The prognoses for the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate show a clear SPD victory and a CDU crash.
The current coalition could continue to govern.
The forecasts for the state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate are there.
Malu Dreyer (SPD) has all the trumps in hand.
See the results from Rhineland-Palatinate as interactive graphics *.
This ticker is continuously updated.
Live forecasts: All figures for the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate in percent
source |
Time |
SPD |
CDU |
AfD |
FDP |
Green |
left |
Free voters |
Others |
ZDF |
9:06 p.m. |
35.7 |
27.4 |
8.5 |
5.5 |
9.1 |
2.5 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
ARD |
8:14 p.m. |
36.0 |
26.8 |
9.1 |
5.7 |
8.2 |
2.3 |
6.1 |
5.8 |
Free voters are sure to be forecast in the RLP state parliament
Update from March 14, 8:58 p.m.:
The free voters express high hopes after the forecasts for the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate.
According to the current status, you will surely move into the state parliament.
Along with Brandenburg and Bavaria, it would be the third state parliament in which the free voters are represented.
“That is a very strong performance.
The people see the Free Voters more and more as a new down-to-earth, bourgeois party in all of Germany, ”said the Federal President Hubert Aiwanger on Sunday evening.
With a view to the federal election in September, Aiwanger interprets the RLP result as a positive signal.
The Free Voters could become “the new liberal-conservative force also at the federal level”.
Update from March 14th, 8:18 pm:
Further projections from Rhineland-Palatinate are there.
The current numbers of the ARD: SPD 35.5%, CDU 26.8%, AfD 9.1%, FDP 5.7%, Greens 8.2% and Free Voters 6.1%.
Update from March 14, 7:36 p.m.:
The forecasts are confirmed in the course of the evening.
Most recently, the ARD saw the parties at the following percentages: SPD 35.5%, CDU 26.9%, AfD 9.3%, Greens 8.2%, FDP 5.9% and Free Voters 5.8%.
The left is not represented in the state parliament with 2.5%.
SPD celebrates after the forecasts for the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate
Update from March 14th, 7.11 p.m.:
The SPD state chairman Roger Lewentz reacted euphorically to the forecasts in Rhineland-Palatinate.
“It's like a World Cup final.
You want to win and leave the field as a winner.
We're going ahead, that's a very clear government mandate, ”said Lewentz on Sunday in Mainz.
He found the reason for the strong result in Prime Minister Malu Dreyer.
"Malu Dreyer and SPD, they belong together."
Update from March 14th, 6:50 p.m.:
The CDU top candidate Christian Baldauf has admitted a clear defeat.
At the same time, he congratulated Prime Minister Dreyer for her election victory.
With a view to a disappointing election evening, he addressed his party with clear words: “I advocate not hanging your head.” Baldauf recalled that a few weeks ago the polls looked different.
In fact, the SPD's election victory did not look certain in advance.
Forecasts from Rhineland-Palatinate show clear election victory for the SPD
Update from March 14, 6.15 p.m.:
The SPD has left the CDU far behind in Rhineland-Palatinate.
A continuation of the traffic light coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP is possible, but a GroKo with the CDU would also have a majority.
As things currently stand, the CDU cannot form its own government without the SPD.
First forecasts from Rhineland-Palatinate: SPD clearly wins the state election
Update from March 14th, 6 p.m .:
The first forecasts for the state election (ARD):
SPD: 34.5%
CDU: 26%
AfD: 10.5%
FDP 6.5%
Greens 8.5%
Left: 2.5%
Free voters: 5.5%
Others: 6%
Update from March 14th, 5.30 p.m.:
The election rooms in Rhineland-Palatinate will close in half an hour.
The first forecasts for the state election in 2021 may then be published.
Then it remains to be seen whether the SPD can hold on to the government.
The popularity ratings of Malu Dreyer as Prime Minister could do their part.
Update from March 14th, 4:15 p.m.:
The first concrete forecast is available at 6 p.m.
The numbers will be published just in time for the polls to close.
They are based on voter surveys at the polling stations and, in the case of elections, usually provide a very precise reference point for the later election results.
The forecasts from Rhineland-Palatinate are continuously supplemented with new counts so that they become more and more precise as the evening progresses.
Forecasts for the state election in RLP: voter turnout higher than the numbers from Sunday show
Update from March 14th, 2.30 p.m.:
In the state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate, the turnout was 52 percent until noon on Sunday at 12:00 p.m.
This was announced by State Returning Officer Marcel Hürter in Mainz.
