The current forecasts reinforce the hope of the free voters to move into the state parliament.
In the first projections, the party creates the five percent hurdle.
Update from March 14th, 9:10 p.m.:
The results are solidifying: The free voters have the best chance of entering the Mainz state parliament.
In view of this, federal party leader Hubert Aiwanger is already hoping for the big hit - moving into the Bundestag in September.
“That is a very strong performance.
People see the Free Voters more and more as a new down-to-earth, bourgeois party in all of Germany, ”said Aiwanger on Sunday evening.
The goal is a nationwide breakthrough for Free Voters, said Aiwanger - especially at a time when the “large former people's parties” were more and more disappointing and making headlines with scandals;
a clear swipe at the Union.
"We want to become the new liberal-conservative force also at the federal level," said Aiwanger.
"Civil coalitions must be possible again." Germany must be governed sensibly again instead of increasingly falling under the ideological wheels.
The Free Voters also run for the Bundestag election and hope not only for their first entry into parliament, but also for a joint government with the Union and FDP.
In the last two federal elections, however, the free voters with 1.0 percent each clearly failed because of the five percent hurdle.
Free voters before a big leap in Rhineland-Palatinate - forecasts see the party on course towards the state parliament
Update from March 14, 6:37 p.m
.: According to the 6 p.m. forecast from
ARD
and
ZDF
, the free voters are currently 5.5 percent.
This could enable the party with top candidate Joachim Streit to enter the Mainz state parliament.
However, the first numbers should be viewed with extreme caution, as an increased proportion of postal voters is expected this year due to the corona pandemic.
The first predictions of the election results are therefore considered to be relatively uncertain.
State election of Rhineland-Palatinate: CDU loses heavily, free voters probably make a leap into parliament
SPD: 34.7%
CDU: 26.0%
AfD: 10.4%
Greens: 8.3%
FDP: 6.3%
Free voters: 5.7%
Left: 2.4%
Other: 6.2%
Free voters: Aiwanger's party before coup - a record result beckons in Rhineland-Palatinate
+
Joachim Streit is currently district administrator - he wants to join the state parliament of Rhineland-Palatinate with the free voters.
© Harald Tittel / dpa
First report from March 14, 6:06 p.m
.: Mainz - SPD and CDU as rivals for the State Chancellery, FDP and Greens as potential coalition partners - the focus of the polls in Rhineland-Palatinate rests on these four parties.
But shortly before the state elections, it seems as if yet another actor could unexpectedly step onto the state political stage: a sixth parliamentary group.
In addition to those mentioned and the AfD.
Because at least the pollsters from infratest dimap (on behalf of ARD) and the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF) see another party in their polls on a hopeful course towards the five percent hurdle: the free voters.
It would be the first time that the group around party leader and Bavaria's Vice-Prime Minister Hubert Aiwanger moves into parliament in Mainz.
In general, the Free Voters have never made it into a state parliament outside of Bavaria - the small party has never made it beyond 3.9 percent in Thuringia in 2009 and 3.4 percent in Saxony in 2019, despite some great ambitions.
A record result is therefore in prospect.
Even though the Free Voters in Rhineland-Palatinate are thriving: the latest polls predicted a result between three and five percent.
And not directly a "gmahte Wiesn", as the farmer Aiwanger would possibly put it.
State election in Rhineland-Palatinate: Free voters about to make a big leap - top candidate dispute as entrepreneur-lawyer
If the move succeeds, the postponement could have serious political consequences.
Together with the SPD and the Greens, the Free Voters could even form a coalition, according to a survey by ARD.
Whether this is a desirable option for Prime Minister Malu Dreyer remains to be seen - in any case, the pressure on the Rhineland-Palatinate FDP for its most prominent representative Volker Wissing (incidentally not the top candidate of his party) could grow in coalition talks.
The reasons for the success of the survey cannot be clearly stated.
But top candidate Joachim Streit should play a role.
The district administrator of the Eifelkreis Bitburg-Prüm also presented itself as a lawyer for (small) traders in view of the corona measures.
“Before I became mayor and district administrator, I was self-employed myself.
I know what that means when you are sick yourself as a solo self-employed person and have no income, ”he said, according to
Deutschlandfunk,
at an event organized by the Dehoga gastronomy association.
According to his own statements, he does not actually want to play the majority maker: "We Free Voters will not be the orange at a replacement traffic light."
Free voters could create a surprise in Rhineland-Palatinate - a lesson for the CDU?
In Rhineland-Palatinate there are already coalitions with the participation of the free voters.
In Neuwied's city council there is a “papaya coalition” made up of the CDU, the Greens and Free Voters.
Perhaps that would also be closer to the dispute's faction in the event of an election success - purely hypothetical, the Greens are unlikely to turn their backs on the traffic lights without a need.
When the party won the Bavarian state elections, it was also seen as a lesson for the CSU.
Various media described the new ruling party as “meat from the flesh of the CSU”.
The situation in the state may be very similar.
For a long time, the free voters hardly appeared in the polls.
It is clear, however, that the party had cancer for a long time at 2 to 3 percent - and only crawled towards the five percent hurdle in the last few weeks with the CDU's small nosedive in the survey.
Aiwanger - himself a persistent advertiser for economic easing in the crisis - in any case hopes that the voters will now rely on political experience from local politics that may be closer to people: Parliament! ”He tweeted on Friday under the hashtag“ #gesundermenschenverstand ”.
Whether that will be enough for the state elections - it remains to be seen.
In any case, the Free Voters are way ahead of a nationwide established party: The Left will probably have no chance on Sunday.
(
fn
)
