In Mainz, red-green-yellow rules - and according to surveys on the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate, it can stay that way.
The SPD still seems to be losing percentages.
On
March 14
, the state election in 2021 takes place in
Rheinland-Pfalz
instead.
Surveys show high popularity ratings for the incumbent SPD
Prime Minister
.
The election forecasts suggest that there could be a close race between the CDU and the SPD.
Update from March 11, 12.23 p.m.:
Around 3.1 million eligible voters are called on Sunday in Rhineland-Palatinate to elect a new state parliament.
Prime Minister Malu Dreyer's SPD is fighting with the CDU for challenger Christian Baldauf for the position of the strongest force. In surveys, both parties have recently been in a neck-and-neck race.
A total of twelve parties and an electoral association are competing for the 101 seats in the Mainz parliament.
Because of the corona pandemic *, according to the state election management, significantly more people have already cast their votes by postal vote than usual.
After 30 years in the opposition, the CDU wants to replace the ruling SPD.
In the polls it looked like it could become the strongest force for a long time.
But the SPD is on the upswing a few days before the election and was able to overtake the CDU, plagued by the mask affair, in a survey: The
ZDF
recently forecast 33 percent for the SPD, while the CDU fell behind with 29 percent.
A survey by the
Bild
newspaper found both parties to be on par with 30 percent each.
Baldauf last complained about the mask affair: "It's not a tailwind."
State election in Rhineland-Palatinate: can Dreyer continue the traffic light coalition?
It almost seems as if a pattern is repeating itself: Even in the state elections in 2016, the CDU was long ahead in polls, but was overtaken by the SPD on election evening.
The then CDU top candidate Julia Klöckner had to admit defeat.
The SPD is threatened with a bad election result this year.
The previous negative record was the state elections in 1955 with 31.7 percent.
If the head of government were to be directly elected, the polls show that between 53 and 59 percent of those surveyed would choose Dreyer and 28 percent to 29 percent would choose Baldauf.
According to surveys, Dreyer can continue the traffic light coalition forged in 2016 made up of the SPD, FDP and the Greens.
The Greens come up with results between eleven and twelve percent, the FDP between six and nine percent.
According to a
ZDF
survey, it would just barely be enough for a red-green coalition.
Both parties would need the FDP for a majority.
The left, in turn, would fail again with three percent at the five percent hurdle.
According to the latest surveys, it is not enough for black and green either.
A majority would have a Jamaican alliance including the FDP.
The AfD is categorically ruled out as a coalition partner for CDU top candidate Baldauf.
Mathematically, there is also the possibility of a grand coalition with the SPD.
But this variant is generally considered to be the most unlikely.
State election in Rhineland-Palatinate: Dreyer's SPD loses in polls - head to head with the CDU
Update from March 9, 5:01 p.m.:
A few days before the state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate on Sunday, a head-to-head race between the ruling SPD and the opposition CDU is emerging.
As the
Bild
newspaper (Wednesday edition) writes, citing a representative survey by the Insa Institute, the CDU has lost three points compared to the February survey and is 30 percent.
The SPD loses one point and is also 30 percent.
Institute |
date |
SPD |
CDU |
AfD |
FDP |
Green |
The left |
Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INSA / image |
03/09/2021 |
30th |
30th |
10 |
6th |
12th |
3 |
9 |
ZDF political barometer |
05.03.2021 |
33 |
29 |
9 |
7th |
11 |
3 |
8th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
02/25/2021 |
30th |
31 |
9 |
7th |
12th |
3 |
4th |
INSA / image |
02/23/2021 |
31 |
33 |
9 |
6th |
12th |
3 |
3 |
ZDF political barometer |
02/05/2021 |
31 |
33 |
7th |
5 |
13th |
4th |
7th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
01/14/2021 |
28 |
33 |
8th |
6th |
15th |
3 |
7th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
December 10, 2020 |
28 |
34 |
9 |
5 |
15th |
3 |
6th |
INSA / image |
October 21, 2020 |
27 |
33 |
10 |
5 |
14th |
5 |
6th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
09/10/2020 |
26 |
34 |
9 |
6th |
17th |
4th |
4th |
State election 2016 |
03/13/2016 |
36.2 |
31.8 |
12.6 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
2.8 |
7th |
The previous traffic light coalition made up of the SPD, FDP and the Greens together has 48 percent and could defend its parliamentary majority.
But a Jamaica coalition of the CDU, the Greens and the FDP would also achieve 48 percent.
Theoretically, a coalition of the SPD and CDU is also conceivable, which would come to 60 percent, but is considered politically unlikely.
Insa boss Hermann Binkert told the
picture
: “Both the CDU and the SPD can become the strongest force in Rhineland-Palatinate.