Random checks in selected municipalities resulted in a share of the urn voter share of 7.5 percent by noon, a further 44.5 percent had already voted by postal vote.
Because of the high number of postal voters, it was initially very quiet in the polling stations.
Due to the corona pandemic, the usual hygiene measures such as wearing medical masks and keeping your distance apply.
Voters are also asked to bring their own pen.
State election forecasts for Rhineland-Palatinate - Malu Dreyer is optimistic
Update from March 14, 1:30 p.m.:
Will be the reigning
Prime Minister Malu Dreyer (SPD) re-elected today in Rhineland-Palatinate?
Dreyer, who has been head of government since 2013, was confident when she cast her vote on Sunday morning.
"But you won't know exactly until tonight." There is no mood of change.
Last polls saw the SPD in front of the Christian Democrats with their top candidate Christian Baldauf.
The CDU parliamentary group leader wants to replace the SPD after 30 years in power.
+
Malu Dreyer (SPD), Prime Minister of Rhineland-Palatinate, casts her vote in the state elections.
© Thomas Frey / dpa
Dreyer led the only traffic light coalition in a German country for the past five years.
She would like to continue to govern with the Greens and the FDP.
Neither the green top candidate Anne Spiegel, nor the top candidate of the Liberals, Daniela Schmitt, entered the election campaign with a coalition statement.
State elections in Rhineland-Palatinate - recent polls indicate a close race
Update from March 14th, 10:29 am:
In Rhineland-Palatinate, according to the latest surveys, there is likely to be a close race for the election victory.
Prime Minister Malu Dreyer of the SPD and her challenger Christian Baldauf (CDU) are therefore close to each other.
While the Social Democrats come to 30 to 33 percent, the CDU can count on 28 to 29 percent.
The Greens can look forward to a doubling of the voting share of the previous state election with ten to twelve percent.
For the FDP, the polls see between six and a half and nine percentage points.
The AfD would come to nine to ten percent, on the other hand, the left with only three percent would clearly fail at the five percent hurdle.
In contrast, the Free Voters can hope for their first entry into the Mainz state parliament.
Some surveys saw this at just over five percent.
Update from March 14th, 8:56 a.m.: Election
Sunday in Rhineland-Palatinate has begun.
The polling stations have been open for almost an hour.
Can Prime Minister Malu Dreyer bring her lead from the polls to the finish line?
We'll know in a few hours.
Forecast for the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate: head-to-head race - will Dreyer be overtaken at the finish line?
Update from March 13, 9:25 p.m.:
According to current surveys on the state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate, things are getting tighter for the SPD.
According to an
INSA survey carried out
on behalf of
Bild
, the SPD has lost another percentage point and is now just ahead of the CDU with 32 percent, which remains at 29 percent.
The AfD also posted slight gains, which rose from 9 to 10 percent.
Greens (10 percent) and leftists (3) remain stable, the other parties lose 4.5 points and are 5 percent.
Update from March 12th, 10:05 am:
There are only two days left before a new state parliament will be elected in Rhineland-Palatinate.
The SPD seems to have good cards to continue to provide the Prime Minister.
According to the current ZDF “Politbarometer”, little is happening compared to the previous week: The ruling party SPD remains at 33 percent, the CDU with four percentage points behind at 29 percent.
They are followed by the Greens (10 percent), who are currently in government with the FDP and have lost one percentage point.
According to this poll by the Wahlen research group, the Liberals fall slightly to 6.5 percent.
The left stays at 3 percent.
Also interesting is the result of the free voters, who are not yet in the Rhineland-Palatinate state parliament: They gain one percentage point compared to the previous week and come to 5 percent.
So you can hope to move in on election night.
Due to a certain margin of error in surveys, this is not yet certain.
So far, 31 percent do not yet know whether and who they want to vote.
According to this survey, the traffic light coalition has a majority.
Prime Minister Dreyer (SPD) was open to a continuation of this coalition *.
At 58 percent, a majority of Rhineland-Palatinate residents would like her to be Prime Minister again.
This puts it clearly ahead of Christian Baldauf (CDU), for whom a total of 28 percent opted.
