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Data analysis for the election in Baden-Württemberg: Greens strong in all age groups

2021-03-14T23:25:32.521Z


In Baden-Württemberg, the Greens dominate in all age groups and score points with female voters. The FDP wins votes from the competition and convinces younger people, the AfD loses significantly. The analysis.


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Voting in Mannheim: In Baden-Württemberg the Greens are a people's party

Photo: Uwe Anspach / dpa

The Greens historically strong, the CDU historically weak: In the state elections in Baden-Württemberg, Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann and his party clearly defended their position as number one in the southwest.

According to projections, the Greens come to around 33 percent and are by far the strongest force in the Stuttgart state parliament.

He understands the result as an "order to continue serving our country as Prime Minister," says Kretschmann.

It is now a matter of "forming a reliable and stable government".

A continuation of the green-black coalition is just as possible as a traffic light alliance with the SPD and FDP - possibly even a green-red alliance is an option.

How did this result come about?

Who won votes from the competition?

The overview.

The

Greens

convinced especially former CDU voters: About 70,000 of them gave the party of Prime Minister Kretschmann her voice.

This emerges from an analysis of the preliminary voter migration by Infratest dimap for the ARD.

The Greens also chased away the SPD (25,000) and the AfD (5,000) voters.

In contrast, they lost 30,000 votes to the FDP and 70,000 to other parties.

75,000 former Green voters did not vote this time.

63.7 percent of those eligible to vote cast their votes.

This means that

voter turnout was

lower than in the last two state elections in 2016 and 2011.

The

CDU

gained 55,000 former AfD voters.

Incidentally, she lost in all directions - including to the non-voter camp.

110,000 former CDU voters did not vote this time.

The Christian Democrats lost 10,000 votes to the

SPD

.

In addition, the Social Democrats also won 5000 votes from the AfD.

In contrast, the SPD lost votes to the Greens (25,000), the FDP (15,000) and other parties (25,000).

60,000 former SPD voters did not vote this year.

The

FDP

took votes from all parties represented in parliamentary groups in the future: 55,000 from the Christian Democrats, 35,000 from the AfD, 30,000 from the Greens and 15,000 from the SPD.

The Liberals lost 25,000 to other parties, 40,000 former FDP voters did not vote this time.

The

AfD

lost votes to all other parties.

In addition, 110,000 former AfD voters did not exercise their right to vote this year.

Greens dominate in all age groups and score points with women

A look at voting behavior according to age shows that the Greens are a people's party in Baden-Württemberg.

You are the

strongest force

in all

age groups

.

They got their best result in the group of 45 to 59 year olds (35 percent), their worst among the 25 to 34 year olds (25 percent).

In this age group alone and among voters over 70, the Union comes somewhat close to Prime Minister Kretschmann's party.

Also noticeable: Young voters sympathize with the liberals.

Among the 18- to 24-year-olds, the FDP ranks second with the Union with 15 percent.

If you look at voting behavior by

gender

, it

becomes clear that the

Greens do particularly well with women.

37 percent of the voters voted for the party of the head of government - compared with 28 percent of the voters.

The AfD, however, voted mainly men: 13 percent - compared with 7 percent women.

In the FDP, too, the electorate was predominantly male.

In the case of the CDU, SPD and the Left, there are no discrepancies worth mentioning when it comes to voting behavior by gender.

The analysis by level of education shows that the Greens are in

first place by a clear margin

in the group with a higher

level of education

.

Here they got 37 percent of the vote, the Union follows with 20 percent, beaten in second place.

For people with a low level of education, the Union won 29 percent of all votes.

Just behind: the Greens with 27 percent.

Third place is shared by the SPD and AfD with 15 percent each.

In Rhineland-Palatinate, the SPD became the strongest force under Prime Minister Malu Dreyer.

The data analysis on the local voter migration can be found here.

Icon: The mirror

Source: spiegel

All news articles on 2021-03-14

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