For both big parties, however, it is even more important than being ahead to win the FDP and the Greens as coalition partners. "
In the state elections in 2016, the SPD achieved 36.2 percent, the CDU 31.8 percent, the AfD 12.6 percent, the FDP 6.2 percent, the Greens 5.3 percent, the Left 2.8 percent and the others Parties together 5.0 percent.
Survey hammer shortly before the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate: Dreyer's SPD flies past the CDU
Update from March 5th, 5:34 pm:
According to the current ZFD “Politbarometer”, the SPD is ahead in Rhineland-Palatinate, replacing the CDU as the leading party.
As a result, the SPD with head of government Malu Dreyer * comes to 33 percent (+2 percentage points compared to February), the CDU with challenger Christian Baldauf * only 29 percent (-4 percentage points).
Behind are the Greens (11 percent), who also lose easily.
It is followed by the AfD (9 percent) and FDP (7 percent), which each gained two percentage points.
Update from February 25, 10:30 a.m.:
A head-to-head race is emerging before the state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate.
A survey published on February 25 by the Infratest dimap institute for the SWR shows that the gap between the ruling SPD of Prime Minister Malu Dreyer and the opposition CDU is small.
The CDU of Dreyer challenger Christian Baldauf is currently 31 percent - and thus still ahead.
The SPD follows directly with 30 percent.
Only one percentage point difference.
The CDU has lost two percentage points since mid-January, while the Social Democrats gained two percentage points.
The Greens cut in the forecast weaker than in the previous month and would currently be 12 percent.
A minus of three percentage points.
The FDP achieved seven percent and thus a gain of one percentage point.
And the left remains stable at three percent and is thus still below the five percent hurdle.
This creates the following picture: According to the polls, the - currently ruling - traffic light coalition of the SPD, FDP and the Greens would still have a majority in the Mainz parliament.
Update from February 24th, 2.30 p.m.:
A new survey from February 23rd shows: The SPD has narrowed its distance to the CDU.
The ruling SPD is currently 31 percent, the CDU 33 percent.
According to the
survey by the opinion research institute Insa - commissioned by
Bild
- the Greens have lost two percentage points of approval and are now 12 percent - compared to the previous month (January 23).
FDP (6 percent), Left (3 percent) and AfD (9 percent) remain unchanged.
The research group Wahlen made a similar prognosis for ZDF at the beginning of February.
According to the polls, Prime Minister Malu Dreyer's red-yellow-green coalition would still have a majority.
State election 2021 in Rhineland-Palatinate: polls see CDU ahead - Malu Dreyer is still popular
First report from January 29th, 9:40 a.m .:
Mainz - For Prime Minister
Malu Dreyer (SPD)
the omens look good.
The state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate * will take place on March 14th in 2021.
The
polls
indicate that this time the CDU will be the strongest force in the state parliament and thus overtake the Social Democrats.
For the
traffic light coalition
, with which Malu Dreyer rules, there should still be a majority again.
Since the last state election, the balance of power between several parties has shifted.
A slight gain for the CDU * contrasts with a significant loss for the SPD *.
The polls for the RLP state election 2021 also show the great gains of the Greens, which have now clearly
overtaken
the
AfD
*.
The FDP should manage to return to the Mainz state parliament, while
Die Linke
* is expected to be below the 5 percent hurdle.
Surveys on the 2021 state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate
For all eligible voters who would like to compare the positions of the parties before the election, there is again the Wahl-O-Mat Rheinland-Pfalz *, which offers assistance.
State election forecasts for Rhineland-Palatinate show several possible coalitions
The SPD is predicted to lose around eight percentage points.
A new edition of the
coalition
of SPD, Greens and FDP * is still possible.
In the case of Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen *, the election researchers see a gain of around ten percentage points.
In principle, according to the
forecasts
for the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate,
black-green-yellow is also
possible.
But there is no mood of change in the state.
The
ruling parties
appeared at the beginning of the election year emphasizes satisfied with the cooperation.
Christian Baldauf
, the top candidate of the
CDU
, is therefore not the top favorite for the office of Prime Minister.
After the RLP state election, he must hope
to bring the
Greens
and
FDP together
in a new coalition.
Finally, there is still the possibility that the election result will differ significantly from the forecasts.
If the two obvious coalitions of three parties do not work out, a
GroKo
remains the
stopgap
solution.
If the CDU and SPD then form a coalition, Baldauf would probably replace Dreyer as the candidate of the strongest party.
Popularity of the top candidates: This is what the polls for the RLP 2021 state election say
When it comes to the
top candidates
, the incumbent Prime Minister again has the
popularity ratings
on her side.
This was shown again in January 2021 in a survey by SWR on the occasion of the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate.
In the opinion of the top candidates of the parties, Malu Dreyer achieved the best value by a large margin.
71 percent of those surveyed were satisfied or very satisfied with the incumbent.
With Christian Baldauf it was only 33 percent.
(rm) * Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network