Institute |
date |
SPD |
CDU |
AfD |
FDP |
Green |
The left |
Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INSA / image |
03/12/2021 |
32 |
29 |
10 |
7th |
10 |
3 |
5 |
ZDF political barometer |
03/11/2021 |
33 |
29 |
9 |
6.5 |
10 |
3 |
9.5 |
INSA / image |
03/09/2021 |
30th |
30th |
10 |
6th |
12th |
3 |
9 |
ZDF political barometer |
05.03.2021 |
33 |
29 |
9 |
7th |
11 |
3 |
8th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
02/25/2021 |
30th |
31 |
9 |
7th |
12th |
3 |
4th |
INSA / image |
02/23/2021 |
31 |
33 |
9 |
6th |
12th |
3 |
3 |
ZDF political barometer |
02/05/2021 |
31 |
33 |
7th |
5 |
13th |
4th |
7th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
01/14/2021 |
28 |
33 |
8th |
6th |
15th |
3 |
7th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
12/10/2020 |
28 |
34 |
9 |
5 |
15th |
3 |
6th |
INSA / picture |
October 21, 2020 |
27 |
33 |
10 |
5 |
14th |
5 |
6th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
09/10/2020 |
26 |
34 |
9 |
6th |
17th |
4th |
4th |
State election 2016 |
03/13/2016 |
36.2 |
31.8 |
12.6 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
2.8 |
7th |
Update from March 11, 12.23 p.m.:
Around 3.1 million eligible voters are called on Sunday in Rhineland-Palatinate to elect a new state parliament.
Prime Minister Malu Dreyer's SPD is fighting with the CDU for challenger Christian Baldauf for the position of the strongest force. In surveys, both parties have recently been in a neck-and-neck race.
A total of twelve parties and an electoral association are competing for the 101 seats in the Mainz parliament.
Because of the corona pandemic *, according to the state election management, significantly more people have already cast their votes by postal vote than usual.
After 30 years in the opposition, the CDU wants to replace the ruling SPD.
In the polls it looked like it could become the strongest force for a long time.
But the SPD is on the upswing a few days before the election and was able to overtake the CDU, plagued by the mask affair, in a survey: The
ZDF
recently forecast 33 percent for the SPD, while the CDU fell behind with 29 percent.
A survey by the
Bild
newspaper found both parties to be on par with 30 percent each.
Baldauf last complained about the mask affair: "It's not a tailwind."
Forecast for the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate: can Dreyer continue the traffic light coalition?
It almost seems as if a pattern is repeating itself: Even in the state elections in 2016, the CDU was long ahead in polls, but was overtaken by the SPD on election evening.
The then CDU top candidate Julia Klöckner had to admit defeat.
The SPD is threatened with a bad election result this year.
The previous negative record was the state elections in 1955 with 31.7 percent.
If the head of government were to be directly elected, the polls show that between 53 and 59 percent of those questioned would choose Dreyer and 28 percent to 29 percent would choose Baldauf.
According to surveys, Dreyer can continue the traffic light coalition forged in 2016 made up of the SPD, FDP and the Greens.
The Greens come up with results between eleven and twelve percent, the FDP between six and nine percent.
According to a
ZDF
survey, it would just barely be enough for a red-green coalition.
Both parties would need the FDP for a majority.
The left, in turn, would fail again with three percent at the five percent hurdle.
According to the latest surveys, it is not enough for black and green either.
A majority would have a Jamaican alliance including the FDP.
The AfD is categorically ruled out as a coalition partner for CDU top candidate Baldauf.
Mathematically, there is also the possibility of a grand coalition with the SPD.
But this variant is generally considered to be the most unlikely.
State election in Rhineland-Palatinate: Dreyer's SPD loses in polls - head to head with the CDU
Update from March 9, 5:01 p.m.:
A few days before the state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate on Sunday, a head-to-head race between the ruling SPD and the opposition CDU is emerging.
As the
Bild
newspaper (Wednesday edition) writes, citing a representative survey by the Insa Institute, the CDU has lost three points compared to the February survey and is 30 percent.
The SPD loses one point and is also 30 percent.
The previous traffic light coalition made up of the SPD, FDP and the Greens together has 48 percent and could defend its parliamentary majority.
But a Jamaica coalition of the CDU, the Greens and the FDP would also achieve 48 percent.
Theoretically, a coalition of the SPD and CDU is also conceivable, which would come to 60 percent, but is considered politically unlikely.
Insa boss Hermann Binkert told the
picture
: “Both the CDU and the SPD can become the strongest force in Rhineland-Palatinate.
For both big parties, however, it is even more important than being ahead to win the FDP and the Greens as coalition partners. "
In the state elections in 2016, the SPD achieved 36.2 percent, the CDU 31.8 percent, the AfD 12.6 percent, the FDP 6.2 percent, the Greens 5.3 percent, the Left 2.8 percent and the others Parties together 5.0 percent.
Survey hammer shortly before the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate: Dreyer's SPD flies past the CDU
Update from March 5th, 5:34 pm:
According to the current ZFD “Politbarometer”, the SPD is ahead in Rhineland-Palatinate, replacing the CDU as the leading party.
