other countries. And they may help establish an alternative mechanism that will cut off dependence on international aid, and create ways that will allow Gazans to earn a decent living.
Will flirting lead to devotion?
These moves will wait until the results of the US elections become clear. It is not just Gaza that is following the American drama: the entire Middle East is breathtaking, led by Iran.
The prevailing assessment is that any elected government will strive for a renewed nuclear deal with Iran.
The question is what agreement this will be;
Israel wants to make sure that this time it addresses not only the nuclear issue, but also Iran's military intensification and the assistance it provides to a number of terrorist elements, led by Hezbollah in Lebanon and the organizations in Gaza.
Under the economic sanctions on Iran, the aid that Iran transfers to Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad is reduced by tens of percent.
If they are removed, the amount will increase significantly, immediately, and the results will be felt on the ground.
Hamas - which for the time being only flirts with Iran - may also surrender to it, in order to gain a steady and stable source of income.
Meanwhile, Hamas has refrained from approaching the radical axis too dangerously, and as stated, prefers calm.
It must not be inferred that it has become an organization of peace: the last tunnel unveiled two weeks ago in Gaza shows that it is continuing to prepare for war, and is examining ways to challenge the obstacles Israel faces.
This tunnel was unusual in several ways.
It was excavated to an unusual depth, perhaps in an attempt to penetrate Israeli territory beneath an obstacle built along the Gaza border, and perhaps to challenge the obstacle and test its capabilities.
The barrier - and the technologies embedded in it, combined with the intelligence-operational concept used in the sector - met this challenge with impressive success, but it is doubtful whether Hamas will learn the lesson;
He is more likely to try again, in cuts or other ways.
In the meantime, Hamas will try to prevent an escalation.
His directive on the subject is clear, but the area is full of explosives.
The Baha'i anniversary is one of them;
The hunger strike of Maher al-Akhars - an Islamic Jihad operative from the West Bank who is administratively detained in Israel and on a 100-day hunger strike - also employs members of the organization in Gaza, as does the corona that erupted in Gilboa prison and infected dozens of Hamas prisoners.
On the face of it, none of this is a sufficient cause for escalation, but combined with the corona, the economic situation and the loose nerves of the terrorist operatives in the Strip - we may soon deteriorate into a few days of fighting in the south.