We are in the super election year 2021: While the Union is falling in the polls, the Greens are benefiting.
What does this mean for the formation of a government after the federal election?
Munich - "There is a mood of change in the country." With these words, CSU boss Markus Söder commented on the Union's most recent polls.
In a survey by the Kantar opinion research institute, the CDU / CSU had slipped to a bitter 25 percent.
In mid-January 2021, it was still 36 percent in the so-called “Sunday trend” - now it is eleven points less.
Federal election 2021: Greens reap approval - only two points behind the Union
At the same time, the Greens are apparently currently managing to use the Union's losses for themselves.
The currently weakest opposition party in the Bundestag comes to 23 percent.
The tendency is increasing.
As a result, people in the green camp have long since made friends with the idea of appointing the head of government after the upcoming federal elections (September 26th).
Even if it is far from clear whether the Greens will put a candidate for chancellor or a candidate.
The chairmen Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock have not yet decided which of the two should lead the party to chancellorship.
The K question has not yet been answered in the Union either.
In addition to CDU boss Armin Laschet, Söder is also considered a promising candidate.
The SPD sends Federal Finance Minister Olaf Scholz into the race.
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Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck negotiate the candidacy for chancellor with the Greens.
© dpa / Hendrik Schmidt
CDU in the opposition?
That only happened under three Federal Chancellors - "the situation is very serious"
Regardless of personnel issues that still need to be clarified, one thing is certain, according to the latest survey results: The coalition negotiations after the federal election will be extremely exciting.
Because the formation of a government without the Union suddenly seems conceivable.
That was the last time under Gerhard Schröder: "The situation is very serious", Söder commented on the current situation to the
Bild newspaper
.
There is no longer a subscription from the Union to the chancellorship.
The CDU and CSU would have to show that they still have strength and ideas.
German governments without CDU / CSU since 1949
Cabinet Brandt I and II: SPD and FDP
Cabinet Schmidt I, II and III: SPD and FDP
Cabinet Schröder I and II: SPD and Greens
Federal election 2021: Groko ade - Germany is about to form a new government
If the Union does not succeed in stopping the ongoing negative trend, it threatens to become the big loser in the federal elections and to lose its political responsibility.
But by which coalition will Germany be governed?
A look at the possible government alliances shows that answering this question is anything but easy.
Since 1961, no party has been able to achieve an absolute majority in the German Bundestag.
So far there has already been a black-yellow coalition (CDU / CSU and FDP), a grand coalition (CDU / CSU and SPD), a social-liberal coalition (SPD and FDP) and a red-green coalition (SPD and Greens).
However, according to current surveys, none of these tried and tested alliances achieved a majority.
A novelty in the German Bundestag therefore seems possible.
Federal election 2021: Kenya, Germany, Jamaica - three-way alliances are possible
A “new” coalition could also include the Union.
There may be majorities for a Kenya coalition (CDU / CSU, Greens and SPD), a German coalition (CDU / CSU, SPD and FDP) and a Jamaica coalition (CDU / CSU, Greens, FDP).
Although this alliance failed after the previous federal election, such a coalition is conceivable - provided the Greens are interested.
As was heard on the sidelines of the state elections in Baden-Württemberg, an alliance of the Union, SPD and FDP, on the other hand, seems unrealistic.
This makes it more likely that the Greens will participate in the government.
All other parties represented in the Bundestag categorically rule out a coalition with the AfD.
BTW 2021: Greens on the rise - "will be the party that determines it"
Meanwhile, a two-party alliance between the Union and the Greens also seems conceivable.
"I think that it would be attractive for many," commented Söder in December to the
editorial network in Germany
.
Even if the green denials have become quieter in this regard, Habeck and Baerbock still have different ideas.
"We will be the party that largely determines which alliance is formed," said Habeck last in the "Capital" podcast of the news portal
ThePioneer
.
When asked about his favorite coalition, the native Lübeck replied: "If it were a request concert, with the Social Democrats."
Federal election 2021: traffic light or R2G - who do the Greens want to govern with?
Is green-red realistic?
Due to the stagnating approval ratings of the SPD, this two-party alliance and thus a re-edition of the Schröder cabinet seems to be ruled out.
If cooperation with the Union is rejected, the Greens would therefore have to come to terms with a third coalition partner.
Far away from the AfD, there is a re-strengthened FDP and the Left Party.
Habeck recently described the latter as "certainly not capable of governing foreign policy".
Will Germany soon be governed by a traffic light coalition?
An alliance of the Greens, SPD and FDP had recently come into focus again.
In Rhineland-Palatinate, the traffic light is to be continued, in Baden-Württemberg it is at least an option.
In addition, such alliances ruled in Brandenburg (1990-94) and Bremen (1991-95).
In North Rhine-Westphalia (2010), Lower Saxony (2017), Schleswig-Holstein (2017) and Hesse (2018), a traffic light in the state parliament would have been possible, but this failed due to the exploratory talks.
Federal election 2021: Scholz advertises traffic lights - Lindner dampens
After the state elections in March, Olaf Scholz concluded that the traffic light option had now "become very strong".
The SPD also seems to have lost interest in a coalition with the Union after a total of eleven years Groko under Angela Merkel, as the chancellor candidate suggested: "It is possible to govern in Germany without the CDU and CSU being involved."
FDP leader Christian Lindner, on the other hand, was skeptical of a traffic light alliance.
The current discussion would have "a highly speculative character", explained Lindner after the recent state elections.
In addition, the Union is still “closer in terms of content” - despite the “lack of ambition” of the former government partner.
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"It is possible to govern without the CDU and CSU" - in the case of a traffic light coalition, the Union would no longer be needed.
© Sascha Steinach / imago-images
CDU / CSU in the bottom of the poll: Will fight to prevent a red-red-green government "
One thing is certain: the Union would be the clear loser of a traffic light, as Armin Laschet commented in January: “That is the most difficult thing: A coalition of the SPD that covers the social, the Greens and the FDP, which then covers the economic part - what does then the CDU against it?
That is the great danger for both Baden-Württemberg and the Federal Republic of Germany. "
The CDU boss wants to prevent this, as he confirmed to the
German Press Agency
on Monday in Berlin
: "We will fight to ensure that there is no red-red-green government or other constellations." Whether the Union if this succeeds, the coming weeks and months will show.
The federal election campaign has long since begun.
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