As a result, the SPD with head of government Malu Dreyer * comes to 33 percent (+2 percentage points compared to February), the CDU with challenger Christian Baldauf * only 29 percent (-4 percentage points).
Behind are the Greens (11 percent), who also lose easily.
It is followed by the AfD (9 percent) and FDP (7 percent), which each gained two percentage points.
Update from February 25, 10:30 a.m.:
A head-to-head race is emerging before the state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate.
A survey published on February 25 by the Infratest dimap institute for the SWR shows that the gap between the ruling SPD of Prime Minister Malu Dreyer and the opposition CDU is small.
The CDU of Dreyer challenger Christian Baldauf is currently 31 percent - and thus still ahead.
The SPD follows directly with 30 percent.
Only one percentage point difference.
The CDU has lost two percentage points since mid-January, while the Social Democrats gained two percentage points.
The Greens cut in the forecast weaker than in the previous month and would currently be 12 percent.
A minus of three percentage points.
The FDP achieved seven percent and thus a gain of one percentage point.
And the left remains stable at three percent and is thus still below the five percent hurdle.
This creates the following picture: According to the polls, the - currently ruling - traffic light coalition of the SPD, FDP and the Greens would still have a majority in the Mainz parliament.
Update from February 24th, 2.30 p.m.:
A new survey from February 23rd shows: The SPD has narrowed its distance to the CDU.
The ruling SPD is currently 31 percent, the CDU 33 percent.
According to the
survey by the opinion research institute Insa - commissioned by
Bild
- the Greens have lost two percentage points of approval and are now 12 percent - compared to the previous month (January 23).
FDP (6 percent), Left (3 percent) and AfD (9 percent) remain unchanged.
The research group Wahlen made a similar prognosis for ZDF at the beginning of February.
According to the polls, Prime Minister Malu Dreyer's red-yellow-green coalition would still have a majority.
State election 2021 in Rhineland-Palatinate: polls see CDU ahead - Malu Dreyer is still popular
First report from January 29th, 9:40 a.m .:
Mainz - For Prime Minister
Malu Dreyer (SPD)
the omens look good.
The state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate * will take place on March 14th in 2021.
The
polls
indicate that this time the CDU will be the strongest force in the state parliament and thus overtake the Social Democrats.
For the
traffic light coalition
, with which Malu Dreyer rules, there should still be a majority again.
Since the last state election, the balance of power between several parties has shifted.
A slight gain for the CDU * contrasts with a significant loss for the SPD *.
The polls for the RLP state election 2021 also show the great gains of the Greens, which have now clearly
overtaken
the
AfD
*.
The FDP should manage to return to the Mainz state parliament, while
Die Linke
* is expected to be below the 5 percent hurdle.
Surveys on the 2021 state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate
For all eligible voters who would like to compare the positions of the parties before the election, there is again the Wahl-O-Mat Rheinland-Pfalz *, which offers assistance.
State election forecasts for Rhineland-Palatinate show several possible coalitions
The SPD is predicted to lose around eight percentage points.
A new edition of the
coalition
of SPD, Greens and FDP * is still possible.
In the case of Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen *, the election researchers see a gain of around ten percentage points.
In principle, according to the
forecasts
for the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate,
black-green-yellow is also
possible.
But there is no mood of change in the state.
The
ruling parties
appeared at the beginning of the election year emphasizes satisfied with the cooperation.
Christian Baldauf
, the top candidate of the
CDU
, is therefore not the top favorite for the office of Prime Minister.
After the RLP state election, he must hope
to bring the
Greens
and
FDP together
in a new coalition.
Finally, there is still the possibility that the election result will differ significantly from the forecasts.
If the two obvious coalitions of three parties do not work out, a
GroKo
remains the
stopgap
solution.
If the CDU and SPD then form a coalition, Baldauf would probably replace Dreyer as the candidate of the strongest party.
Popularity of the top candidates: This is what the polls for the RLP 2021 state election say
When it comes to the
top candidates
, the incumbent Prime Minister again has the
popularity ratings
on her side.
This was shown again in January 2021 in a survey by SWR on the occasion of the state election in Rhineland-Palatinate.
In the opinion of the top candidates of the parties, Malu Dreyer achieved the best value by a large margin.
71 percent of those surveyed were satisfied or very satisfied with the incumbent.
With Christian Baldauf it was only 33 percent.
(rm) * Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network
List of rubric lists: © AFP / ARMANDO BABANI
