The agreement with Saudi Arabia and the moderate Arab countries will allow Qatar to become a moderator vis-à-vis Turkey and Hamas • There is no reason why an agreement should not be signed between Jerusalem and Doha • Interpretation
Saudi Crown Prince Ben Salman, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Amir Qatar Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani
Photography:
EP / Sharon Tzur / Reuters
The Middle East continues to make headlines at a murderous rate, and yesterday there were two: Iran's announcement that it had begun enriching uranium to 20 percent, and the announcement of a reconciliation agreement reached by the Americans between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and in fact between it and the entire moderate Sunni world.
The reconciliation agreement most likely seals the Trump administration's political moves in the region.
The president's envoys, Jared Kushner and Avi Berkovich, have been working on this agreement for the past few months, and it will end three years of open rivalry and mutual boycotts between Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, and Qatar.
More importantly, the reconciliation will make it possible to place a more stable and uniform front in the face of the negative factors in the region.
Although it is likely to be heard in the coming days that this agreement also has a price (in money, arms or both), it will also have advantages: Qatar is a major player in the Muslim Brotherhood - a major cause of hostility between it and its Gulf neighbors - and as such will now be a moderator against Turkey , And a more active factor in mediation and sedation efforts against Hamas in Gaza.
Qatar has quite a few reasons to want an agreement.
Along with its political and economic benefits, it will take a significant millstone away from it just before it enters the final line in the most significant event that awaits it: the 2022 World Cup, which will be held on its soil.
Qatar wants to come to this event as a winner, and not as a country plagued by a host of conflicts.
The bridge set by the Trump administration allows Qatar to do so, but it is also an opportunity for Israel.
Following the agreements signed with the Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, there is no reason in the world now that an agreement with Qatar will not be signed either.
Israel already had a Ministry of Interests in Doha, and Foreign Ministry staff had staffed it regularly for many years (× d to the middle of the previous decade).
The institution also has extensive ties in Qatar, and in fact - had it not been for its war in Saudi Arabia, it is likely that Qatar would have boarded the peace train earlier.
An agreement with Qatar will also further advance agreements with other Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia.
Estimates remain as they are - that the Saudis will seek to wait for the Biden administration - and the pressures exerted by Trump and his people will also be difficult to mature into agreements in the 15 days remaining for the White House president.
Iran's signal to the Americans
This tight time window is recognized by Iran, which announced yesterday that it has put into practice its decision to enrich uranium to a level of 20 percent.
This is the most significant violation Iran has ever made of the nuclear deal, having already raised the enrichment level to 4.5 percent, installed advanced centrifuges, and accumulated a much larger amount of enriched uranium than the agreement allows.
The Iranian move may shorten its path to the bomb, but it is still a long way off.
It is likely that Iran is not seeking to break into the nucleus right now, but to accumulate assets ahead of the forthcoming negotiations with the Biden government on a return to the nuclear deal. This is, in fact, a classic "hold me" signal to the Americans that if there is no progress in negotiations, there will be progress. .
Iran has previously enriched uranium to 20 percent.
The material it has accumulated has been taken from it as part of the original nuclear deal, and even now it will gladly give it up in favor of a return to the agreement, and mainly to remove from it the harsh sanctions imposed on it as part of the United States' withdrawal from it.
She has likely been waiting with the move so far to make sure Trump is in his last days in office, and will not be able to lead a military move against her.
This is exactly Iran's weak point that Israel needs to take advantage of: make it clear to the Biden administration that Iran is breaking all understanding and every agreement, and playing with weapons of mass destruction.
Israel must also have an available and reliable military option, and make it clear to the Americans that it is ready to exercise it.
And unlike the previous agreement, this time Israel does not come to this battle alone: its new friends in the Gulf will stand by it, and in this respect - the agreement with Qatar is excellent news for the "good" camp, and a little less good news for Tehran.
